The Lincoln Handicap takes place at Newcastle this year.
There are 2 charts on this web page.
Race Of The Week          Course and Distance menu
Consider both charts, but pay particular attention to the smaller chart at the bottom of the web page for the most accurate information if there is a race with lots of runners.

From a draw advantage point of view, the most influential factor in races over this course and distance is undoubtedly the distance of 1 mile.
There are 3 great levelers which as a general rule, have a negative affect on draw advantages :- good/good to soft in places or softer going, increased numbers of runners and longer distance races.
Race results over the Doncaster straight mile suffer from all 3 of these factors.
Although one side of the course may dominate on the day, overall, this is a pattern of no advantage in the long term, certainly on good or better going.

DONCASTER 1M STRAIGHT
Stalls usually positioned HIGH (Low are shown L )

WINNING STALL NUMBER

 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
No

of

R

U

N

E

R

S

8     111 1  1
9   1 1   1 11   1   3yr olds & older only
9 years results
1997 - 2005
10  11 111 1    1 1   1 1  
11 1             1     L
12   1   1       1   11    
13   1      1           1    
14     1                    1  
15      1                       
16              1         1   1     
17           1                      
18                                   1
19                                     11
20                                        
21       1                                  
22 1                       1                   
23 1                                            
24 11111 1 1 111   1 1 11   1                 1   1   11  
4 6 2 3 3 3

<--Good or better going -->

1 5 5 3 6 2
19 21

Copyright 2003 [Howard Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.

A very weak pattern.
On good or better going, the Top half, Bottom half split shown at the bottom of the chart, slightly favours the Top half of the draw by 21 wins to 19.
On good or better going in races of 8 - 20 runners :-
the Top 5 stalls won 18 of 31 races 58%.
Stalls 1 - 6 won 17 of 31 races 54%.
5 races with 8 to 10 runners fell within both stalls 1 to 6 and the Top 5 stalls.
Those are not high percentages for 5 and 6 stalls.
In races of 8 to 11 runners, there is a spread of results across most stalls.
This continues throughout the chart, with the result that there is no clustering of wins from just a few stalls which we would expect to see if there was a significant draw advantage.

Looking at the chart above, in races of 20 or more runners, there is a very obvious looking bias favouring stalls 1 to 10, on all types of going, but this could be misleading.
On the last day of the flat season, in the 7 years 1997 - 2003 there was an amateurs race for lady riders over this straight mile.
All those 7 races were won by horses drawn in stalls 1 to 4.
You may choose to include all races in your assessment, in which case:-
In races of more than 20 runners, on all types of going, stalls 1 to 4 won 13 of 23 races, a very respectable 56 % from only 4 stalls.

However, remove these amateur rider's results, and we are left with races for professional jockeys, which is slightly less convincing.  The chart below shows the same results, but with the 7 races for lady riders excluded.

 

WINNING STALL NUMBER

   
  1 2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
18                                   1            
19                                     11          
20                                                
21                                                
22 1                        1                      
23 1                                              
24 11   1 1   1 1 11   1                 1   1   11  
             

<--Good or better going  -->

           
 

Bottom 6

  Top 6

Copyright 2005 [Howard Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.

Now you can see that on good/good to soft in places, or softer going (the red results), all 7 races of 23 or 24 runners were won from stalls 1-10, but there is not a cluster of wins from stalls 1 to 4.  The wins are spread evenly from 1 to 10.
Also, in races of 18 and 19 runners, all 3 wins on good to soft or softer going came from the Top stall.
These 3 results are a further indication that there is not a strong bias favouring the bottom few stalls on good/good to soft in places or softer going.

On good or better going (the black results), there are just 9 race results.  4 wins from stalls 1 to 8, and 4 wins from the Top 6 stalls.
One other winner, the 2005 Lincoln winner was drawn 13 of 22.
Although 9 results on good or better going are certainly not a satisfactory sample, you can see that collectively, they are spread across most stalls.
Normally, this could indicate the start of an even spread of results which would be likely to continue in future, and we would wait to see what happened in future races.

This is certainly not a draw advantage pattern worth betting on, but every year there is a great deal of speculation concerning the draw for The Lincoln Handicap at the start of the season.

Historically, the pattern of results has been very much the same.

2006 results :- No races due to the building of a new grandstand.

2005 results :-  1-10, 6-10, 2-12, 2-13, 3-15, 14-16, 1-22, 13-22 (Lincoln).

2004 results.  5-8, 8-8, 6-9, 1-10, 12-15,  7-16, 6-17, 19-24, 23-24.