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Horse racing draw advantage bias
CHESTER 6F
Stalls usually positioned LOW
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to Chester 5F Chester
7F Chester
7F 122yds
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
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4 |
5 |
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8 |
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10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
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of
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8 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
11 |
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| 9 |
11 |
1 |
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1 |
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3yr
olds and older
10 seasons results
1997 - 2006 |
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| 10 |
11 |
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| 11 |
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1 |
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1 |
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11 |
1 |
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| 12 |
11 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 13 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 14 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 15 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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| 16 |
11 |
11 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 17 |
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| 19 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
<--Good or better --> |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
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14 |
10 |
Copyright © 2005 [H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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On good or better
going, a very weak pattern.
Overall, on all
types of going, there is a cluster
of 19 wins in 38 races from the bottom 3 stalls 50%, and although these are just the
kind of results everyone expects from Chester's tight, turning course, this
pattern may only be worth watching.
On good or better going (results shown in black), the Bottom half, Top half
split shown at the bottom of the chart favours the Bottom half by 14 wins to 10.
On good or better going stalls 1 to 6 won 15 of 25 races 60 %.
That is a moderate percentage for 6 stalls.
The Top 6 stalls won 11 races.
During 2005 and 2006 on good or better going the Top 4 stalls won 3 of 6 races.
The other three winners started from stalls 1 to 5.
That is not what most people would expect of this course and distance.
There are not many
results here, but a closer look shows
that on good or better going, generally, wins are spread across most stalls throughout this chart.
In races of 8 - 11 runners, on good or better going, all 5 winners of the
last 2 seasons started from the Top 7 stalls.
Only 2 winners, drawn 4 of 8 and 5-11 started from the Bottom 7 stalls.
There are spreads of results in races of 12 runners, and again in races of 16.
(2 wins Bottom half, 2 wins Top half).
On good/good to soft in places or softer going (results shown in
red),
stalls 1 and 2 won
9 of 13 races 69%.
That is an excellent percentage for 2 stalls.
Just 2 horses have been winning well over half of these races during this 10 year period under those conditions.
It is these results which make this course and distance measure up to everyone's
expectations of a Low draw pattern.
This trend was shown in these comments for 2005.
During 2005, 2 of 3 races
were won from stalls 1 and 2.
The 5F and 7F patterns do not show such strong clustering.
It may be best to await more results to confirm this very strong
looking trend.
You may choose to follow that trend, but
13 races is a very small sample, and as a general rule at other courses, results on this type of
going often do not continue with a regular,
reliable pattern.
2006 results :- 4-8, 5-11, 9-11,
3-13
2005 results
:- 1-8,
8-8, 2-9,
8-11, 12-15
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