The Lincoln Handicap takes place at Newcastle
this year.
There are 2 charts on this web page.
Race Of The Week
Course and Distance menu
Consider both charts, but pay particular attention to the smaller chart at the
bottom of the web page for the most accurate information if there is a race with
lots of runners.
From a draw advantage point of view,
the most influential factor in races over this course and distance is
undoubtedly the distance of 1 mile.
There are 3 great levelers which as a general rule, have a negative affect on draw
advantages :- good/good to soft in places or softer going, increased numbers of runners
and longer distance races.
Race results over the Doncaster straight mile suffer from all 3 of these
factors.
Although one side of the course may dominate
on the day, overall, this is a pattern of no
advantage in the long term, certainly on
good or better going.
DONCASTER
1M STRAIGHT
Stalls usually positioned
HIGH (Low are shown L )
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
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of
R
U
N
E
R
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8 |
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1 |
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1 |
111 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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| 9 |
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1 |
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1 |
11 |
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1 |
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3yr olds
& older only
9 years results
1997 - 2005 |
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| 10 |
11 |
111 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 11 |
1 |
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1 |
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L |
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| 12 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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11 |
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| 13 |
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1
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1 |
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1 |
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| 14 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 15 |
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1
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1 |
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| 16 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 19 |
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11 |
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| 20 |
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| 21 |
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1 |
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| 22 |
1 |
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1 |
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| 23 |
1 |
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| 24 |
11111 |
1 |
1 |
111 |
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1 |
1 |
11 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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11 |
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4 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
<--Good or better going --> |
1 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
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19 |
21 |
Copyright © 2003 [Howard
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
|
A very weak pattern.
On good or better going, the Top half, Bottom half split shown at the bottom of
the chart, slightly favours the Top half of the draw by 21 wins to 19.
On good or better going in races of 8 - 20 runners :-
the Top 5 stalls won 18 of 31 races 58%.
Stalls 1 - 6 won 17 of 31 races 54%.
5 races with 8 to 10 runners fell within both stalls 1 to 6 and the Top 5
stalls.
Those are not high percentages for 5 and 6 stalls.
In races of 8 to 11 runners, there is a spread of results across most stalls.
This continues throughout the chart, with the result that there is no clustering of
wins from just a few stalls which we would expect to
see if there was a significant draw advantage.
Looking at the chart above, in races of 20 or more runners, there is a very obvious looking bias favouring stalls 1 to 10, on all
types of going, but this could be misleading.
On the last day of the flat season, in the 7 years 1997 - 2003 there was an amateurs race for lady riders
over this straight mile.
All those 7 races were won by horses drawn in
stalls 1 to 4.
You may choose to include all races in your assessment, in which case:-
In races of more than 20 runners, on all types of going, stalls 1 to 4 won 13 of
23 races, a very respectable 56 % from only 4 stalls.
However, remove
these amateur rider's results, and we are left with races for professional jockeys,
which is slightly less convincing. The chart below shows the same results,
but with the 7 races for lady riders excluded.
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| 18 |
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1 |
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11 |
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| 20 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
1 |
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1 |
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| 23 |
1 |
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| 24 |
11 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
11 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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11 |
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<--Good or better going -->
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Bottom 6 |
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Top
6
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Copyright © 2005 [Howard
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
|
Now you can see that
on
good/good to soft in places, or softer
going (the red
results), all 7 races of 23 or 24 runners were won from stalls 1-10, but there is not a cluster of
wins from stalls 1 to 4. The wins are spread evenly from 1 to 10.
Also, in races of 18 and 19 runners, all 3 wins on good to soft or softer going
came from the Top stall.
These 3 results are a further indication that there is not a strong bias
favouring the bottom few stalls on good/good to soft in places or softer going.
On good or better going
(the black results), there are just 9 race results.
4 wins from stalls 1 to
8, and 4 wins from the Top 6 stalls.
One other winner, the 2005 Lincoln winner was drawn 13 of 22.
Although 9 results on good or better going are certainly not a satisfactory
sample, you can see that collectively, they are spread across most stalls.
Normally, this could indicate the start of an even spread of results which would
be likely to continue in future, and we would wait to see what happened in
future races.
This is certainly not a draw advantage pattern worth betting on, but every
year there is a great deal of speculation concerning the draw for The Lincoln
Handicap at the start of the season.
Historically, the
pattern of results has been very much the same.
2006
results :- No races due to the building of a new grandstand.
2005 results
:- 1-10, 6-10, 2-12, 2-13,
3-15, 14-16, 1-22, 13-22
(Lincoln).
2004 results.
5-8, 8-8,
6-9, 1-10, 12-15, 7-16, 6-17, 19-24, 23-24.
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