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You may see free
newspaper draw advantage information for Beverley that recommends a high
draw advantage in races up to 1m
:- "High numbers best up to 1m", "Those drawn high are
favoured to some extent over most trips"....... etc.
In 7F races on the round course, there is a bend shortly after the start.
Perhaps it is this factor which leads some draw advantage analysts to
assume that there should be an advantage favouring horses drawn next to
the rail in the High numbered stalls in races of 7F and 1m.
This has been the accepted advice for years in these races, but as you can
see from the chart below, the bias favouring the Top half of the draw
during the last 10 years has only been marginal.
Course and distance menu
Beverley 1m
BEVERLEY
7F 100yds Stalls
positioned HIGH (Low are shown L).
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
| No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
|
11 |
1111 |
1 |
|
11 |
111 |
1 |
|
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| 9 |
|
11 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
111 |
111 |
|
11 |
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|
3y old & older
9 seasons results
1997 - 2005
|
|
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| 10 |
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|
|
1 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
|
11 |
1 |
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| 11 |
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|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
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|
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|
|
| 12 |
1 |
1 |
111 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
11 |
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
|
11 |
|
|
11 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
11 |
111 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 14 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
111 |
|
|
11 |
1111 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
111 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 15 |
|
111 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
1111 |
11 |
11 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 16 |
1 |
111 |
1111 |
11L1 |
111 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
11 |
111 |
111 |
11 |
1111 |
1 |
11111111 |
1111 |
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
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|
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|
1 |
1 |
|
11 |
11 |
|
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| 18 |
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| 19 |
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| 20 |
|
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|
2 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
<--Good or better --> |
10 |
11 |
7 |
10 |
15 |
12 |
|
|
39 |
64 |
Copyright © 2005
[H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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This is a very weak pattern.
The major factors that influence the draw in these races are increased
field sizes, the going, and the distance of 7F.
All 3 have a negative effect.
On good or better going, the Top half - Bottom half split, shown at the
bottom of the chart, favours the Top half of the draw by 39 wins against
64.
On good or better going, the Top 6 stalls won 65 of 105 races 62%.
Those figures were boosted by the 2006 results :- 9 of 12 wins from the
Top 6 stalls.
Throughout this chart, results are spread across both High and Low
numbered stalls.
This can be seen particularly clearly in races of 16 runners, where 14
started from the bottom half of the draw, and 17 started from the Top
half.
In races of 12 and 13 runners, stalls 1 to 6 won 8 races and the Top 6
stalls won 5 races.
In races of 8 to 11 runners, the Top 6 stalls won 25 of 30 races 83%,
which looks quite impressive, but
that percentage was boosted by 5 of 5 wins from the Top 4 stalls in 2006.
With so few runners over such a long
distance, this part of the pattern must be suspect. Coincidence
could easily be at play here.
On good to soft or softer going, results
shown in red, the Top 6 stalls won 21 of 43 races 49%, a very low
percentage for 6 stalls.
In races of 12 or more runners, the Bottom half - Top half split is 16
wins to 19 in favour of the Top half.
During 2005 the Top 6 stalls
won 10 of 14 races on all types of going, and 10 of 15 in 2006, which
both bettered the
overall trends.
In my opinion, the best that
can be said of this course and distance is that the Top half of the draw
has been favoured, particularly during the last 2 seasons.
Over such a long distance, and with no obvious tight clustering of
results, there are better opportunities elsewhere.
There is no recommendation
for this course and distance.
2005 results :-
Winner drawn 3 of 8, 4-8,
6-8, 7-10, 6-11, 2-14, 3-14, 4-14,
8-14, 10-14, 14-14, 14-14, 11-15, 12-16
Results on good to soft or softer shown in red. These results
are on the chart.
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