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Horse racing draw advantage bias
CHESTER
7F
Stalls
positioned LOW
Course and distance menu
Race
Of The Week
Chester 5F
Chester 6F
Chester
7F 122yds
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
| No
of
R
U
N
E
R
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8 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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| 9 |
11 |
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1 |
11 |
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1 |
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3yr
olds and older
10 seasons results
1997 - 2006 |
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| 10 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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| 11 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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| 12 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 13 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 14 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 15 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 16 |
11 |
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1 |
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F |
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| 17 |
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4 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
<--Good or better --> |
2 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
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15 |
11 |
Copyright © 2005
[H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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F =
flag start on good/good-soft going.
A very weak pattern.
On good or better going, the Top half - Bottom half split, shown at the bottom
of the chart favours the Bottom half by 15 wins to 11.
On good or better going, stalls 1 - 6 won 19 of 27 races 70%.
The Top 6 stalls
won 13 of 27 races 48% - a difference of only 6 races.
During the last 2 seasons, 2005 and 2006, stalls 1 to 4 won 6 of 8 races.
You may choose to follow Low numbered stalls in these races, but results have
certainly not shown reliability in the long term.
In races of 11 runners, there is an obvious spread of results across both high
and low numbered stalls.
This pattern is repeated throughout this chart, but with fewer results.
For example, in races of 12 to 15 runners runners, stalls 1 - 4 won 5 races and
the Top 4 stalls also won 5 races.
3 of those wins from stalls 1 - 4 occurred in 2005 -
not a good sign for anyone who anticipates a Low draw advantage in these races
in the long term.
On good/good to soft
in places or
softer going, there were 7 wins from stalls 1 - 6 and 9 wins from the Top 6 stalls.
3 of those results fell within both the Top 6 and Bottom 6 stalls.
The overall pattern
is very weak, and shows no long term bias favouring any section of the stalls over the
last 10 seasons.
My advice is to ignore the shape of the course and ignore the huge amount of
speculation in the media concerning Low stalls in races at Chester.
In races beyond 5F, draw bias here is not as strong as most people expect.
There is no recommendation.
2006 results :- 4-11, 3-12, 11-12,
4-16,
2005 results :- 5-10,
8-11, 2-12, 4-12, 2-15
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