Draw advantage bias Doncaster  5F only     2001 - 2005

Stalls usually positioned High
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Follow this link to view all Doncaster 5F results 1997 - 2005

One of the strongest draw advantages in the country could be developing in these races.
Mention Doncaster and the draw in the same breath, and most people will immediately think of The Lincoln Handicap over the straight mile.
There has never been a strong draw advantage in those straight mile races.
In the past, one of the strongest draw advantage patterns in the country was to be found at Doncaster, but in races of 5F and 5F 140yds.
It looks like that very strong draw advantage could be resurfacing.

The chart below shows the 5F results of the 5 seasons 2001 - 2005, for horses aged 3 years and older.
There were no races during 2006 due to the building of a new stand.
In order to show what has been happening in these races, the results for those 5 seasons, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 are numbered :-
Results for 2001 are shown 1, 2002 are shown 2, 2003 are shown 3, 2004 are shown 4, and 2005 are shown 5.
For example, in races of 8 runners, there was one winner in 2002 from stall 6 and one winner each in 2003 and 2005 from stall 8.
As usual, results on
good, good to soft in places or softer going are shown in red. good or better results are in black.

Doncaster  5F  Stalls usually positioned High
Note that this chart does not include Portland Handicap races over 5F 140yds

WINNING STALL NUMBER

 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
No

of

R

U

N

E

R

S

8           2   35
9 3 4       4   1   3yr olds and older
5 seasons results
2001 - 2005
10   2                
11                     24
12             5 3 1   14 5
13     5                   4
14 13     3               4 1  
15                              
16                 2 3            
17           2               1     5
18                 3                  
19                                      
20                     5           5   4  
21     5                                 3  
22   3   3                   2 2   14 4   12   12
2 2 1 2 0 2

<--Good or better -->

2 2 3 4 4 6

Bottom 6

Top 6

Copyright 2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.

Totals are shown for the number of wins on good or better going from stalls 1 to 6 and the Top 6 stalls.

There is a very strong pattern forming here concerning the Top 6 stalls.
This pattern has been formed by the results of the years 2001, 2002, 2004 and 2005, but not 2003. 
I have no explanation for the apparent failure of 2003, apart from that year being a very dry season, but that is only a guess.
If we look at the results for 2001, 2002, 2004 and 2005, shown 1, 2, 4, and 5 on the chart, a very strong pattern is emerging.
On good or better going, in the years 2001, 2, 4, and 5, there were 22 races.
The Top 6 stalls won 19 of 22 races 86 %.
The Top 3 stalls won 13 of 22 races 59 %.
The Top 2 stalls won   9 of 22 races 40 %.

Just 3 horses won over half of these races in those 4 years 59%.

If you look on the part of the chart that is NOT coloured Blue, there are only 3 black race results numbered 2, 4 and 5.
These are the results 2 of 9 (2004), 3 of 13 (2005), and  9-16 (2002).
All the other black results (results on good or better going), occurred in 2003, a very dry year.

This is definitely a draw advantage to keep an eye on, particularly if the going is good or better and there has been little or no artificial watering of the course.
Now that we have the 2004 and 2005 results, maybe we can explain the 2003 failure, but very dry conditions may not have been the cause.

5F only.
On good or better going (in those 4 years) in races of 8 to 18 runners the Top 6 stalls won 13 of 16 races 81%.

That has been the recommendation for this course and distance since the St Leger meeting of September 2004.
On good or better going (in all 5 years) in races of 8 to 18 runners the Top 6 stalls won 15 of 23 races 65%.

On good/good to soft in places or softer going (results shown in red), results are spread across most stalls throughout this chart.
In races of 17 or more runners, the Top half of the draw won 9 of 11 races.
11 races is a very small sample, and as a general rule, results on this type of going often prove to be unreliable.

2006 results :- No races due to the building of a new grandstand.

2005 results  :-  8-8, 7-12, 12-12, 3-13, 17-17,11-20, 17-20, 3-21

Historically, Doncaster 5F and 5F 140 yds races produced the strongest draw advantage in the country, but this was quite some time ago.
In the 6 years 1976 - 1981, on all types of going, in races of 8 to 20 runners, the Top 2 stalls won 18 of  40 races  45 %
On good or better going the Top 6 stalls won 23 of 27 races 85 %.
Following that series of results, which I highlighted in the National Press before the start of the 1982 flat season in order to promote a book of draw advantage charts, 1982 produced the following results :-
9 of 9, 11-11, 9-10, 7-7, 6-7, 3-4, 11-15, 2-26.   Results on Good to soft or softer going are shown in red.
An amazing 6 out of 8 races were won by just 2 horses - those drawn in the Top 2 stalls.

Extensive drainage work was carried out at Doncaster in the mid 1980's, presumably to counteract this phenomenal draw advantage.
As a result, there has been no particular bias towards the Top 6 stalls for quite some time, but now, as you can see from the results above, the draw advantage of old could be resurfacing.
This is definitely a draw advantage to keep an eye on, particularly if the going is good or better and there has been little or no artificial watering of the course.