Horse racing draw advantage bias
Goodwood
1m
Stalls
usually positioned High.
Course
and distance menu
Race Of the
Week
Goodwood
5F Goodwood
6F Goodwood 7F
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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10 |
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20 |
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No
of
R
U
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R
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8 |
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11 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
111 |
11 |
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9 |
11 |
1 |
111 |
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1111 |
11 |
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11 |
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3yr olds
and older
10 season's results 1997 - 2006 |
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10 |
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11 |
1 |
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111 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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11 |
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1 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
111 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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12 |
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1 |
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11 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
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1 |
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11 |
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13 |
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1 |
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1 |
111 |
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1 |
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14 |
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11 |
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11 |
1 |
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15 |
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11 |
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1 |
1 |
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11 |
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16 |
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1 |
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1 |
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17 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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11 |
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18 |
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1 |
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1 |
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19 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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11 |
1 |
1 |
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20 |
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1 |
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1111 |
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1 |
111 |
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1 |
1 |
111 |
111 |
1 |
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21 |
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1 |
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22 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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111 |
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11 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
111 |
1111 |
111 |
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3 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
3 |
12 |
<--Good or better --> |
9 |
9 |
13 |
16 |
9 |
9 |
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40 |
69 |
Copyright © 2005
[H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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You will probably see draw advantage
advice such as "High best 7F and 1m" or words to that effect, but this
is a very weak pattern.
There is a right hand bend shortly after the start in these and the 7F races
which probably favours horses drawn High to some extent, but any advantage is
only marginal.
Overall, there are spreads of results throughout
this chart.
On good or better going, the Top
half of the draw won 69 of 111 races 62%.
The Top 6 stalls won 65 of 111 races 58 %, not a high percentage for 6 stalls.
Stalls 1 - 6 won 41 of 111 races 37%.
On good or better going (results
shown in black) :-
In races of 8 - 15 runners, the Top 6 stalls won 41 of 65 races 68 %.
In 2006 under those conditions, the Top 6 stalls won only 1 of 5 races.
In races of 16 - 19 runners the Top 6 stalls won only 3 of 9 races..
In races of 20 or more runners, the Top half of the draw won 27 of 37 races 73
%. (The Top 10 or 11 stalls).
There is a slight advantage here, but those are not convincing stats.
Races over 1 mile rarely produce consistent results.
On good or better going during 2006,
only 4 of 10 races were won from the Top 6 stalls. 3 of those wins had 20
runners.
Betting on the draw in these races is asking for trouble in the long term.
From a draw advantage viewpoint, sooner or later, these results will let you
down.
On good/good to soft in places or
softer going (results shown in red), 18 of
24 races were won from the Top half of the draw.
There are far better
patterns of results to be found over other course and distances.
At best, all that can be said of this pattern is that the Top half has been
favoured over the Bottom half of the draw.
There is no recommendation.
2006 results :-
2-8, 1-9, 3-9, 3-11,
12-12, 3-15, 8-16, 13-17,
8-20, 16-20, 18-20, 19-20
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