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Horse racing draw advantage bias results
Haydock 7F
30yds
Stalls usually positioned Low
Link
to course and distance menu
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
| No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
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1 |
11 |
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111 |
1 |
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| 9 |
1 |
11 |
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1 |
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1 |
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11 |
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| 10 |
11 |
1111 |
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11 |
11 |
11 |
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11 |
1 |
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| 11 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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111 |
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1 |
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| 12 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 13 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 14 |
1 |
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1 |
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11 |
1 |
1 |
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11 |
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| 15 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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| 16 |
1 |
111 |
11 |
1 |
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11 |
1 |
11 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 17 |
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| 21 |
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| 23 |
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3 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
<--Good or better --> |
5 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
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29 |
9 |
Copyright © 2005
[H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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The best way to eliminate a draw advantage is to stop racing over a course and
distance where a minority of stalls has been favoured.
I believe Haydock have taken this drastic measure to eliminate an embarrassment
of wins from Low stalls in 7F races.
A very strong pattern, but
unfortunately the number of races over this course and distance was greatly
reduced during 2004 to just 3 races.
Could it have anything to do with the
strength of this pattern ?
There were only 2 races with 8 or more runners in 2005 and 2006.
Most newspaper advice seems to concentrate on sprint races at Haydock, and usually there is
no mention of an advantage on the round course, so we may assume that this
pattern of results is little known at least to the press, if not to the Haydock
management.
There is a left hand bend of 180 degrees shortly after the start in these races
which probably favours horses drawn Low nearest to the rail.
On good or better going, the
Bottom half Top half split favours the Bottom half of the draw by 29 wins to 9
(a ratio of 3 to1).
On good or better going,
stalls 1 to 6 also won 29 of 38 races 76 %.
On good or better going
in the last 3 years, stalls 1 to 6 won 4 of 4 races.
On good/good to soft in places or
softer going, there are spreads of results throughout this chart.
2006 results :- 2-10, 10-12
2005 results :- 6-8,
2-10
2004 results :- 2-9,
4-10, 5-12
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