Horse racing draw advantage bias Epsom 5F

Horse racing draw advantage bias EPSOM 5F
Stalls usually positioned HIGH 2 charts (See LOW stalls positioning below).

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During the 1970's and 1980's, this used to be by far, the strongest draw advantage in the country.
In order to promote a book of charts, I published in 1981, I described this draw advantage in the reader's letters section of what is now Raceform Update, using the lower of these 2 charts (stalls positioned Low).
2 articles were published, 2 years apart.
At that time, ALL our National and Sporting newspapers recommended a LOW draw advantage in these races.
They continued with this advice for at least the 10years 1976 to 1985.
Just 3 horses were winning around 75% of these races during that period, but they were the 3 horses drawn in the Top 3 stalls.
Epsom Racecourse now place the stalls against the High rail in all 5F races.
The result of this adjustment is that the draw advantage is not as pronounced as it was, but there is still a good pattern worth following.
You can see the effect of different stalls positioning by comparing the 2 charts below for High and Low stalls positioning.
Bear in mind that now, the stalls are never positioned Low in 5F races, but if they are, use the lower of the 2 charts.

WINNING STALL NUMBER
		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
No of R U N E R S	8		1
	9		1
	10		1							11							Stalls positioned HIGH
	11	1									11	1
	12	1			1	1				F	1
	13			1					11	1	1	1
	14									1	1	1			1
	15										1			1
	16								1
	17												1
	18									1
	19							1						1
	20								1		1							1
	21
	22
		1	2	0	1	0	0	<--Good or better -->										4	1	3	2	3	1
		8											16

Aug 22nd 2001 result, winner drawn 9 of 18, should have been a void race.
Stalls 12 to 17 opened slightly after all the other stalls. It is therefore excluded from this summary.
F Result 9 of 12 was a flip start.

The very strong pattern of results from the Top few stalls has been reduced by the positioning of the stalls against the High rail, but there still appears to be a good advantage for the Top 6 stalls.
There are usually only a few races each year, but this pattern is beginning to shape up very nicely.

On good or better going, the Bottom half - Top half split favours the Top half of the draw by 16 wins against 8.

On good or better going, the Top 6 stalls won 15 of 24 races 62.5%.
There could be a spread of results starting in races of around 19 and 20 runners, and there are wins from stalls 1 and 4 with 12 runners.
On good or better going in races of 8 to 18 runners, the Top 6 stalls won 14 of 19 races 73.7%.
During 2005 there were 2 wins under those conditions, but one losing race in 2006.
The recommendation of the last 3 seasons remains unaltered :-
Stalls High. On good or better going in races of 13 to 18 runners,
the Top 6 stalls won 9 of 10 races 90%.

You may also consider a Lay :-
Stalls High. On good or better going in races of 14 or more runners,
stalls 1 - 6 won 0 in 11 races.

On good/good to soft in places or softer going, (results shown in red), there were 4 wins from stalls 1 - 5 and 5 wins from the Top 6 stalls.
This has the makings of a spread of results across all stalls.
There is no recommendation on this type of going.

2006 results :- 2-9, 8-13, 17-20

2005 results :- 5-12, 10-11, 8-13, 10-20

EPSOM 5F 1976 - 1983 Stalls positioned LOW sometimes CENTRE.

WINNING STALL NUMBER
		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
No of R U N E R S	8							1	1
	9		1							1							Stalls positioned LOW
	10			1					1	1
	11	1			1					1		111
	12										11
	13
	14
	15									11
	16																1
	17														1
	18																	1
	19
	20
	21
	22
		0	1	1	1	0	0	<--Good or better -->										0	0	0	4	2	6
		3											13

There are 8 years' results here, 1976 - 1983.
The stalls have not been positioned Low in these races during the last 10 years.
On good or better going, there are only 4 wins which did not come from the Top 3 stalls.
On any type of going, there are only 4 wins from the Bottom 1/2 of the draw.
Despite those results, throughout the late 1970's and well into the 1980's, ALL our national, sporting and daily newspapers recommended a LOW draw advantage in these races.
Unbelievable, but true.

A very strong pattern.
On good or better going, the Top 3 stalls won 12 of 16 races 75 %.
That is an amazing percentage for only 3 stalls.
They were of course, the 3 horses drawn farthest away from the Low rail, towards the middle of the course.
You can see why the stalls are now always placed against the High rail.

Stalls Low. On good or better going, consider the Top 6 stalls :-
In races of 8 or more runners, the Top 3 stalls won 12 of 16 races 75%.

1984 and 1985 results. Unfortunately, I kept no records of the going.
In races of 8 or more runners, all 5 winners started from the Top 6 stalls.
1 winner started from stalls 1 to 6, and there were no wins from the Bottom half of the draw.
Winner 6 of 11 runners was dead centre in that race.

1984	1985	These results are not on the chart. You can see how they followed the pattern. The number of stalls from the Top stall is shown (in brackets).
6 - 11 (6)	12 - 13 (2)
9 - 12 (4)	10 - 12 (3)
9 - 13 (5)	7 - 7 (1)