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Horse racing draw advantage bias
Haydock
1m 30yds
Stalls usually positioned
Low
Race
of The Week Link
to course and distance menu
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
| No
of
R
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N
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8 |
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1 |
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11 |
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11 |
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| 9 |
1 |
11 |
1111 |
1 |
111 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
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| 10 |
111 |
1111 |
111 |
1111 |
11 |
11 |
1 |
111 |
111 |
1 |
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| 11 |
111 |
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11 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
111 |
1 |
1 |
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| 12 |
111 |
1111 |
1 |
111 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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11 |
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| 13 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
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1 |
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11 |
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| 14 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 15 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
11 |
11 |
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| 16 |
11 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 17 |
11 |
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1 |
1 |
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11 |
1 |
11 |
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11 |
1 |
11 |
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1 |
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| 18 |
1 |
1 |
111 |
111 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
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111 |
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1 |
11 |
111 |
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| 19 |
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1 |
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| 21 |
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| 23 |
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12 |
11 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
<--Good or better --> |
4 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
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51
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31
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Copyright © 2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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There is a 180 degree bend shortly after the start in these races, which in
theory, should favour horses drawn Low, close to the running rail.
Although there are some promising percentages here, the pattern shows little in
the way of clustering of results in just a few stalls.
Realistically, there are spreads of wins throughout.
Distance is having a negative affect in these races.
On good or better going, the
Bottom half, Top half split favours the Bottom half by 51 wins against 31.
4 other winners were drawn dead centre.
On good or better going, stalls 1 to 6 won 51 of 86 races 59%.
On good or better going, in races of 8 to 14 runners, stalls 1 - 6 won 39 of 54 races
72%.
That is a good percentage for 6 stalls in races over such a long distance, but
during 2006, stalls 1 to 6 won only 6 of 11 races under those conditions.
In races of 8 to 20 runners stalls 1 to 6 won 7 of 15 races - not much advantage
there.
There is no recommendation.
On good/good to soft in
places or softer going, results are
spread throughout this chart.
2006 results :- 3-9,
8-9, 2-10, 2-10, 2-10,
3-10, 4-10, 8-10,
9-10, 9-10, 7-11, 8-11, 10-11,
1-12, 2-12, 10-13, 12-15, 12-16, 1-17, 11-17,
14-17
There is a very good 7F pattern at Haydock favouring stalls 1 to 6, but the number of 7F races
has been drastically reduced since 2003.
As the number of Haydock 7F races has declined, the number of 1m races has
increased.
For several seasons to 2005, these 1m races produced a very reasonable pattern favouring
stalls 1 to 6, but results were pretty even in 2006.
Please be aware that as a general rule, as distance increases, draw advantages
usually become less effective.
Obvious stuff really, and that is exactly what happens here, but these 1m races
may still be worth watching.
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