Horse
racing draw advantage bias
CHESTER 7F 122yds
Stalls
positioned LOW
Course and distance menu
Race
Of The Week
Chester 5F
Chester 6F
Chester
7F
|
WINNING
STALL NUMBER |
|
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
| No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9 |
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3yr
olds and older
10 seasons results
1997 - 2006 |
|
| 10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 11 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 14 |
11 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
11 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 15 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 16 |
|
111 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
|
11 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 18 |
11 |
11 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
111 |
11 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
| 19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
<--Good or
better --> |
1 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
26 |
11 |
Copyright ©
2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
|
On good or better going, the Top half - Bottom half split, shown at the bottom of
the chart, shows a strong bias towards the bottom half of the draw, 26 wins to
11.
At first glance, twice as many wins from the Bottom half looks very
impressive, but if we take a closer look, the best that can be said of
this chart, is that the Bottom half has been favoured more than the Top
half.
Only 4 races on good or better going had less than 12 runners.
All were won from the Top 6 stalls.
2 of those winners drawn 4 of 8 and 4-9 also started from the Bottom 6.
On good or better going, in races of 8 to
14 runners, stalls 1 - 6 won 9 of 13 races 69%.
There is the start of a spread of results in races with 16 runners, and possibly
15 runners.
This becomes more pronounced in races of 18 runners, where only 4 wins in 11
races came from stalls 1 to 6.
That may not be what most people
would expect of races at Chester, but distance often has a negative effect on draw advantage results,
and these races of almost 1 mile demonstrate that point :-
During 2005 and 2006, on good or better going, 3 of 6 races were won from the
Top 3 stalls.
Only 2 of 6 winners drawn 4 of 8 and 6-18 started from the Bottom half of the
draw.
Far stronger and more reliable patterns can be found elsewhere with very high percentages of wins
and over much shorter distances.
There is no recommendation.
On good to soft or softer going
(results shown in red),
10 of 15 races were won from the bottom half of the draw, but only 6 of those
wins came from stalls 1 - 6, 40%.
15 races is a very
small sample, but that is a very low percentage for 6 stalls.
2006 results :- 4-8, 10-10,
10-11, 8-17, 6-18
2005 results :- 2-11, 7-14,
12-14, 13-15, 13-18, 9-16
|