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This is the Blog of a Betfair strategy developer.
|
For previous posts, click "The Spoil
Heap" tab at the top of this web page. |
July 10th 2010. Bookie limits on stakes.
In the Forum in
The Community Web Site for Serious Traders, I continually
see complaints about bookies limiting the size of customer's
bets.
I have been betting with lots of bookies for several years and
so far have never had a limit placed on one of my accounts.
That may be due more to luck than good judgement, but a bit of
thought may have saved me from having that problem.
The main complainants are from Arbers - people who bet with the
bookie and lay at lower odds on Betfair for guaranteed winnings.
I would guess that a lot of the bets placed by these Arbers
would need to be placed with bookies in horse racing markets in
the last 10 minutes or so before Race Time, when the markets can
be quite volatile and the odds can change very quickly.
If the bookie doesn't keep pace with events on Betfair, Arbers
can bet with the bookie and lay the same horse at the lower odds
on Betfair for guaranteed winnings.
This is of course a very well known and popular strategy, but
not popular with the bookies.
A large bet placed in the last few
minutes before "The Off" can leave a bookie high and dry with
big liabilities on one runner.
If that horse wins, the bookie makes a loss on that race.
To eliminate that problem, the bookie is going to look for the
cause and limit the size of the bets that he will accept from a
troublesome customer.
I would imagine that if a bookie accepts a load of bets (that is
- he lays a load of bets) and his book is a bit unbalanced, he
would look to place a bet or 2 on Betfair to balance his book so
that he wins whatever the outcome of the race.
That is what I would be doing if I were a bookie.
The bookie is able to do this because his over-round is always
some way above the near 100% book that we always see on Betfair.
The bookie bet odds (which he is laying at) are mostly smaller
than the Betfair bet odds, so most of the time, if a bookie
accepts a large bet (he lays it), he is able to bet at higher
odds on Betfair if he needs to balance his book and also make a
profit on the lay of his customers stake and the Betfair bet.
Now consider a customer who steps
in with a whopping bet at perhaps odds of 5.0 and the Batfair
lay odds have just dropped to 4.8 or 4.6 and there are only a
few minutes before the race starts.
The bookie is stuck with very large liabilities against this
runner, and has no means of reducing that risk.
He has a big problem and must sweat it out hoping that this
runner will lose.
What is the bookie going to do ?
Of course he's going to take a
look at which account has caused the problem and if it happens
again, he'll take action by limiting the bet stake allowed from
that account.
The bookie may not particularly be looking to ban a winning
punter.
He's just getting rid of a problem.
In my opinion, the way to avoid
getting your bet size limited with a bookie is to have a bit of
consideration and put a bit of thought into what we are doing
when we bet with a bookie.
So far, I may have been very lucky in not ever having a limit
placed on any of my bookie accounts, but maybe giving a bit of
thought and consideration to the bookie end of things has
helped.
An "Arbing" spreadsheet for betting with a bookie and laying the
same selection on Betfair for an equal profit or loss after
commission
lives on this web page. "Hedge Your Bookie Bets".
Look towards the bottom of that web page.
Commission is built into the lay side of the calculations on
that spreadsheet.
=============================================
A while ago, I traded a casino bonus for guaranteed winnings
using roulette to reach the required turn-over of my deposit.
Not being a regular casino scalper, I felt a bit guilty about
"winning" in a casino at zero risk, so once I had my casino
profit, I transferred that to my "Sportsbook" section and made
sure I lost that profit by betting it on a horse and laying the
same horse on Betfair.
Once the horse had lost, I had in effect transferred the
winnings into my Betfair account via the successful lay.
There was a small loss on the trade, but the bookie/casino of
course had also got his money back via my losing bet..
I have no idea if this bookie noticed what I had done, but if
anyone happened to check my account, at least I would have
looked like a loser to them, even though I made a nice profit
from my bit of casino scalping.
I've been betting since I was at
school, and I'll be 64 years old in September, so I've seen a
lot of changes in my betting lifetime.
I remember when there were no betting shops and certainly no
Internet.
Now, with new bookies coming on-line every month, bookies are in
the middle of a price war.
They are offering free bets and other incentives as they fight
for your custom.
To be able to take advantage of these offers, we need to be able
to bet with any bookie who offers a bonus of any kind.
To have stakes limited is a big disadvantage, so make sure you
have as many bookies as possible available to you.
When my dad was alive, he would never have believed that in days
to come :-
- a bookie would pay out on a
disqualified horse, as well as a promoted winner. . . That
happened to me last week.
- a bookie would pay out at a
bigger Starting Price if he had taken a smaller price when
placing his bet. . . I had 3 of those last month for a very
nice extra £60 profit.
- a bookie
would give him a "Loyalty Bonus" . . . . I received 2
x £10 last month in loyalty bonuses. . . another free £20.
- a bookie would give him a
free bet simply for opening an account
- a bookie would offer him
more free bets on a regular basis.
Has there ever been a better time
to be a punter ?
Keep on the right side of your bookies and enjoy the very
profitable ride,
Howard. |
June 23rd 2010. Videos for
free bet trading.
I've been trading free bets for several years and wrongly
assumed that lots of people are aware that bookies free bets
offer excellent profits with zero risk if traded correctly.
I've had one or 2 enquiries about the strategy that I have been
trading recently.
This is a free bet strategy but it doesn't involve new sign-up
offers with bookies.
The free bets that I use for this strategy are for existing
bookie customers.I found
that the majority of those few enquirers din't have much
experience of trading Free Bets, so that has prompted me to put some videos
together that describe basic Free Bet Trading.
The videos can be viewed via this link near the top of the web
page >>> :-
Follow this link for videos..
The videos describe how to trade Free Bets to guaranteed
winnings, and also show a live trade or 2.
If you haven't already opened a boatload of Internet bookie
accounts and traded the free bet offers for new customers,
it's your lucky day !
A small fortune awaits you.
If you stake correctly, you simply cannot lose when trading free
bets.
It doesn't matter whether you hit all winners, all losers, or
something in between, and you can even Bet Low and Lay High and still
make good profits. . . . .a traders dream.
Excellent profits are assured unless you make a silly mistake whilst
placing your bets and lays.
Unfortunately, copyright prevents me from showing the bookie web
pages in my videos, but we are able to view the Betfair end of
things ok.
If you have some experience of trading free bets and are
interested in my "existing customer"
strategy,
e-mail me I'll be pleased to hear from you.
Don't worry, I never pester anyone with junk
e-mails or spam, and I don't collect e-mail addresses.
Good luck with your trading, although if you trade free bets to
guaranteed profit, you don't need luck, Howard. |
May 30th 2010. Over £100 profit from trading horse
races with zero risk - - See my post of May 7th below.
If you look 2 posts below, you will see that I removed details
of a strategy and spreadsheet that I had developed at the
beginning of May.
My profit from my May 4th to 16th trades using that strategy
stood at £24.06 after commission, but today stands at £107.
By this time tomorrow, my profit from this one strategy will be
above £120 for this month.
I started these trades on May 4th and have not traded this
strategy every day.
Now that I have some experience of using this strategy, my
profits are much better than when I first started.
This is a risk free strategy, so although I have turned over
quite a large amount of cash, all in £20 bets and lays, I have
done that with nil risk, providing that I was careful to bet and
lay correctly.
If you are interested in what
this is all about,
e-mail me.
and you can have this method for £10.
Payment will be by Paypal with the sheet sent by e-mail.
I will explain what the strategy is before you commit to a
purchase.
I would expect that you will be aware of these trades, but maybe
not how to trade them to guaranteed winnings.
Whether you hit a series of winners or losers whilst making
these trades makes no difference to profits in the long term.
So far, I've hit plenty of losers as well as a few winners and
improved my profit as I have gained more experience making
these trades.
This is a Hedge strategy - we bet and lay a horse in designated
races.
Get the staking right, and you cannot lose. . . . you will have
guaranteed winnings.
I have done a little more work on
my Dutch 2 Markets spreadsheet.
I've been adding a Hedge facility so that we can Dutch a few
scores in the Correct Score market of a football match, and at a
convenient time, Hedge our remaining In Play bets or lays to
exit the whole trade.
Getting the commission right in the calculations has slowed me
down a bit, but the biggest hold up has been family commitments
which unfortunately take priority over everything else.
Good luck with your trades, Howard. |
May 13th 2020. Dutching 2 markets such as Correct Score
and Match odds.
Quite a popular way of trading Betfair's Football Correct Score
market is betting several scores as the match progresses, making
sure that a bet is placed on the winning score of course.
I've seen this done quite a few times in video recordings and
live via a webinar link.
In every trade that I have seen, the trader concerned has seemed
to ad-lib his way through his trade, with bets of different
sizes placed to suit what seemed to me to be based on gut
feeling as to how the game was progressing, and what the stake
size should be.I never
like to see unbalanced staking.
In my opinion, it is much easier to trade out of a position if
the stakes have been balanced for an equal profit or loss across
all outcomes.
That applies to both Dutching (betting or laying several
selections), or Hedging (trading odds movements by betting high
and laying low).
About 18 months ago, I was working on an Under 2.5 Goals
strategy and built a spreadsheet for Dutching across 2 markets.
I needed to bet several scores in Correct Score, and if the game
went according to plan, I could lay those scores to profit.
If goals were scored and the trade went against me, my exit
strategy was to bet (Dutch) more scores, making sure I hit the
winning score.
After betting several scores, I
could exit the market quickly by betting Over 2.5 Goals, or
later in the game, Over 3.5 Goals or Over 4.5 Goals.
If we trade across more than one market, our commission only
applies in one market, not both markets combined.
If we hit a winner in a single market where we also have losing
bets, Betfair deducts the losses of our losing bets from our bet
winnings so that we only pay commission on our profit in that
market.
If we trade in 2 related markets, losses in a second market will
not be deducted before commission is taken off in our winning
market.
We may be trading a football match or a horse race in 2 or more
markets, but Betfair doesn't combine all markets for a single
event.
So, as I was trading Correct
Score and Under/Over markets, I needed a spreadsheet to show my
profit after commission in both markets.
This week, I have expanded that spreadsheet so that it can be
used to lay 17 selections in one market and 8 in another,
showing the result of the whole trade across both markets after
commission deductions.
This sheet can now also be used
to either lay or bet several selections, but I have not combined
betting and laying several selections on the same sheet.
That would be a combination of both Dutching and Hedging which
would be rather more complicated.
To use this sheet, it is important not to trade the same
selection in both markets.
For instance, these would be equivalent markets, so you would
not bet (Dutch) both in different markets, or lay (Dutch) both
in different markets.
You could Hedge of course by betting in one market, and laying
in the other :-
- The Scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 are
the same as Under 1.5 Goals.
-
The Scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-1 are the same as
Under 2.5 Goals.
- All the scores with more
goals than
0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-1 are the same as Over 2.5 Goals.
- 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 plus a
bit of Any Unquoted are the same as the Draw in Match Odds.
- All the away scores are the
same as the Away Team in Match Odds.
- Next Goal = No Goal is the
same as the current score in Correct Score, throughout the
whole game.
- 2 goals or more in Total
Goals is the same as Over 1.5 Goals.
- 3
goals or more in Total Goals is the same as Over 2.5 Goals.
- No Goals Scorer in First
Goal Scorer is the same as 0-0 in Correct Score
There are plenty of other
equivalent markets.
An example below from the Dutch 2 Markets spreadsheet
shows some Bet stakes in Correct Score and Match Odds, staking
to return £100 including our bet stake..
The bottom section shows bets on the 2 teams in Match Odds.
The Top section shows a couple of bets on draw score lines in
Correct Score.
The column that really matters is the end column on the right
Net Both Markets.
Net Both Markets shows profit or loss across both markets after
commission deductions..
If the game ends 1-1 or 2-2, we win £89.18 in Correct Score.
We have 2 losing bets to take off that in Match Odds on the 2
teams of £53.19 and £21.74.
That leaves us with £14.25 profit, but Betfair will take
commission off the £89.18, not the £14.25, so our profit across
both markets is £89.18 less 5% commission, less
£53.19 and £21.74 = £9.79.
If one of the teams win the game we win £25.07 less commission,
minus our 2 losing bets in Correct Score £10.82 = £12.99.
If the game ends witrh a draw score of 3-3, 4-4, 5-5 etc., all
our bets are losing bets, so we lose £85.75.
Our Betfair screens in both markets should look like the 3rd
column from the right, P & L This Market.
|
Stake To Return >>> |
|
100.00 |
P & L |
Gross |
NET |
| |
|
Betfair |
|
BET |
This |
Both mkts |
Both mkts |
|
Name |
Goal |
ODDS |
Adjust |
Stakes |
Market |
P & L |
P & L |
|
0 - 0 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
0 - 1 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
0 - 2 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
0 - 3 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
1 - 0 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
1 - 1 |
|
21.00 |
|
4.76 |
89.18 |
14.25 |
9.79 |
|
1 - 2 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
1 - 3 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
2 - 0 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
2 - 1 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
2 - 2 |
|
16.50 |
|
6.06 |
89.18 |
14.25 |
9.79 |
|
2 - 3 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
3 - 0 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
3 - 1 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
3 - 2 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
3 - 3 |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
Any Other |
|
|
|
|
-10.82
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
Total stakes |
|
|
|
10.82 |
|
|
|
|
Match Odds Market |
|
|
|
|
Net P/L |
|
Rovers |
|
1.88 |
|
53.19 |
25.07 |
14.25 |
12.99 |
|
City |
|
4.60 |
|
21.74 |
25.07 |
14.25 |
12.99 |
|
Draw |
|
|
|
|
-74.93
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
| |
|
|
|
|
-74.93
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
| |
|
|
|
|
-74.93
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
| |
|
|
|
|
-74.93
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
| |
|
|
|
|
-74.93
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
| |
|
|
|
|
-74.93
|
-85.75
|
-85.75
|
|
Total stakes |
|
|
|
74.93 |
|
|
|
I need to do
more testing of this sheet, and after that, it will be
available on my web sites, so if you like a bit of Dutching,
this could be a sheet to consider.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.
|
May 7th 2010. This week's new strategy - Nothing to do
with a Bot.
I've just removed this week's posts.
The strategy and staking I described worked fine, and I proved
that on here by showing the results of some trades.
Unfortunately, I needed to remove details of this staking
method.
If you are interested in what it was,
e-mail me.
Note that I'm not interested in obtaining your e-mail
address.
I don't like Spam, and never send junk e-mails to my spreadsheet
customers or anyone else.
I rely on customers coming to me - - - - - The only
advertising I do is on my web pages.
If you are interested in what was posted on here, I'll be
pleased to hear from you.
Happy trading, Howard. |
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