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Back To The Drawing Board.
Looking for ideas, a betting edge, or a trading strategy ?
This is the Blog of a Betfair strategy developer.

In a gold rush, not everyone is a gold miner.
There are always those who supply tools for the job and other services.

I like to think that I supply picks and shovels for a few Betfair prospectors.

Demonstration Videos

Be A Bookie spreadsheet.  2 videos

Lay the Place market.  2 Videos.

 

My websites.

betformulas.co.uk
Formulas and maths of trading

betandlay.co.uk
Football trading

betandlay.co.uk/strategies
Strategies for horse racing and football trading

betandlay.co.uk/bookie
Be A Bookie.
Laying strategies and spreadsheets for Betfair trading

Old startingstalls.co.uk web site
A very accurate analysis of U.K.  horse racing draw advantages.

Welcome to my Blog

Howard Hutchinson

 

For previous posts, click "The Spoil Heap" tab at the top of this web page.
July 10th 2010.  Bookie limits on stakes.
In the Forum in
The Community Web Site for Serious Traders, I continually see complaints about bookies limiting the size of customer's bets.
I have been betting with lots of bookies for several years and so far have never had a limit placed on one of my accounts.
That may be due more to luck than good judgement, but a bit of thought may have saved me from having that problem.
The main complainants are from Arbers - people who bet with the bookie and lay at lower odds on Betfair for guaranteed winnings.
I would guess that a lot of the bets placed by these Arbers would need to be placed with bookies in horse racing markets in the last 10 minutes or so before Race Time, when the markets can be quite volatile and the odds can change very quickly.
If the bookie doesn't keep pace with events on Betfair, Arbers can bet with the bookie and lay the same horse at the lower odds on Betfair for guaranteed winnings.
This is of course a very well known and popular strategy, but not popular with the bookies.

A large bet placed in the last few minutes before "The Off" can leave a bookie high and dry with big liabilities on one runner.
If that horse wins, the bookie makes a loss on that race.
To eliminate that problem, the bookie is going to look for the cause and limit the size of the bets that he will accept from a troublesome customer.
I would imagine that if a bookie accepts a load of bets (that is - he lays a load of bets) and his book is a bit unbalanced, he would look to place a bet or 2 on Betfair to balance his book so that he wins whatever the outcome of the race.
That is what I would be doing if I were a bookie.
The bookie is able to do this because his over-round is always some way above the near 100% book that we always see on Betfair.
The bookie bet odds (which he is laying at) are mostly smaller than the Betfair bet odds, so most of the time, if a bookie accepts a large bet (he lays it), he is able to bet at higher odds on Betfair if he needs to balance his book and also make a profit on the lay of his customers stake and the Betfair bet.

Now consider a customer who steps in with a whopping bet at perhaps odds of 5.0 and the Batfair lay odds have just dropped to 4.8 or 4.6 and there are only a few minutes before the race starts.
The bookie is stuck with very large liabilities against this runner, and has no means of reducing that risk.
He has a big problem and must sweat it out hoping that this runner will lose.
What is the bookie going to do ?

Of course he's going to take a look at which account has caused the problem and if it happens again, he'll take action by limiting the bet stake allowed from that account.
The bookie may not particularly be looking to ban a winning punter.
He's just getting rid of a problem.

In my opinion, the way to avoid getting your bet size limited with a bookie is to have a bit of consideration and put a bit of thought into what we are doing when we bet with a bookie.
So far, I may have been very lucky in not ever having a limit placed on any of my bookie accounts, but maybe giving a bit of thought and consideration to the bookie end of things has helped.
An "Arbing" spreadsheet for betting with a bookie and laying the same selection on Betfair for an equal profit or loss after commission lives on this web page. "Hedge Your Bookie Bets".
Look towards the bottom of that web page.
Commission is built into the lay side of the calculations on that spreadsheet.
=============================================
A while ago, I traded a casino bonus for guaranteed winnings using roulette to reach the required turn-over of my deposit.
Not being a regular casino scalper, I felt a bit guilty about "winning" in a casino at zero risk, so once I had my casino profit, I transferred that to my "Sportsbook" section and made sure I lost that profit by betting it on a horse and laying the same horse on Betfair.
Once the horse had lost, I had in effect transferred the winnings into my Betfair account via the successful lay.
There was a small loss on the trade, but the bookie/casino of course had also got his money back via my losing bet..
I have no idea if this bookie noticed what I had done, but if anyone happened to check my account, at least I would have looked like a loser to them, even though I made a nice profit from my bit of casino scalping.

I've been betting since I was at school, and I'll be 64 years old in September, so I've seen a lot of changes in my betting lifetime.
I remember when there were no betting shops and certainly no Internet.
Now, with new bookies coming on-line every month, bookies are in the middle of a price war.
They are offering free bets and other incentives as they fight for your custom.
To be able to take advantage of these offers, we need to be able to bet with any bookie who offers a bonus of any kind.
To have stakes limited is a big disadvantage, so make sure you have as many bookies as possible available to you.
When my dad was alive, he would never have believed that in days to come :-

  • a bookie would pay out on a disqualified horse, as well as a promoted winner. . . That happened to me last week.
  • a bookie would pay out at a bigger Starting Price if he had taken a smaller price when placing his bet. . . I had 3 of those last month for a very nice extra £60 profit.
  • a bookie would give him a "Loyalty Bonus"  . . . . I received 2 x £10 last month in loyalty bonuses. . . another free £20.
  • a bookie would give him a free bet simply for opening an account
  • a bookie would offer him more free bets on a regular basis.

Has there ever been a better time to be a punter ?
Keep on the right side of your bookies and enjoy the very profitable ride,
Howard.

June 23rd 2010.  Videos for free bet trading.
I've been trading free bets for several years and wrongly assumed that lots of people are aware that bookies free bets offer excellent profits with zero risk if traded correctly.
I've had one or 2 enquiries about the strategy that I have been trading recently.
This is a free bet strategy but it doesn't involve new sign-up offers with bookies.
The free bets that I use for this strategy are for existing bookie customers.

I found that the majority of those few enquirers din't have much experience of trading Free Bets, so that has prompted me to put some videos together that describe basic Free Bet Trading.
The videos can be viewed via this link near the top of the web page >>> :- Follow this link for videos..
The videos describe how to trade Free Bets to guaranteed winnings, and also show a live trade or 2.

If you haven't already opened a boatload of Internet bookie accounts and traded the free bet offers for new customers, it's your lucky day !
A small fortune awaits you.

If you stake correctly, you simply cannot lose when trading free bets.
It doesn't matter whether you hit all winners, all losers, or something in between, and you can even Bet Low and Lay High and still make good profits. . . . .a traders dream.
Excellent profits are assured unless you make a silly mistake whilst placing your bets and lays.
Unfortunately, copyright prevents me from showing the bookie web pages in my videos, but we are able to view the Betfair end of things ok.

If you have some experience of trading free bets and are interested in my "existing customer" strategy,
e-mail me
I'll be pleased to hear from you.
Don't worry, I never pester anyone with junk e-mails or spam, and I don't collect e-mail addresses.
Good luck with your trading, although if you trade free bets to guaranteed profit, you don't need luck, Howard.

May 30th 2010.  Over £100 profit from trading horse races with zero risk - - See my post of May 7th below.
If you look 2 posts below, you will see that I removed details of a strategy and spreadsheet that I had developed at the beginning of May.
My profit from my May 4th to 16th trades using that strategy stood at £24.06 after commission, but today stands at £107.
By this time tomorrow, my profit from this one strategy will be above £120 for this month.

I started these trades on May 4th and have not traded this strategy every day.
Now that I have some experience of using this strategy, my profits are much better than when I first started.
This is a risk free strategy, so although I have turned over quite a large amount of cash, all in £20 bets and lays, I have done that with nil risk, providing that I was careful to bet and lay correctly.

If you are interested in what this is all about, e-mail me. and you can have this method for £10.
Payment will be by Paypal with the sheet sent by e-mail.
I will explain what the strategy is before you commit to a purchase.
I would expect that you will be aware of these trades, but maybe not how to trade them to guaranteed winnings.
Whether you hit a series of winners or losers whilst making these trades makes no difference to profits in the long term.
So far, I've hit plenty of losers as well as a few winners and improved my profit as I have gained more experience making these trades.
This is a Hedge strategy - we bet and lay a horse in designated races.
Get the staking right, and you cannot lose. . . . you will have guaranteed winnings.

I have done a little more work on my Dutch 2 Markets spreadsheet.
I've been adding a Hedge facility so that we can Dutch a few scores in the Correct Score market of a football match, and at a convenient time, Hedge our remaining In Play bets or lays to exit the whole trade.
Getting the commission right in the calculations has slowed me down a bit, but the biggest hold up has been family commitments which unfortunately take priority over everything else.
Good luck with your trades, Howard.

May 13th 2020.  Dutching 2 markets such as Correct Score and Match odds.
Quite a popular way of trading Betfair's Football Correct Score market is betting several scores as the match progresses, making sure that a bet is placed on the winning score of course.
I've seen this done quite a few times in video recordings and live via a webinar link.
In every trade that I have seen, the trader concerned has seemed to ad-lib his way through his trade, with bets of different sizes placed to suit what seemed to me to be based on gut feeling as to how the game was progressing, and what the stake size should be.

I never like to see unbalanced staking.
In my opinion, it is much easier to trade out of a position if the stakes have been balanced for an equal profit or loss across all outcomes.
That applies to both Dutching (betting or laying several selections), or Hedging (trading odds movements by betting high and laying low).
About 18 months ago, I was working on an Under 2.5 Goals strategy and built a spreadsheet for Dutching across 2 markets.
I needed to bet several scores in Correct Score, and if the game went according to plan, I could lay those scores to profit.
If goals were scored and the trade went against me, my exit strategy was to bet (Dutch) more scores, making sure I hit the winning score.

After betting several scores, I could exit the market quickly by betting Over 2.5 Goals, or later in the game, Over 3.5 Goals or Over 4.5 Goals.
If we trade across more than one market, our commission only applies in one market, not both markets combined.
If we hit a winner in a single market where we also have losing bets, Betfair deducts the losses of our losing bets from our bet winnings so that we only pay commission on our profit in that market.
If we trade in 2 related markets, losses in a second market will not be deducted before commission is taken off in our winning market.
We may be trading a football match or a horse race in 2 or more markets, but Betfair doesn't combine all markets for a single event.

So, as I was trading Correct Score and Under/Over markets, I needed a spreadsheet to show my profit after commission in both markets.
This week, I have expanded that spreadsheet so that it can be used to lay 17 selections in one market and 8 in another, showing the result of the whole trade across both markets after commission deductions.

This sheet can now also be used to either lay or bet several selections, but I have not combined betting and laying several selections on the same sheet.
That would be a combination of both Dutching and Hedging which would be rather more complicated.
To use this sheet, it is important not to trade the same selection in both markets.
For instance, these would be equivalent markets, so you would not bet (Dutch) both in different markets, or lay (Dutch) both in different markets.
You could Hedge of course by betting in one market, and laying in the other  :-

  • The Scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 are the same as Under 1.5 Goals.
  • The Scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-1 are the same as Under 2.5 Goals.
  • All the scores with more goals than 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-1 are the same as Over 2.5 Goals.
  • 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 plus a bit of Any Unquoted are the same as the Draw in Match Odds.
  • All the away scores are the same as the Away Team in Match Odds.
  • Next Goal = No Goal is the same as the current score in Correct Score, throughout the whole game.
  • 2 goals or more in Total Goals is the same as Over 1.5 Goals.
  • 3 goals or more in Total Goals is the same as Over 2.5 Goals.
  • No Goals Scorer in First Goal Scorer is the same as 0-0 in Correct Score

There are plenty of other equivalent markets.
An example below from the Dutch 2 Markets spreadsheet shows some Bet stakes in Correct Score and Match Odds, staking to return £100 including our bet stake..
The bottom section shows bets on the 2 teams in Match Odds.
The Top section shows a couple of bets on draw score lines in Correct Score.
The column that really matters is the end column on the right Net Both Markets.
Net Both Markets shows profit or loss across both markets after commission deductions..
If the game ends 1-1 or 2-2, we win £89.18 in Correct Score.
We have 2 losing bets to take off that in Match Odds on the 2 teams of £53.19 and £21.74.
That leaves us with £14.25 profit, but Betfair will take commission off the £89.18, not the £14.25, so our profit across both markets is £89.18 less 5% commission, less £53.19 and £21.74  = £9.79.
If one of the teams win the game we win £25.07 less commission, minus our 2 losing bets in Correct Score £10.82  = £12.99.
If the game ends witrh a draw score of 3-3, 4-4, 5-5 etc., all our bets are losing bets, so we lose £85.75.
Our Betfair screens in both markets should look like the 3rd column from the right, P & L This Market.

Stake To Return  >>>   100.00 P & L Gross NET
    Betfair   BET This Both mkts Both mkts
Name Goal ODDS Adjust Stakes Market P & L P & L
0 - 0         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
0 - 1         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
0 - 2         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
0 - 3         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
1 - 0         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
1 - 1   21.00   4.76 89.18 14.25 9.79
1 - 2         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
1 - 3         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
2 - 0         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
2 - 1         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
2 - 2   16.50   6.06 89.18 14.25 9.79
2 - 3         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
3 - 0         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
3 - 1         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
3 - 2         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
3 - 3         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
Any Other         -10.82 -85.75 -85.75
Total stakes       10.82      
Match Odds Market         Net P/L
Rovers   1.88   53.19 25.07 14.25 12.99
City   4.60   21.74 25.07 14.25 12.99
Draw         -74.93 -85.75 -85.75
          -74.93 -85.75 -85.75
          -74.93 -85.75 -85.75
          -74.93 -85.75 -85.75
          -74.93 -85.75 -85.75
          -74.93 -85.75 -85.75
Total stakes       74.93      

I need to do more testing of this sheet, and after that, it will be available on my web sites, so if you like a bit of Dutching, this could be a sheet to consider.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.

May 7th 2010.  This week's new strategy - Nothing to do with a Bot.
I've just removed this week's posts.
The strategy and staking I described worked fine, and I proved that on here by showing the results of some trades.
Unfortunately, I needed to remove details of this staking method.
If you are interested in what it was, e-mail me.
Note that I'm not interested in obtaining your e-mail address.
I don't like Spam, and never send junk e-mails to my spreadsheet customers or anyone else.
I rely on customers coming to me  - - - - - The only advertising I do is on my web pages.
If you are interested in what was posted on here, I'll be pleased to hear from you.
Happy trading, Howard.

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