Archive of activity to May 2013

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On this web page :-

Percentage of Bank staking plan
Existing bookie customer - - - - risk free refund profit.
Regular monthly profits from basic trades
Cheltenham etc. analysis
Both Sides" trading
Betdaq to change ownership
Trade a bookie Accumulator Free Bet
Staking Plans web page up and running
Bet and lay the same runner using a single stake
Betdaq or Betfair ?
How to trade a Betfair Fixed Odds free treble
Betfair and Betdaq - - refunds, bonuses and free bets
Exchange to exchange free bets and bonuses.
"Lose Only" and other bookie refunds
Trade a bookie's accumulator bonus offer
Betfair Fixed Odds - - - What a rip off ?
Betting and Laying trebles - without using Betfair Multiples
Lay an accumulator to a profit target
The John Smith's Cup at York
Bookie "IF" refunds
Euro 2012 Free Money

My websites.

betformulas.co.uk
Formulas and maths of trading

betandlay.co.uk
Football trading

betandlay.co.uk/strategies
Strategies for horse racing and football trading

startingstalls.co.uk
A very accurate analysis of U.K.  horse racing draw advantages.

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May 13th 2013.  Percentage of Bank staking plan.
I would guess that most of us are familiar with this topic, so nothing new here then.
I had a request some time ago from a spreadsheet customer for a sheet for recording a "Percentage of Bank" staking plan.
He had a lot of results to input, so I put a sheet together with over 2,000 lines for his results.
Recently, I've had another request for a similar sheet that would be suitable for someone who may be at work whilst several trades take place.
If you are at work, or just need to bet or lay several events that are taking place at the same time, such as several football matches, you cannot keep up with several events during the day and stake sizes that change due to a winners or losers, so I have put a sheet together that gets around those problems.
The date column triggers an update of the staking, so if we want to update after every event we simply input the date.
If we cannot monitor every bet or lay, or we have several bets running at the same time, we can maintain the same stake for several events by simply leaving the Date column blank.
Once we input a new date, the staking looks at the results, updates our Total Bank and sets the next stake to the percentage of our Total Bank that we have set in the spreadsheet.

This Excel file has a Betting sheet and a separate Laying sheet for betting or laying a percentage of our bank.
I used a Percentage of Bank sheet for betting some horse races a while ago.
I found that whilst I was hitting winners, my bank grew quite quickly, and after a loser, it recovered ok once I hit a few more winners.
At that time, I was betting very short odds with a high strike rate in the Place market of horse races.

This Excel file has a Bet sheet and a Lay sheet.
Both of those have a graphical display to show progress of profit or loss from our bets or lays.
Also included is a "Coupled Odds" sheet.
If we decide to Dutch a few runners in a race or football match etc., this sheet shows the combined odds of our runners.
If we decide to bet or lay more than one runner, we can use the Coupled Odds sheet to show the combined odds of all our runners and then input the Coupled Odds into the Percentage of Bank sheet as a single entry on one line of the sheet.
Win or lose with our Dutching, that single line in the Percentage of bank sheet will work just as well as a single bet or lay entry.

My trading buddy and I are using this sheet at present, trading some football matches.
Sometime during the next week or 3, I'll put a video together to demonstrate this sheet and then put it up on my Staking Plans web page.
If you'd like to have a go with this sheet before that, just
E-mail  me and you can have it half price for a fiver.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.

April 25th 2013.  Existing bookie customer - - - - risk free refund profit.
Following on from the post below, I described what I was about to do for 2 up-coming bookie refunds.
A little later, I deleted what I had written as I decided that it's not really a good idea to show in here what I am doing in relation to my bookie accounts.
I may be deleting this post sometime soon as well.

I decided not to trade one of those 2 refund offers.
I could have gone ahead for a small overall profit, but I decided that the very small potential return wasn't worth the effort.

The 2nd trade went very well (as anticipated) for a risk free profit of just over 20.
That trade was just a single bet and a lay.
I won't bore you with the details, but 20 worth of profit is definitely worth trading for, especially if it doesn't involve any risk to my cash.
Do a few of those trades each month and we can have a very nice on-going profit.
If you have a suitable strategy and spreadsheet, the staking is dead easy :-
Try the odds of a few different selections in your sheet to see which pays best.
Find the best close match between bet and lay odds and away you go.

If you are not familiar with bookie refund and bonus trades, note that it doesn't matter if we hit winners or losers and it doesn't matter if our bet odds are smaller than our lay odds - - - which they were in this trade.
Stake correctly, and we can have guaranteed, zero risk profit whatever the result, win or lose.
Bon chance with your bookie refunds, Howard.

April 20th 2013.  Regular monthly profits from basic trades.
I get an e-mail enquiry or 2 almost every week on various staking topics, but in the last few days, I've had several e-mails asking how to make a second income or at least a profit from Betfair trading.
My answer to that type of enquiry is always the same, a description of what I do every month :-
  • Making a profit from trading just within Betfair isn't easy.
    That's the same for everyone, so my advice is to start with the basics - the zero risk stuff, and build from there.
  • Zero risk trades :-
    Have you opened a boatload of bookie accounts and traded the sign-up free bet offers ?
    If you haven't already done trading bookies free bets, a small fortune awaits in free money.
    If you are not already familiar with that, follow this link for demo videos of what to do and how to do it.
    Follow the link down that web page Win Every Time With The One Trading Strategy That Never, Ever Loses and watch the first 2 videos.
  • Now that you have plenty of on-line bookie accounts, do you trade the on-going free bets and bonuses that bookies offer to existing bookie customers ?
    I have a wide range of spreadsheets that I use for trading all sorts of different bookie refunds.
    Some of those refund sheets are available here.
  • Have you tried Arbing ?
    Bet with a bookie and lay the same runner in Betfair at lower odds for guaranteed winnings can be very profitable.
    Concentrate your efforts with the "Best odds guarantee" bookies for best results.
    Follow this link for Arbing spreadsheets.

I don't do Arbing, and I can't remember the last time that I did a bookie sign-up.
I concentrate my efforts on trading bookie refunds that are available to existing bookie customers.
There are plenty of bookie refund offers every week, but usually only a few of them can be traded to guaranteed profit with zero risk.
With practice, it is easy to spot the ones that are worth trading.
The web sites "Betrescue" and "Bet72" are very good for finding on-going bookie refunds.

Bookie refund trades form the basis of my trading.
If I have a go at something else and make a loss, the damage is never catastrophic as I know that my bookie refund trades will recover losses from the hit, usually sooner rather than later.

My monthly profit is nothing spectacular, but it is on-going, and almost nailed on every month.
In my opinion, there is no excuse for losing.
To show a profit, all that we need to do is copy what others are already doing.
There is no need to invent something new.
Apologies if you are already familiar with the above, but as we all know, not everyone is a successful trader.
Follow this link for a free spreadsheet for keeping track of your monthly profits.
A video on that web page describes the sheet and how to amend the graph that goes with it.
As always, good luck with your trades, but if you trade bookie refunds and bonuses, you don't need luck, just some nice, suitable odds,
Howard.

March 24th 2013.  Cheltenham etc. analysis.
During last year's 2012 Cheltenham Festival, I paper traded some lays.
I looked to lay runners from low profile UK stables.
I paper traded again this year using the same selection method.
Since the 2012 Cheltenham Festival meeting, I've noted that the big stables dominate the big jumps meetings throughout the year.
That certainly continued at Cheltenham this year, even though P Nicholls didn't do quite as well as last year.
You will no doubt have noted that W Mullins, and N Henderson dominated the meeting, but chuck in all other Irish stables plus the main UK stables of N Twiston-Davis, P Hobbs, Miss V Williams, A King, JJ O'Niell, D McCain, and a few other prominent trainers of your choice, and all the other smaller trainers are really up against some very strong opposition.
Runners from these other smaller stables are the ones to lay in my opinion.
These smaller stables will have winners throughout the year of course, but at these big meetings, the major stables win almost all the big races.
The small stables just don't have the fire-power to compete in the level weights big races.
So, horses from these smaller stables running in the prestigious races are the ones to lay in my opinion.
The small stables will have their successes, but mostly, the big prizes go to the big stables.

If we look to lay runners from smaller stables that are up against several runners from the big stables, we will probably be laying at big odds, but these small stable horses will not be winning every week.
Most of us will find it unacceptable to lay at big odds for a small lay stake with big lay liabilities, but lay enough of them and in the long term we may be able to come out in front.
The way that I tackle this is to keep my lays in my spreadsheet, race on race, until I hit a winner - - - or fill the spreadsheet, which ever comes first.
An example of that lives here :- My lays including a winner that I layed at odds of 100.0
That web page shows some lays that I placed in 2012 on several different days using my "Be A Bookie" spreadsheet.
My "Spoil Heap" web page describes how that came about.

So what exactly am I driving at here ?
If we do a Google search for maybe "Lay of the day" or something similar, the chances are that the lay tips that we will come up with will not be horses at big odds.
No-one likes to risk a big payout in order to win a small stake, but in my opinion, if we can consistently select enough losers even at big prices, we may be able to come out in front in the long term.
Betfair markets are notoriously efficient, so in theory, it should make very little difference whether we lay big odds or small odds.
Only our selection method will determine our profit or loss.
Also, whatever our selection method is, that is probably factored into the price, so making a profit is never easy whether we are a bettor or a layer.
So, if you are interested in laying big odds, why not try paper trading the next big meeting at Aintree in a couple of weeks time ?
Set aside 100 on paper.
Whatever the Betfair odds are of your selections, divide that 100 by the Betfair lay odds of your runner.
That lay stake will equalize your lays for an equal profit or loss, win or lose.
At the end of the week, add up your successful lays and deduct your winner liabilities.
Select your lays from small stables in races that have several runners from the big stables and see how you get on.
Avoid races for Amateur riders, but look to lay lady riders or amateurs or apprentices who are riding against the top Pro jockeys.
You may be pleasantly surprised by your successes.

Lay stakes at big odds will be small, but winners that you lay will be few and far between, as demonstrated in my example above.
Place enough paper lays and hopefully your successful lay stakes will be more than your lay payout if you hit a winner or 2.
The spreadsheet that I use for this strategy is my "Be A Bookie" speadsheet.
That is a simple Dutching spreadsheet.
When I use this strategy to lay big odds, I leave successful lays in the sheet.
As races take place and I hit losers, the overall lay liabilities continually fall as I hit successful lays which makes laying big odds easier on the nerves.
Even laying at odds of 100.0 becomes acceptable - - - - (almost) - - - - Lol.

I'm no expert tipster, but these are what I look for, for my lays :-

  • Jumps races, hurdles or chases - - - A horse from small stable up against several runners from big stables.
    Avoid runners from a small stable with a top jockey doing the steering.
    Avoid races for amateur riders.
    Concentrate on the big meetings at Cheltenham, Ascot, Kempton, Sandown, Aintree, and maybe Haydock and Doncaster.

Good luck with hitting plenty of losers if you have a go at that,
Howard.

Feb 24th 2013.  "Both Sides" trading update.
If you haven't seen details of the spreadsheet that I put together for trading both the Bet and Lay sides of a trade with just a single stake, follow this link to
my Staking Plans web page
A video on that web page describes the "Both Sides" spreadsheet, how it works, and what it does.
I've have some very positive Both Sides customer feedback this week :-
 
"As promised, here is my profits report for my first 6 days "Both Sides" trading Mon-Sat this week.
6 consistent days profits of 65.00 per day, for a total 387.95, as a result of using "Stop at a profit" short sequences (average 5 bets) each time.
The target settings I used were 6 back 3 lay".

Mick 24th Feb 2013. 

Before using cash for his trades, Mick paper traded favourites in horse race markets extensively for about 3 weeks.

Last week, I put another "Both Sides" sheet together that uses smaller stakes, with corresponding smaller profits.
I don't use that sheet myself as I prefer the original sheet, but it is an option if you decide to have a go with this Both Sides method.
I also have a web page available for my Both Sides customers with more videos and other suggestions for these trades.
That advice can only be viewed by Both Sides paying customers.
A few of my Both Sides customers have opted to compare notes, so their e-mail addresses are also available on there.

For the past week, I have been using the Both Sides sheet for trading the Draw in football matches.
I've had some success with that and have kept my stakes quite small, even with my targets set at Bet 5 and Lay 4 in the spreadsheet.
Trading the Draw in football matches has given me the option of betting after a goal to exit with some profit, if the sheet indicated a lay trade,
although making an exit mid-trade has eaten into my profits quite a bit.
That has worked ok for me with the result that I am now in my longest sequence of trades so far.
.
The main thing is that I'm well in profit on my Both Sides trading.

Whilst looking at trading the Draw, I looked at the web site soccerway.com for some stats.
Soccerway shows the results of the last 5 weeks, so for English Premiership games we have 20 teams x 5 results each = 100 results, which of course is 50 games as each game involves 2 teams.
Looking at those results, we can count up the number of Draw results, which last Friday was 38 in 100, or 19 Draws in 50 games, 38%.
This weekends games produced less draw results, so that average will have dropped a little.
If we convert 38% to odds, we get 100 / 38 = odds of 2.63 which looks a little low to me if we compare that with what is available for the Draw in Betfair Match Odds markets.
I therefore decided that to lay before the Kick Off in games was poor value at odds such as 3.5 etc., so I decided that laying "In Play" at lower odds would be better value.
If a goal goes in and my In Play lay doesn't get matched, I just move on to another game.

It struck me that if those odds of 2.63 are anywhere near accurate (from that very small sample of just 50 games), there could be some value in simply betting the Draw at the bigger odds available.
Nothing in Betfair is that simple, so we can probably expect less draws to come along in the long term.
To work things the other way, to convert odds of 3.5 to a percentage just divide 100 by 3.5 = 28.58 %.
At odds of 3.5 we can expect 14 in every 50 games to end in a Draw, rather that the 19 per game that has happened over the last 5 weeks or so.
The odds of the Draw vary from game to game of course, so these figures are a bit basic.
I've been doing ok using the Draw for my "Both Sides" lay trades, but for my Both Sides bet trades, I'm looking to Home teams, or more likely Place Markets in horse races.
Once I hit a winner and the sheet flips back to indicate a lay again, I'll come back to laying the Draw.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Another major bookie gave me the Red Card treatment 2 weeks ago.
I tried to put a bet on with that bookie, but my stake was limited to zero.
I've had an account with that bookie since before I had an Internet connection, so to get Red Carded after so many years is depressing.
I must admit that I'm getting disillusioned with bookies.
They offer free bet incentives but don't like it if we continually take up their offers.
They offer a Best Odds Guarantee in horse races, but don't like it if we continually bet in those races,  . . . . . and so it goes on.
Surely, if they don't want to accept bets at the odds that they offer, why offer those odds, and if they don't want us to place a bet in order to qualify for a free bet, why offer these incentives in the first place ?
The answer of course is that they probably don't want customers with brains who give a bit of thought to what they are doing.

I must stop moaning.
With my bookie accounts disappearing one by one, I'm now looking for an alternative to dealing with bookies.
At present, this Both Sides sheet is looking promising.
I'll keep you posted on progress.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.

Jan 25th 2013  Betdaq to change ownership.
I received an e-mail from Betdaq yesterday informing me that Ladbrokes will probably take over Betdaq in late February.
Their e-mail told me that one of the things that Laddies will focus on initially is improving liquidity.
That's got to be good news.
To get more money into markets, Laddies will need to encourage existing customers to bet more often with them, plus they will be looking to increase the number of customers.
I imagine that will mean free bets and other incentives for new and existing customers, maybe in time for Cheltenham if we are lucky.

I have several spreadsheets that show how to profit from Exchange Free Bets and other types of exchange sportsbook refunds and bonus payments.
Most of those spreadsheets have videos that describe the spreadsheet and the strategy that goes with them.
If you don't already receive promotional e-mails from Betdaq, it might be a good idea to go into your Betdaq account and tick the relevant box to start receiving their offers.

In the past few weeks, I have started to use Betdaq a bit more often.
Although markets have gaps between the bet and lay odds, - - - a sure sign of poor liquidity, I have found that my bets and lays usually get matched ok.
To achieve that, I normally compare Betdaq with what is happening in Betfair, and offer to bet or lay in Betdaq at whatever odds I would be offering in Betfair.
When I do my trading, I use the normal Betfair and Betdaq screens as most of the time I'm not in any rush.
That's worked ok, and there are the added bonuses of being able to bet using stakes less than 2, and commission is only 3%.
Just recently, Betfair have stopped me watching videos of horse races unless my stake is bigger than 5, so that's another reason for using Betdaq.
So with potential free bets in the pipeline, 3% commission, and almost free videos, Betdaq is beginning to look increasingly attractive these days.
Howard.

Jan 12th 2013.  Trade a bookie Accumulator Free BetVideos including live trades
Over the last 2 or 3 weeks, I've been bogged down something awful trying to work out a formula so that I could put a spreadsheet together for a customer.
Hopefully, that is behind me now, so I can take up where I left off just before Christmas.
Just before Christmas, I had started to put a video together to show how we can trade a bookies free bet  - - - of a free accumulator - - to guaranteed winnings.
The strategy is to bet our Free accumulator with the bookie and then lay each of those same runners in turn in Betfair, one at a time, either until we hit a loser, or lay all the runners in turn and one at a time, if we hit all winners.
Either way, we can exit with a profit providing that the lay odds don't drift too much whilst we are doing that.

A free accumulator bet might conjure up images of a huge profit, but that is not what will happen.
As with other free bet offers, the profit that I expect to extract will be a decent percentage of the free bet stake.
From a normal free bet, I try to profit by 70% or more of the free bet stake, but for a free accumulator bet, we need to aim slightly lower than that.
For a free accumulator, a 50% or 60% profit of the bet stake is very good.
If we are unlucky (we hit winners), and need to lay the whole accumulator, making an exit without a loss is acceptable in my opinion.
Laying accumulators can be a dangerous game if we hit a string of winners.
One way to get around that is to hit a loser as soon as possible for a profitable exit, but we can weigh up the odds before we start our trade, and hopefully trade with a reasonable chance of a profit, even if we end up laying the whole accumulator.
Short and sweet is the best way to tackle these accumulator free bet offers, so if you have a go at these trades, keep the number of selections to the absolute minimum.
A free treble is as big as I am willing to go.
I doubt that I would take on a free 4 timer, and certainly not a free 5 timer or bigger.
Trade a 4 fold or 5 fold, and the potential lay liabilities are likely to be bigger than our potential bet winnings.

The big problem when laying a free bet accumulator is that the bookie bet odds for each of our runners will probably be smaller than each of our lay odds.
If we hit winners, our bet winnings will not grow as fast as our lay liabilities.
The way to get around that is to start with a smaller lay stake than our bet stake.
Then, if we hit winners, our lay liabilities will be less than our potential bet winnings, at least for the first 2 or 3 of our runners.

I had a free 25 accumulator bet just before Christmas that I recorded on video, and I have another 5 free accumulator bet waiting now.
My aim is to explain the strategy and the spreadsheet that I have built for trading free accumulator bets in a video, and put those 2 live trades on the end of it.
This strategy uses a Free Bet trading sheet for the first runner, and then we use a "Lay to a profit target" sheet to lay the rest of the accumulator.
The sheet that I have built shows the progress of our lays, plus the progress of the bookie bet so that we can compare the 2 as the trade progresses.
We need to lay each of our selections one at a time, so that we know the result of one event before we lay the next.
To get around the problem of the odds drifting, we could perhaps select football teams in Match Odds for our 2nd and 3rd selections, but as I prefer horses, I may find time to fit into this video how I go about finding a horse that is likely to shorten. . . . in my opinion.
I'm no tipster, so don't expect anything other than a bit of "Weight of money" theory if I decide to include that.
That works for me occasionally, but as with all things trading, WOM doesn't work every time of course.
My pre-Christmas  free 25 accumulator trade went ok, but if my free 5 accumulator this week goes wrong, in true tradition for my Blog, I'll show the disaster so that you can have a laugh at my expense.
If you've visited my Blog before, you may remember the time I layed a winner at odds of 100.0 and put details of that on here. . . .Lol.

Videos, added here Jan 15th 2012.
Copyright notice.  In the 2 videos below, Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited.  The Sporting Exchange Limited.
Copyright notice.  In the 2 videos below, www.easyodds.com content is shown with the kind permission of www.easyodds.com

Live Trades of 2 x 5 Free doubles
The first of these 2 doubles hits a winner with the first runner, so with the 2nd selection in that double, I lay the whole double to guaranteed profit, whatever happens in that football match - -  win, lose or draw.
The 2nd double hits a loser with the first runner, so no problems there.
Note that, throughout all 3 trades, the lay odds are BIGGER than the bet odds, but a nice profit is still shown on each of the 3 trades.

 

Accumulator Free Bet spreadsheet       10
Use this spreadsheet to trade a Free Bet Accumulator.
The spreadsheet allows inputs for the staking of a 20 fold, but the recommendation is to trade free doubles, trebles or possibly 4 or 5 timers if suitable lay odds can be traded.
Links to the video description shown above, are included within the spreadsheet file.

The 2 sheets shown in the videos can also be used for other types of trades.

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.
Note.  If the file appears to be locked when you open it, just re-name the file and it should then work ok for you.

10


See also my Bookie Refunds web page  for other Free Bet trading spreadsheets with strategies.
Howard.

Dec 16th 2012.   Staking Plans web page up and running.   Plus, meeting bookie turnover.
Today, I uploaded my new Staking Plans web page.
I have only one spreadsheet on there to start with, my "Both Sides" sheet,  but I will probably add more later.

I started to put a "Both Sides" video together on Saturday to show some live trades, but things turned a bit naughty.
I set my profit targets in the "Both Sides" sheet to 5 for both bet and lay.
Unfortunately I hit a loser with my first lay.
If I had carried on and traded the 2nd race that I had lined up, I would have been looking at lay liabilities of over 76.
I placed my lay, but decided that a strategic withdrawal would be a better idea (a retreat), so I bet the same runner with the same stake to exit my trade.
The result of that race was  that I would have hit a loser, so all would have been ok, but that experience showed me just how dangerous things can get if we bite off more than we expect to chew.
I will be setting my bet and lay profit targets to 2 and 2 from now on so that I trade more within my comfort zone.
The financial result yesterday was that I lost -11 using this new sheet, but made more than that from just one of my other trades.
I may put yesterday's experience in my video, as a warning to potential purchasers . . . . Lol.
Fortunately, I've already made far more that 11 quid from using that new sheet, so no damage there really.

Bookie turnover.
You've probably seen plenty of bookie offers of a free bet if you make a deposit and bet on a football game or something similar - - - commonly known as a BOGOF offer  - - - -  or a Bet One, Get One Free offer.
Quite often, free bet offers have a turnover requirement if we hit a winner - - - - get a free bet, but the free bet stake must be turned over 5 times if we hit a winner.
Hit a loser and we don't have any turnover to worry about of course.

The way to deal with bookie turnover, or wagering requirements, is to bias the staking a little when we trade the free bet, to favour the win side of the trade..
Then, if we are unlucky and hit a winner with the free bet, we have plenty to play with at the bookie end of things whilst we meet the turnover.
Here is an example of my trade yesterday.
The offer was a (very rare) free 20, just for making a deposit, with the bet stake included with any winnings . . . . Yippee !!!.
Turnover requirement was 5 times the free bet if I hit a winner with my free bet.
The free bet trading strategy is of course to bet with the bookie and lay the same selection in Betfair, or in my case Betdaq.

I bet and layed Aston Villa playing away at Liverpool, in the hope of hitting a loser, but Villa won the game by 3 goals to 1.
I bet Villa at odds of 10.0 with my bookie and layed at 10.5 in Betdaq.
Normally, we would lay 17.19 to stake for an equal profit or loss, win or lose, of 16.68 at 3% commission, but with the threat of 5 times my 20 to turn over if I hit a winner, I layed 1 less so that my profit was 9 bigger if I hit a winner and 1 less if I hit a loser.
So, hit a winner and I have profit of over 26.
Hit a loser and my profit is only 1 less than normal at 15.

Here are the maths of that :-
Bet 20 at odds of 10.0 with the bookie, lay 16.19 at odds of 10.5 in Betdaq (3% commission).
Win = plus 180 with the bookie, -153.80 lay liabilities in Betdfaq = plus 26.19 profit.
Lose = Zero loss with the bookie as this is a free bet, plus 16.19 less 3% = 15.70 successful lay in Betdaq.

Unfortunately for me, Villa beat Liverpool, so I now need to bet another 80 with the bookie before I can withdraw any winnings.
I bet 20 on 3 football matches today and layed each one of them in Betfair for a total loss of 3.77, so with only one more 20 to bet and lay, my bit of 1 insurance has worked in my favour.
I expect to be more than 20 in profit on the 5 trades combined.

In the past, I've been tempted to simply bet and lay for an equal profit and hoped to hit a loser for a nice profit, but I've come unstuck several times, so now if turnover requirements are involved, I usually look for some big, but close odds to trade, bias the staking by only 1 or so, and that cuts out any problems of meeting bookie turnover if I am unlucky and hit a winner with my trade.
Mostly, trading big odds means that I hit losers, which keeps my bookie happy, but occasionally, I hit a winner.

So, the next time that you see an offer of a free bet, but with turnover requirements attached if you hit a winner, just look to trade some BIG odds with your free bet, lay 1 less than you would normally do, and if you happen to hit a winner, you can come up smelling of roses even after meeting the turnover requirements - - - - easy.
Your lay liabilities from hitting your winner with a lay stake of just 1 less, will be considerably smaller than your bet winnings with your bookie, which means that if you hit a winner, your profit is bigger than if you had hit a loser, and maybe bigger than the original free bet !!

There is a way around most things, especially where free bets and bonus payments are concerned.
As always, good luck with your trades, and meeting your bookie turnover,
Howard.

Dec 13th 2012.  Bet and lay the same runner using a single stake . . . . . . . . . Staking Plan.
I will be adding a Staking Plans" web page to my Strategies web site in the next week or 2.
The first spreadsheet available will have 3 separate staking plans in the same spreadsheet :-
  • Bet to a profit target - Bet until we hit a winner.
    Each bet stake will be aimed at recovering and lost stakes from hitting losers, and showing a profit when we hit a winner.
  • Lay to a profit target - Lay until we hit a loser.
    Each lay stake will be aimed at recovering liabilities from hitting winners, and show a profit when we hit a loser.
  • Combine those 2 staking plans so that we can bet and lay the same runner using just a single stake.
    By combining the 2 staking plans, we can profit from every race.
    We will have either hit a winner with a theoretical winning bet, or we will have hit a loser with a theoretical successful lay.

That does work out in practice when we stake with cash.
The bet stake and lay stake of the 2 staking plans are combined, which gives us just a single bet or a single lay, depending which is biggest.
Once we have traded a few races and we hit a winner followed by a loser, both staking plans complete a sequence and we have a profit that is almost equal to our profit target multiplied by the number of races traded. . . . . . . We profit from every race.
In the video below, I demonstrate lays and bets in 5 races with a target profit of 5 for both bet and lay sides of the trade.
I show how we can place a single lay or bet in each race, and once we hit a winner followed by a loser, we profit by almost 5 from each race.
In my example, the profit would be 5 x 5 = 25, but as the last runner has a losing bet stake involved, the profit falls slightly short of 25.
Instead of a 25 profit, the demonstration hits a profit of just over 23.
Note that these 2 "Profit Target" staking plans can be very risky methods of trading as stakes can escalate if we hit a sequence of winners or a run of consecutive losers.
If you have a selection method that hits plenty of losers with the occasional winner, this method may be of interest to you.
The target stakes need not be equal.
The 2 staking plans work independently, so your lay target could be less than your bet target, or the other way around.
I have put 2 videos together for this sheet.
My intention is to put a 3rd video together to show some live trades, possibly this weekend, using races at Cheltenham.
Once I've done that, I can get on with putting a "Staking Plans" web page together and put this spreadsheet up for sale.
The video below describes the sheet and how we can use a single stake to bet and lay the same runner, and ultimately, profit from every race.
For a bigger view of the video, click the 4 small "Square corners" icon at the bottom right of the video screen.

I hope that all makes sense, Howard.

Dec 4th 2012.  Betdaq or Betfair ?
I've had a Betdaq account for several years, but have not used it much.
Betdaq markets often have gaps of a tick or 2 between bet and lay odds - - a sure sign of poor liquidity - - not a lot of money in the market.
Just recently, I've been looking at using Betdaq more often to take advantage of the lower commission rate of 3% rather than Betfair's 5%. . . . . . the lowest commission rate that I have had in Befair was 4.8% a while back when I was turning over a lot of cash with some lays.

If, like me, you haven't looked at Betdaq very much, I suggest that using Betdaq may be to your advantage.
As you probably know, the 2 exchanges always offer very similar odds.
If they didn't, we would be able to bet in one exchange and lay in the other for guaranteed profit, even after commission.
Now that I have been looking at Betdaq more often, I have realized that I can watch what is happening in Betfair and usually place my bet or lay in Betdaq and get matched at the odds that I would have taken in Betfair, especially if Betfair moves in a favourable direction for me.
Where Betfair goes, Betdaq will always follow - - - if not exactly, at least something very close.
Due to both exchanges mirroring each other, the lack of liquidity in Betdaq doesn't appear to be the big problem that I thought it was.
Offering to bet or lay a tick or 2 bigger or smaller isn't such a big problem as I used to think.
As the 2 exchanges offer very similar odds and almost move as one, I can mostly get matched at the odds that I would have been happy with in Betfair.
I hope I'm not mistaken there.

Also, the odds being a tick or 2 different, can work in our favour.
I have just traded a bookie "Winnings Added" bonus offer today in a Champions League football match.
If you don't have a spreadsheet for trading a "Winnings Added" offer from a bookie, follow this link.
I bet with the bookie of course, and looked at the lay odds in both exchanges at the same time.
Betfair lay odds were 3.55, but Betdaq lay odds were 3.5.
Throw in 3% commission rather than 5% and the zero risk, guaranteed profit from my trade was 5.75 win or lose, instead of 4.85.
That difference of 0.90 is an increase of 18% profit on top of 4.85. . . . . .a massive bit of extra profit.

These are the maths of that :-
When I was in my teens and working in an accounts office before the days of pocket calculators, Diane, a girl who operated a "Comptometer", a mechanical calculator, explained the maths to me for finding what percentage one number is of another :-
Divide your "Is" amount by your "Of" amount and multiply by 100.
So. what percentage "IS" 0.90 "OF" 4.85 = (0.09 / 4.85) x 100 = 18.55%.
90 pence is therefore an increase of 18.55% on 4.85.

Today's bookie "Winnings Added" offer was a bonus equal to my 25 bet stake if I hit a winner.
I bet 25 with the bookie at odds of 3.4 for bet winnings of 60 if I hit a winner.
To work out the percentage to be added to my winnings for my spreadsheet, the question was "What percentage IS 25 OF my 60
bookie winnings ?
(25 / 60)  x 100 = 41.666%.
So the percentage added to my winnings would be 41.67%.
Enter that 41.67% into the spreadsheet, enter bookie bet odds and Betdaq lay odds, and trade to guaranteed winnings whatever the result of my trade win or lose. . . . . Easy - - - a very simple bet with the bookie and lay in Betdaq.
If I am unlucky and hit a winner, the bonus is in the form of a free bet.
If I hit a winner, trade the free bet in the normal way for a free bet and I should still come up smelling of roses with a smaller profit overall.
If I hit a loser, I have 5.75 profit.

Put a few of these extra "Betdaq" profits together and Betdaq begins to look like a very attractive alternative to Betfair.
I don't do all my trading in Betdaq of course, but I'm certainly using it more than I used to, mainly for the 3% commission instead of 5%.
Today's better lay odds were an added bonus.
As always, good luck with your Betfair and Betdaq trades,
Howard.
P.S.  I hit a loser, with my trade,
(the Draw in the PSG - Porto match), so a nice easy 5.75 profit.

Nov 26th 2012.  Video for trading a Free Bet Treble.
I bet my Free Bet treble on Saturday and recorded what happened.
The runners I chose were 3 horses that I hoped would lose so that I could exit to profit as soon as possible.
By doing that, the odds of my runners weren't particularly big, but it was amazing how the stakes mounted up.
The potential profit of 2,330 from just 3 runners made laying beyond the first runner beyond what I was prepared to do, so if I'd hit a winner with my first runner, I would have used another method to recover the losses of my lay liabilities.
Luckily, I hit a loser with my first runner so I didn't need to worry about that.

As described below in my post of November 23rd, I carried on with some theoretical staking to see what would happen.
The staking that I used was the normal spreadsheet that I use when trading a single free bet from a bookie.
The only change that I made in the sheet was to increase the bet stake to match what a winning treble would be doing if I had hit winners instead of losers and the treble had progressed beyond the first runner.
The stakes soon got very large, but the exercise showed that if we trade in this way using short odds, the lay liabilities can be reasonable, and providing that the odds of our selections don't drift before we lay them, we can trade to profit, recovering lost liabilities as we go.
If you need a spreadsheet for trading bookies free bets, follow this link.

Follow the link down that web page "Win every time with the one trading strategy that never ever loses".

Copyright notice. In the video below, BETDAQ content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Global Betting Exchange.
Copyright notice.  In the video below, Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited.  The Sporting Exchange Limited.

 

I hope that makes sense ok.
Note that there is no commission to pay on Betfair Fixed Odds multiples, so the bet side of the trade is just like a similar bet with a bookie, with no commission.
Commission is only involved in the lay side of the trade.
Good luck with finding some close bet and lay odds if you have a go at laying a free bet treble from a bookie or an exchange,
Howard.

Nov 23rd 2012.  How to trade a Betfair Fixed Odds free treble . . . . . . and Staking Plans.
This morning I was looking at an offer of a free bet from Betfair, trying to figure out how I could trade it to profit.
The offer was :- "Bet a 10 Fixed Odds treble at Haydock today Friday, and get a free 10 Fixed Odds treble bet at Haydock on Saturday", or words to that effect.
The solution that I came up with was surprisingly simple :-
Bet the 10 treble on Friday, making sure that I hit a loser, and get my tenner back.
I used a staking plan for recovering my tenner, which I may come back to later.
Then trade the free treble bet as a series of free bets - - - not as a treble.

This is the interesting bit concerning the free treble bet :-
When I get the free Fixed Odds treble bet tomorrow, all that I need to do is use my normal Free Bets sheet to trade each runner in turn.
The idea is to hit a loser as soon as possible, but If I hit a winner, I reckon that I can continue to use my free bet sheet in the normal way for each runner in turn.
That's the theory.   . . . . .  .We will see what happens in practice tomorrow, hopefully in a video.

The bet stake for the first runner will be the 10 free bet.
If that wins, we have a new bet stake of 10 x whatever the odds were that we had for our first runner in our Fixed Odds treble.
Now trade the 2nd runner as a free bet in the normal way, using this bigger bet stake.
With some close odds, our free bet profit from this 2nd runner should recover our lay liabilities from hitting our first winner, and show some profit on top.
If that wins as well, do the same again.
This time, our bet stake would be our 10 x the first bet odds x the 2nd bet odds.
If my theory is correct, the free bet winnings from this 3rd runner should recover the lay liabilities from hitting the 2 previous winners, and show a profit on top, providing that we can get some close bet and lay odds.
If at any point we hit a loser, we should have profit, and if we are unlucky and hit all 3 winners, our bet winnings should cover our lay liabilities and show a profit on top.
Magic, I hope !!

If my theory is correct, each subsequent bet and lay will recover lost liabilities if we have hit a winner in the previous race, or races.
My intention is to chuck a video together tomorrow to demonstrate that, so if you are interested in that, watch this space early next week.
If things don't work out, I'll probably video the disaster instead. . . . . Lol.
I should have my free Fixed Odds treble bet tomorrow, so fingers crossed for some decent odds to trade.
A problem will be the time between placing my Fixed Odds treble and the races taking place.
The odds could move a fair bit.

I'll be looking to hit a loser as soon as possible tomorrow, but if I do hit a loser with my first runner, I'll carry on with the video and demonstrate what could have happened if I'd hit a winner or 2.
That should make for an interesting video.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
I seem to be getting more and more involved in staking plans just recently.
I used one today to make sure that I got my tenner back from placing my 10 Betfair Fixed Odds treble.
With that in mind, I may add a Staking Plans web page to my web sites sometime in the next month or 2.
I have a few Excel spreadsheet staking plans that I have put together over the past year or so, so the ammunition is already in place.
They will require videos and write-ups, so putting them on-line will take a while, in between all the other stuff that I do - - - family commitments etc.
As always, good luck with your trading, Howard.

Nov 22nd 2012.  Spreadsheets for trading offers from Betfair and Betdaq - - refunds, bonuses and free bets
I have put a package of 3 spreadsheets together on
my Refunds web page for trading different refund, bonus payments and free bet offers from Betfair and Betdaq.
Links to videos are provided with 2 of those spreadsheets, and describe trades that I did some time ago, when I put the videos together.
Betfair in particular has some kind of offer every week such as the Mega Minute in football matches, and maybe offers linked to multiples and fixed odds, but the offers to watch for from Betfair and Betdaq are the Lose Only refunds, BOGOF offers of bet one, get one free, and winnings added bonuses.
Unfortunately, offers of those types are a bit few and far between, but should never be missed if you see one.
Trade one of those and profits are nailed on, with zero risk to your betting bank.
When you trade these offers your bank will always go up and never down. . . . It's just a shame that they aren't available every week.
The strategy for all 3 of those is a straight bet in one exchange and a lay in the other.
Stake correctly and it doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser, and it doesn't matter if our bet odds are a bit smaller than our lay odds.
Whatever happens, stake correctly and we have profit.

Trading these exchange refund and bonus offers is just like trading similar offers from bookies except that to balance our trade for an equal profit or loss if we hit a winner or a loser, we need to include commission deductions in both sides of the trade, both bet and lay.
When we trade a bookie refund, we only need commission deductions in the lay side of the calculations - the exchange side of the trade.
The sheets I have for these exchange refunds have commission built into both sides of the trade, bet as well as lay.
If we hit a winner, commission is deducted from the bet side of the trade, and if we hit a loser, commission is deducted from the lay side.
Good luck with those if you have a go at them, although you don't need luck to make a profit when trading refunds and bonuses,
Howard.

Nov 18th 2012.   Exchange to exchange free bets and bonuses.
The bookies got Cheltenham Mania this week, with plenty of free bets available for the 3 days of racing Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
One of the offers was from Betdaq - - Bet 10, get 10 free.
Free bets from exchanges don't come along very often, but when they do, they are always worth trading.
The strategy is of course to bet with one exchange and lay the same selection in the other.
I have spreadsheets for trading different exchange offers to guaranteed winnings with zero risk :-
  • Bet and get a free bet as per this week's offer.
  • Lose Only - - Bet and get a free bet only if we hit a loser.
  • Winnings Added - - Hit a winner and a percentage of winnings will be added.
    I have 2 sheets for that, one for winnings added to bet winnings and another for lay winnings.

As usual with these kind of offers, it doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser, and it doesn't matter if our bet odds are smaller than our lay odds.
Stake correctly, and we cannot lose - - - - we have guaranteed profit.
These sheets include different commission rates for the bet and lay sides of the trade.
The sheets allow us to change those around so that we can either bet with Betfair and lay in Betdaq, or the other way around.
I already have videos for 2 of those sheets, the Lose Only and Winnings Added sheets.
I almost added those strategies to my Refunds web page a couple of weeks ago, but I got involved in other things.
I'll maybe get on with that this week so that they are available for the next bout of "Cheltenham Mania".
What a wonderful disease that is !!
Hope you had a profitable November Cheltenham,
Howard.

Nov 2nd 2012.  "Lose Only" and other bookie refunds.
I uploaded a new web page today with spreadsheets for trading bookie refunds that are available to existing bookie customers.
We have all traded bookie sign-up free bet offers.
The next step is to continue betting with the bookies to take advantage of the free bets, refunds, and bonus payments that bookies use as incentives to keep their existing customers betting with them.
The best time by far for trading on-going bookie refunds is Cheltenham week in March, and to a lesser extent, Royal Ascot in June, but offers that can be traded to guaranteed winnings with zero risk are available every week.
Unfortunately, the Klondike years may be past us now - - - In my opinion, bookies are not as naive as they used to be.

Over the past few years, I have developed a range of spreadsheets for staking lots of different bookie refund offers to profit.
I have put a few of them on a web page, including a sheet for trading bookie accumulator bonus offers. . . using the spreadsheet described in my previous post below of Oct 24th.
Also on that web page is a Lose Only spreadsheet, Percentage Added to winnings sheet, and a Percentage of Losses refund sheet.
Those kind of refund offers seem to be popular with bookies at present, but collectively, bookie refund offers change almost as regularly as the weather.
I don't want to get involved in finding suitable offers for my spreadsheet customers to trade, so if bookie refunds are new to you, 2 good sources of current offers are the betrescue.com web site and bet72.com.

There are plenty of offers that cannot be traded to guaranteed winnings with zero risk, but a steady if modest profit is available if you are willing to look for suitable offers.
If this is new to you, take a look at the betredkings web site.
Betredkings have had a "Lose Only" offer every week for the past 2 months or more.
"Bet in one football match and if you hit a loser, get a free bet in a 2nd game" . . . . mostly Premiership games at the weekend.
Even though the refund comes in the form of a free bet, these offers can be traded to guaranteed, zero risk profit.

Also, this morning by e-mail, I received a "Lose Only" refund offer from Bwin for horse racing - bet 20 - - - - if I hit a loser, get a 20 free bet.
A problem with that offer is that the bet end of things is at Tote Odds, so I'll give that one a miss.
We could of course simply bet a "Lose Only" offer in the hope of hitting a winner, and if we hit a loser we lose nothing, but a better way is to trade the offer to guaranteed profit win or lose.
The strategy is to bet with the bookie and lay the same runner in Betfair.
Get the size of the lay correct and we have profit whatever happens:-

  • It doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser,
  • It doesn't matter if our bet odds are smaller than our lay odds.

Tomorrow, if I hit a winner with Betredkings, my lay liabilities will be less than my bet winnings = profit.
If I hit a loser, I will have a losing bet with the bookie, but my successful lay, plus the refund = profit.
If I hit a loser, I'll then trade the free bet as normal, and still be in front on the whole trade even though I'll make a small loss whilst trading the free bet..
After the initial "Lose Only" bit of the trade, I finish up with money with the bookie.
I'll either have bet winnings with the bookie or my stake refunded (this time as a free bet, but sometimes cash) with the bookie.

My intention is to add more refund spreadsheets to that web page.
I have quite a few to choose from, but there is no point in putting strategies with spreadsheets on there that bookies no longer use.
Another problem is that quite a few popular offers cannot be traded to guaranteed winnings with zero risk (in my opinion).
Examples of the impossible ones are :- Red Card refunds in football matches, 0--0 refunds, a horse to finish 2nd, dogs to be beaten a neck or less, and various other offers.
As tradable offers come along again, I'll add more sheets and strategies.
The trading strategies for most are just a simple bet with the bookie and a lay in Betfair, but some strategies also need an extra bet or lay in order to make them zero risk trades.
I already have videos for several of these bookie refund sheets, so most will come with a video description of the strategy and how the spreadsheet works.
For a free spreadsheet to keep track of your monthly profits, follow this link.
If you get into trading bookie refunds, your betting bank will go up and NEVER down.
Profits may be modest, but an average of just 3 per day if you can manage it adds up to 100 per month near enough, which is over 1,000 per year.
In the past, I've managed that very easily - - - just from my bookie refund trades, but things are a little more difficult for me now as I've had several bookie accounts limited or closed.
A simple principle applies to these Bookie Refund trades - - stake the zero risk offers correctly and you simply cannot lose.
Good luck with your refund trades if you have a go at them,
Howard.

Oct 24th 2012.  Trade a bookie's accumulator bonus offer.
If you go down to my post of Sept 13th, you will see that I put a spreadsheet together to lay an accumulator to a profit target.
I decided that doing that could be a bit dangerous as it amounted to simply chasing our losses until we hit a loser.
At that point, we have a successful lay and achieve our desired profit from our lays.

I have now utilized that spreadsheet to lay the Betfair end of an accumulator that we may bet with a bookie.
As you know, some bookies offer to add an extra percentage to our winnings if we hit a winning accumulator.
We can use that extra bonus payment to help us trade an accumulator to profit.
The 2 strategies for this are :-

  • Bet an accumulator with the bookie, and lay the same selections in Betfair or Betdaq.
  • Our selections need to be timed so that we know the result of one event before laying the next.
    Time between events will be a problem as the odds could easily move against us between placing our bet accumulator, and laying the later runners, or football teams etc.
  • Method 1.  Lay to recover our bet stake if we hit a loser.
    Using this method we would be trying to hit all winners and profit from the added bonus.
    We would be using the lays as insurance against hitting a loser with our accumulator trade.
  • Method 2.  Lay to make a profit when we hit a loser.
    Using this method, we would be looking to hit a loser as soon as possible.
    We would be using the bookie bet as insurance if we were very unlucky and hit all winners with our accumulator trade.
  • Both methods would work best if we were able to trade with bet odds bigger than lay odds of course.
    We all know from experience that bookie bet odds are usually some way below Betfair lay odds, so doing that is never easy.

The video below describes both strategies and demonstrates the spreadsheet.
Note that if required, the sheet can be used just for laying an accumulator to a profit target, without a bet.
Each lay recovers lost lay liabilities so far, adds the profit target, and adds commission to the lay so that we achieve our profit target once we hit a loser.
Also, if the accumulator bonus is available if we bet with an exchange, Betfair or Betdaq, the Bet sheet has the facility for commission deductions on the bet side of the trade as well as on the lay side..
In the video, commission is set to zero in the betting sheet to suit a bonus offer from a bookie.
In the video below, for a bigger view, click the 4 little corners icon towards the bottom right of the video screen.

 

I hope to have this spreadsheet available on my web sites in the next week or so.
My preferred method for these offers would be to aim to hit a loser rather than try for a winning accumulator.
A profit of just 3 per day adds up to almost 100 per month, so rather than risk hitting winners with bet odds smaller than lay odds whilst trying to get the bonus ( Method 1 ), aiming for just one loser looks the most attractive option to me. . . . . Method 2.
The next question is, "Why bother with the bookie bet if we only need one loser ?"
If you've ever layed an accumulator, one runner at a time and hit 2 or 3 winners, you will see the attraction of an insurance bet to cover the lay liabilities as they grow

The above offer is a "Percentage added to winnings" offer, but I have also been working on the  "One leg lets you down" accumulator offer that is quite popular with bookies at present.
The staking for a "One leg lets you down" offer is not quite so straight forward, but I have a sheet for trading those as well.
That also uses the "Lay an Accumulator to a Profit Target" spreadsheet for the lays.
All that changes is the size of each lay.
The strategy for "One leg lets you down" is a little more interesting than just a series of straight lays shown in the video above.
I may put detail of that on here later.

Good luck with finding some close odds if you decide to have a go at trading a bookie's accumulator bonus offer,
Howard.

Sept 23rd 2012.  Betfair Fixed Odds - - - - - What a rip off ?
A Betfair offer of "Bet 5 in Betfair Fixed Odds, get 5 free" in Fixed Odds, both in Correct Score of 2 football matches yesterday, Sat 22nd, caused me to look at the odds available in Betfair Fixed Odds.
Well, . . . .  the odds on offer were beyond belief. . . . .Extremely poor doesn't even come close to a description of the Fixed Odds available in those 2 Premiership football matches.
Today, I compared the Correct Score odds available for the Man City - Arsenal game in the normal Exchange market, Betfair Fixed Odds, and Ladbrokes.
Betfair Fixed Odds continue beyond the score of 3-3 in a 2nd Correct Score market as per the Exchange odds, but to demonstrate these Fixed Odds, we only need to look at the scores between 0-0 and 3-3.
The table below shows the odds available for this Man City - Arsenal game at about 13:50, - - - - the Kick Off being at 16:00 hrs.
Score Exchange Odds Betfair
Fixed Odds
Ladbrokes
0-0 18 13 15
0-1 21 13 15
0-2 38 23 29
0-3 95 51 81
1-0 11 7.5 9
1-1 9.4 7 8
1-2 18 13 17
1-3 55 34 51
2-0 12.5 8.5 10
2-1 9.6 7.5 8.5
2-2 17 13 15
2-3 46 34 41
3-0 19.5 13 15
3-1 16.5 12 13
3-2 27 19 26
3-3 70 41 67
Book % 83.9 % 119.41 % 100.04 %
  - 16.10 Plus 19.41 Plus 0.04

You can see straight away that the Betfair Fixed Odds are well below Ladbrokes.
If you were a bookie and layed at those odds for an equal profit or loss, at Exchange odds you would lose -16.10.
Betfair Fixed odds would make a profit on those scores of plus 19.41, and Ladbrokes would make plus 0.04.
Throw in the odds for Any Unquoted of scores with 4 or more goals to one of the teams, and Exchange lay odds still falls below a 100% book, Ladbrokes will no doubt show a respectable bookie profit margin, but Betfair Fixed Odds, already showing a profit of 19.41 would no doubt be trading to a diabolical book percentage.

It seems to me that the original idea of Betfair matching a bettor with a layer and taking commission from the winner is falling by the wayside a bit as Betfair puts itself forward with a bookmaking service bolted onto the Exchange.
Does Betfair really expect anyone in their right mind to bet at those ridiculous odds ?
The only reason that I bet at those odds yesterday was to trade their free bet offer.
I don't think that I swear just for the sake of it, but when I saw the Fixed Odds available yesterday, I learned a few new words and phrases, most of them starting with "F".

Betfair television adverts that compare Exchage Odds with such as Bet365 and Ladbrokes would make those bookie odds look extremely generous if they compared their Betfair Fixed Odds with those bookies.
My advice is to stay well clear of Betfair Fixed Odds, unless of course there is a free bet or refund on offer.
If you've already been in there and seen the odds available, hopefully you have probably come to that same conclusion already.
Good luck with your trades,
Howard.

Sept 18th 2012.   Betting and Laying trebles - - - -  without using Betfair Multiples.
Apologies for the previous post below.
The spreadsheet described on Sept 13th is a "Chase Your Losses" spreadsheet.
Perhaps that date of Sept. 13th is a bit ironic concerning that sheet. . . . . Lol.
I won't be making that available - - - - I don't think it is a good idea to encourage anyone to chase losses.
A very dangerous game that is.
As you know, winners and losers always come along in bunches, so laying or betting whilst chasing losses can result in some very big stakes, rather quickly.

I've also been working on a sheet for betting 6 individual runners one at a time as events take place, and showing the staking for full cover of 20 trebles from those 6 selections.
If we hit 3 winners we have a winning treble, 4 winners and we have 4 winning trebles, 5 gives 10 trebles, and all 6 winners equals 20.
The big problem with putting that together was commission deductions after each winner.
For example, if we bet our treble with a bookieand our first runner carries a stake of 2 at odds of 2.0, and our 2nd winner also has odds of 2.0 :-
We simply multiply our 2 by 2.0 = 4 going onto our 2nd winner x odds of 2.0 again = 8, less our original bet stake = 6 winnings.
Bet one runner at a time in Betfair, and we need to deduct commission from both individual bets :-

  • Our first has winnings of 2 less 5% commission = 1.90 + our original 2 stake =  a bet of 3.90 on our 2nd runner.
  • That also wins at odds of 2.0 so we have winnings of 3.90, plus 1.90 winnings from our first winning race = 5.80 profit.
  • A bet on a 3rd runner would be all the winnings so far, plus our original bet stake = 5.80 + 2 = 7.80.

When I was putting this sheet together, it struck me that maybe the complication of commission at each stage is the reason why Betfair don't charge commission on their multiples.
Instead, they offer odds below those shown in the normal Betfair markets.
I may be wrong there of course, but working without commission deductions after each winner makes calculations a hell of a lot simpler.

If you have a selection method that throws up a high percentage of winners even at very short prices, you might consider betting your selections one at a time in the normal Betfair markets and combining them in trebles for a bigger payout.
Maybe you follow the top football teams playing against teams much lower in the league, place only betting in horse races, top tennis players early in tennis tournaments, . . . . . that kind of thing.
String a few short priced winners together and winnings can add up quite quickly.

The big question is, what price do our runners need to be to win back the 20 x 1 bet stakes of our 20 treble bet at 5% commission ?

  • 3 winners at odds of 2.0 gives a winning treble of 6.41 profit.
  • 4 at 2.0 gives 4 trebles for 9.64 profit (4 x 6.41 minus 16 losing 1 bets = 9.64)
  • 4 at 2.2 pays 19.20, whilst 5 winners at 2.0 pay 54.10 profit.
  • 3 at odds of 3.0 gives a winning treble of 23.39 profit.

Those rough examples may give some idea of the odds required to get into profit if betting 6 selections individually in 20 trebles, using the ordinary Betfair markets.
I would guess that betting individually and paying commission on individual winners will pay quite a bit better than using the shorter odds offered by Betfair Multiples.
This spreadsheet for betting 6 runners in 20 trebles will be available on my web sites shortly.

Lay 7 Trebles spreadsheet.
If you are interested in Laying trebles using the ordinary Betfair markets, a very good sheet for laying 7 trebles with only a 1 in 30 chance of hitting 3 winners with your 12 lays lives near the bottom of this web page  >>>>>   Lay 7 Trebles
The write-up for that spreadsheet includes these comments :-

The spreadsheet shows the stakes required to Lay up to 12 selections in 7 separate trebles.
With 12 selections, there are a possible 220 treble combinations, but this staking plan covers only 7 of them, leaving you with less than a 1 in 30 chance of hitting a winning treble combination with your 12 lays.
The treble combinations are arranged so that each selection appears a maximum of only once in any other treble.
For example, your first selection appears in only 1 treble.
Selections 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 appear in only 2 trebles each, whilst selections 11 and 12 appear in only 1 treble.
If you were a bookie offering this multiple trebles bet, your customer, the punter, could have the first 7 winners on his betting slip, and not have a winning treble.
Also, if his first 4 selections were losers, and then his last 8 selections were winners, he would not have a winning treble.

My trading buddy used this sheet today, Sept 18th 2012, to lay 12 horses each in a different race.
He hit 7 winners with his first 7 lays, followed by 5 losers.
Most of us would expect him to have payout from hitting those 7 consecutive winners with his lays, but he didn't have to pay out on any of the trebles that he layed.
All that it cost him was commission on his successful lays.
Good luck with your multiples bets,
Howard.

Sept 13th 2012.   Lay an accumulator to a profit target.
Note that since uploading this post, I decided that this "Chase Your Losses" spreadsheet is not a good idea.
However, I decided to leave this post in as it describes the problems of laying a multiple of individual runners using ordinary Betfair markets.

If you have visited this web page recently, you might have thought that I'd died or something.
Only my trading activity had died for the last 2 or 3 months, but I'm back in business now, and chucking spreadsheets together again.
I'll just bore you for a moment with a bit of detail of what I got bogged down with :-

It was nothing to do with trading, but I spoke in front of 83 Cumbria County Council members last week, voicing my concerns about a radioactive waste dump being located underground here in Cumbria.
Well over 1.25 million cubic metres of the stuff - enough to re-build Hadrian's Wall, 1 metre wide, 10 metres high and all 73 miles long, and still have 24 kilometres worth of 1 metre cubes, or 24,000 x 1 metre cubes of waste left over.
10 metres is higher than my 2 storey house - - -  - I hope you get the picture.
That is a GIGANTIC amount of any kind of waste, let alone radioactive stuff.
I expect that this project will eventually go ahead, but I don't fancy living anywhere near it, especially if it is underneath my house.
It would be nice and warm though with all that under-floor heating - - - a nice warm glow . . . .Lol.

A spreadsheet that I have in the pipeline at the moment is a sheet for setting a profit target, and then laying a series of runners in any sport, any market, until we hit a loser.
Commission is built into this sheet.
Once we hit a loser, we have our profit, after paying commission.

Problems with laying runners one at a time to put an accumulator together in Betfair, are :-

  • Whilst we are hitting winners with our lays, we need to recover lost lay liabilities with our next lay.
  • We need to add our profit to that loss each time for our lay on our next runner.
  • We need to allow a bit extra to cover commission that will be paid if our next runner is the one that completes our trade.
  • Once we hit a loser with one of our lays, we pay commission on the lay winnings and have our desired profit.

Nothing particularly complicated there, but if we hit a few winners with our lays and haven't allowed for big lay liabilities, our profit could be a lot less than we expected, or even wiped out completely.
For example, suppose that we Lay a 2 accumulator, with all our runners priced at Evens (Betfair odds of 2.0).
We aim to make a profit of 2 once we hit a loser.
If we simply lay to recover our losses if we hit winners, after hitting 2 winners with our lays, we need to recover 6 with our 3rd lay, and also lay 2 in the hope of hitting our 2 profit target.
Hit a winner with our first lay and we need to recover our 2 liabilities, plus lay another 2 for a profit = Lay 4 on our 2nd runner.
Hit a 2nd winner and we have 4 worth of liabilities, plus 2 from the first race to recover, plus another 2 so that we have profit = Lay 8.
Now if we hit a loser with our 3rd lay, we have a successful lay for a profit of 8, but at 5% commission, we pay 0.40 for a profit of only 1.60.
We are some way short of our 2 profit target.
If we hit winners at bigger prices (our unsuccessful lays are priced at bigger odds), the liabilities will be bigger which will require bigger lay stakes.
Once we hit a loser if we are laying bigger prices and have a successful lay, commission deductions could wipe out our profit completely, or even leave us with a loss.
The sheet that I have built gets around that problem.
Input our profit target and lay our runners one at a time using the lay stakes shown in the spreadsheet.
Stake as shown in the spreadsheet and once we hit a loser and have a successful lay, we hit our profit target after commission deductions.

So, if you have a selection process that finds losers or just one loser, ( and who doesn't ? Lol ), we can in theory, win as much as we like.
All that we need to do is have enough cash in our Betfair account to keep on laying, and have the courage to carry on if we hit a few winners and need to carry on laying.
The vital thing will be to have a good selection process for finding a high percentage of losers, preferably at short prices, but short prices are not essential.
If we have such a selection process, we can get laying.
Note that since uploading this post, I decided that this "Chase Your Losses" spreadsheet is not a good idea.
However, I decided to leave this post in as it describes the problems of laying a multiple of individual runners using ordinary Betfair markets
.
As always, good luck with your trading,
Howard.

July 14th 2012.  The John Smith's Cup at York - - - "The Morning Line" do it yet again.
Take a look at my write-up for the draw advantage in York's 1m 2F races here.
If you are not familiar with how to read a draw advantage chart, a video lives here.

Every year, the television presenters on Channel 4's Morning Line programme give draw advantage advice for this mile and a quarter race.
Today, we had Mr Dettori explaining how there is a bend shortly after the start, which means that a low draw is essential in these races.
From what I remember, to back up that argument, stats were referred to but no figures were quoted.
Now back to my write-up for this course and distance - see the top link above.
That write up clearly describes a very weak draw advantage pattern that isn't worth wasting your money on.

Unfortunately, every year, these television presenters don't have time to do their homework properly.
Every year, viewers are encouraged to select low drawn horses in the John Smith's Cup at York.
Last year, the winner was drawn 17 of 22,   19 ran on Good going.
"Held up towards rear, ridden and good headway on outer over 2f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, kept on strongly"
Today, the winner was drawn 19 of 22,        18 ran on going that was good/good to soft in places.
"Held up towards rear, smooth headway 3f out, stayed on to lead over 1f out, ridden clear inside final furlong"
The 2nd horse today was drawn in stall 15.
In my opinion, the reason for these apparently "wrong" results is the distance of the race , 1m 2F.
Despite the bend and the problems that that might cause, there is plenty of time in the race for jockeys to use waiting tactics to save their horse for a late finish, and any other tactic that you might imagine.

Every year, that seems to be beyond the imagination of our television "Experts".
Why can't they just look at some results for goodness sake before giving thousands of viewers some crap advice ?
It happens every year for this mile and a quarter race.
They even discuss the draw for the Northumberland Plate and The Chester Cup, despite both races being over 2 miles or beyond.
If the draw is of any significance in 2 mile races, why is it never mentioned in hurdle races or 2 mile chases where we often see a horse or 2 take an easy lead ?
No-one seems to bother about that in those races.

Apologies for getting this off my chest on here, but these people need to wake up and either do their homework properly, or waffle on about something that isn't likely to cost viewers some money.
I urge you very strongly not to take any notice of what television presenters say about draw advantages.
They have a nasty habit of quoting stats for the winning stall numbers of the last 10 runnings of televised races.
Just 10 results of anything is an extremely small sample for an analysis whether it be for horse races or anything else

In quoting just 10 results, they are taking a shortcut . . . . . not a very good idea, especially where horses and our money are involved.
The bigger the sample size, the better, so why not quote ALL results of the past 10 years, rather than 10 results for just one race ?
Results of ALL races of the last 10 years would give a far better picture of what has been happening.
If you've got this far, thank you for reading, and good luck with your trading,
Howard.

July 3rd 2012.  Bookie "IF" refunds - - What to look for and how to trade them.
Bookie "IF" refund offers may not appear to pay particularly well, but trade enough of them and a very good, on-going profit can be made in the long term.
A spreadsheet is available just below the video demo below.
You will have seen plenty of "IF" offers on bookie web sites.
Examples of an "IF" refund are . . . . . . A refund "IF" a game ends 0-0, IF there is a red card, IF a player scores 1st, IF a player scores anytime . . . . that kind of thing.

Basic strategy.
To trade these offers to profit, we need to place one bet and 2 lays :-

  • Bet with the bookie in his nominated market, for example Correct Score.
  • Lay the same thing in Betfair - - - usually for a loss on that part of the trade.
  • Then lay the "IF" part of the trade in Betfair.
    This 2nd lay
    recovers the loss from our initial bet with the bookie and lay in Betfair, and shows a profit on top.
    If this lay of the "IF" part of the offer hits a winner, we have lay liabilities, but we also get a refund from the bookie of our Bet stake - - but only IF we have hit a loser with our bookie bet.
  • Profit comes from our 2nd lay stake being bigger than our bet and lay loss, OR our refund being bigger than 2 losses combined.

When we place that bet and 2 lays, there are 4 possible outcomes :-

  • Our bet and lay hits a winner + our 2nd lay hits a loser
  • Our bet and lay hits a winner + our 2nd lay hits a winner - Red if both win.
  • Our bet and lay hits a loser   + our 2nd lay hits a loser
  • Our bet and lay hits a loser   + our 2nd lay hits a winner = Refund

Usually we only get a refund if we hit a loser with our bookie bet and the "IF" part of the offer is a winner.
For example,. Bet in Correct Score and IF Joe Bloggs scores anytime, we will refund all losing Correct Score bets.

To trade that offer, we would bet and lay a Correct Score with bookie and Betfair and then Lay Joe Bloggs in the "To Score" market in Betfair, - - - - -  - the Anytime Scorer market.
We only get the refund if Joe Bloggs scores at some point in the game, AND we don't hit the winning score with our bookie bet.

It is best to use a spreadsheet for the staking.
If we simply bet and lay any Correct Score and unluckily hit a winning score plus Joe Bloggs scores, we will have a big red trade on one of those outcomes. . . . The 2nd one down shown above. . . . winner and winner -
Red if both win.
We already know that we will make a loss from betting and laying our Correct Score since the bookie bet odds will be lower than the Betfair lay odds.
Also, as we are laying Joe Bloggs in the "To Score" market in Betfair, if he scores, we have lay liabilities, so we need to eliminate the possibility of our hitting a winning score, AND Joe Bloggs scoring a goal.
The way to do that is to bet and lay a score than cannot happen if Joe Bloggs scores.

Get your logic right to reduce the trade to 3 possible outcomes.
If City are playing at home to United and Joe Bloggs is playing for United, we need to bet and lay a winning score for City - - the team that Joe Bloggs does not play for.
We might bet and lay a 1-0 win for City.
Now if we also lay Joe Bloggs to score anytime, those 2 outcomes cannot both happen in the same game, so we are left with only 3 possible outcomes :-

  • Our 1-0 to City bet and lay hits a winner + Joe Bloggs does not score
  • Our 1-0 to City bet and lay hits a winner + Joe Bloggs scores - - - - - cannot both happen - - this is impossible.
  • Our 1-0 to City bet and lay hits a loser   + Joe Bloggs does not score
  • Our 1-0 to City bet and lay hits a loser   + Joe Bloggs scores = Refund

Now, if Joe Bloggs scores, we get the refund since we have a losing Correct Score bet on 1-0 with the bookie.
The refund covers both our 1-0 bet and
lay liabilities and our lay liabilities for Joe Bloggs, and leaves us with some profit on top.
If the game ends 1-0 to City, we have a successful lay of Joe Bloggs in the "To Score" market, that will recover our 1-0 bet and lay loss and again, leave us with some profit on top.
If the game ends with some other score and Joe Bloggs doesn't score,
again we have a successful lay of Joe Bloggs in the "To Score" market, that will recover our 1-0 bet and lay loss and leave us with some profit on top.
Once we have reduced the trade to only 3 possible outcomes, we can trade to guaranteed winnings providing that we can bet and lay at suitable odds.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
What to look for.
When we look at a bookie IF refund offer, we need 2 things to fall into place, and then we need to also check the logic of our trade. :-

  1. A suitable market for eliminating one of the 4 possible outcomes.
  2. Short odds for our Lay of the "IF" part of the trade.
  3. Then, check the logic of the possible outcomes.

The explanation of the basic staking shown above, shows that we always have a BIG red against one of the 4 possible outcomes of these trades - - - - We will have a loss from our initial bet and lay, plus lay liabilities from our 2nd lay if we hit a winner with the "IF" part of the bookie offer.
To trade these IF offers with zero risk and guaranteed winnings, we need to eliminate the 2nd outcome where both parts of the trade could hit a winner, OR reduce the 4 possible outcomes down to 3.
If we cannot do that elimination, we will not be trading with zero risk.

The best way to do that elimination is by trading a Correct Score or some other alternative that cannot happen if the bookie's "IF" part of the offer wins, as described above.
Occasionally, there is another market that can be used to make that elimination, such as Match Odds.

To cover the loss from our initial bet and lay, we also need short odds for our 2nd lay - - the IF part of the trade.
If those lay odds are not small enough, our lay stake will not be big enough to cover the loss from our initial bet and lay with bookie and Betfair.

From that, you may now be able to see that IF offers such as 0-0 refunds and Red card refunds cannot be traded in this way, using a bet with the bookie and 2 lays in Betfair.
Those offers don't allow us to eliminate one of the 4 possible outcomes.

First Goal Scorer with IF Scores anytime refunds.
An "IF" offer that requires a First Goal Scorer bet with the bookie may appear to give no opportunity to eliminate one outcome, but the video below demonstrates how If offers that involve First Goal Scorer plus "Scores Anytime" (the "To Score" market in Betfiar), only involve 3 possible outcomes, so there is no need to try to eliminate anything if you trade one of those.

Problem trades.
In a Red Card refund offer (refund IF a player is sent off), we have no way of  eliminating one outcome.
A 0-0 offer such as the Bet365 offer that allows us to bet and lay in Half Time/Full Time allows us to eliminate one outcome, but the 0-0 odds will almost always be too big to allow us to trade the remaining 3 outcomes to profit.
For example, in Half Time/Full Time, we might trade Italy/Italy and lay 0-0 in Correct Score.
That would eliminate Italy/Italy = Yes and 0-0 = Yes, (those cannot both happen) but the big 0-0 odds would make our lay of 0-0 too small to cover losses on other parts of the trade, even including the refund on Italy/Italy = No, 0-0 = Yes . . . . .a "Bore Draw" result.

Bias our Bookie Bet.
On rare occasions such as that shown in the video below, we can bias our bookie bet stake, usually to favour a win with the bookie, and trade to guaranteed winnings.
Such a trade would normally involve an anytime Goal Scorer such as Mr. Messi at very short odds, but profitable zero risk trades that include all 4 possible outcomes are quite rare in my experience.
We are far more likely to eliminate one outcome and then bias our 2nd lay of the IF part of the trade in order to balance profits across the 3 remaining outcomes.
That is the normal way of trading these IF offers.

If you have not traded any of these offers in this way before, this may all look a bit complicated.
Don't let that put you off doing these trades.
Use a spreadsheet to show the staking and all that we need to do is input the bookie bet odds and 2 lay odds from Betfair.
Then adjust the staking to balance the whole trade.
Check the logic of your bets and lays, and if all looks ok, go ahead and place the bookie bet and the 2 Betfair lays.
Stake correctly, and we cannot lose, providing that we get our logic right for eliminating one of the 3 possible outcomes, and find some suitable odds to trade.

To make things a little clearer, the video below describes my "IF" spreadsheet.
In the video, I change the values in the Adjust cells.
A positive or negative Adjustment simply changes the size of the lay stake, which in turn changes the profit or loss throughout the spreadsheet.

If you decide to get involved with IF refunds, profits are usually modest, but over the long term, the profits add up and pay very well, all with zero risk of course.
Unfortunately, offers that can be traded to guaranteed winnings with zero risk are few and far between these days.
This video shows how it can be done.

 

As always, good luck with your trading,
Howard.

July 2nd 2012.  A bit of tidying up . . . . . . Bookie "IF" refunds.
I've archived recent posts.
To see previous posts, follow the tab at the top, "The Spoil Heap".

I hope you had a profitable Euro 2012.
The next topic will probably be bookie "IF" refunds, as there were plenty of those on offer during the Euro 2012 tournament.
In anticipation of a post on that topic, I've cleared a bit of space on this web page.

Examples of an "IF" refund are . . . . . . A refund "IF" a game ends 0-0, IF there is a red card, IF a player scores 1st, IF a player scores anytime . . . . that kind of thing.
Some "IF" refund offers can be traded to guaranteed winnings with zero risk, but many are a waste of time.
I'll describe how to easily sort the wheat from the chaff, so that you don't waste time looking at offers that cannot be traded to guaranteed winnings with zero risk to your cash.
How to easily recognise those worth trading, and how to trade them to profit.
Of all bookie refunds, "IF" refunds are probably the most complicated to trade.
A video of a live trade might be a good idea to show what is involved.
I'll post again soon when I have a bit of time, and maybe a decent "IF" refund offer to trade,
Howard.

June 8th 2012.  Euro 2012 Free money.
I hope you have taken advantage of the very generous free bets that are available for existing bookie customers for the Euro 2012 football tournament.
Just 3 of them add up to 200 in free bets :-
  • Bet-at-home.  Deposit 400 Euros, get 200 free, or deposit 300 get 150 free, depending on the currency used in your account.
  • BetRedKings.  Bet 20 get 10 free in the Group D games - - the England groiup.
    That adds up to bet 60 get 30 free.
  • Bodog.  Bet 20 in 2 of England's 3 qualifying games, get 20 free in the Quarter Finals.
    That's bet 40 get 20 free.

The Bet-at-home offer requires turnover of 4 times the deposit plus the free bonus money.
The way to deal with that is to try to "Bust out" by hitting some losers.
Hit winners and we need to meet the turnover requirements, but hit some losers and a large chunk of free cash is transferred to our Betfair account.
Hitting losers keeps the bookie happy and a nice big profit keeps us happy as well.

I never let turnover requirements put me off trading a free bet offer.
As insurance against hitting winners and having to meet the turnover requirements, bias the staking to favour the bet side of the trade.
If we are unlucky and hit a winner or winners, we can maintain the bookie end of things.
That will cost us a bit of profit, but at least we end up smelling of roses with a profit at the end, no-matter what happens.

If you are not familiar with trading free bets and refunds, videos showing how to get started trading bookie sign-up offers lives here.
Follow the link down that web page "
Win Every Time With The One Trading Strategy That Never, Ever Loses".
After trading a few sign-ups, you'll soon see that the 3 offers described above are exactly the same as trading deposits and free bets.
All nice and simple.

A profit from trading bookie refunds might even allow you the luxury of having a go at other trades without having to worry too much about hitting an occasional red trade.
Have a profitable Euro 2012,
Howard.

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