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Horse racing draw advantage bias HAMILTON
5F
Stalls usually positioned LOW (
HIGH are shown H, Centre C )
Link
to course and distance menu
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
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of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
11 |
1 |
11C |
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111 |
1111HH |
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111 |
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| 9 |
C |
1 |
11 |
CC |
1 |
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1 |
11 |
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| 10 |
1 |
11 |
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1 |
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111H |
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1H |
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| 11 |
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C |
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1H |
1 |
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H1 |
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11 |
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| 12 |
H |
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1 |
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C |
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1 |
C1C |
1 |
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| 13 |
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1 |
11C |
1 |
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1 |
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| 14 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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H |
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1 |
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1 |
C |
C |
1 |
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| 15 |
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| 16 |
HC |
C |
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C |
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1 |
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| 17 |
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1 |
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1 |
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H |
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| 18 |
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11 |
H |
1 |
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1 |
1F |
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111 |
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1 |
11H |
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HH1 |
1 |
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| 19 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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3 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
<--Good or better --> |
3 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
6 |
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23 |
25 |
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F -
result 9 of 18 was a flip start on heavy going.
During 2005, the stalls were positioned Centre for the first time in 6 of these
races. In 2006 they were placed Centre in 7 of 12 races, but this appears to have had little effect on the overall pattern.
Splits occur regularly at Hamilton when jockeys cross to the High rail in search
of better going.
It is probably this manouvre which encourages newspapers to advise a High advantage here,
which is not a true reflection of what has been happening at the winning post.
On good or better going,
the Bottom half, Top half split is pretty even, 23 wins against 25.
2 other winners
were dead centre.
On good or better going, stalls 1 to 6 won 28 of 50 races 56%, not a high
percentage for 6 stalls.
The Top 6 stalls won 26 of 50 races 52%, even lower.
In 2004, 4 of 5 races were won from stalls 1 - 4.
In 2005, 4 of 6 races were won from stalls 1 - 5.
In 2006, 4 of 8 races were won from stalls 1 - 6.
Newspaper draw advantage advice certainly doesn't reflect those results.
There is nothing here worthy of a recommendation.
On
good/good to soft in places or softer
going, in races of 8 - 15 runners, the Top 4 stalls
won 19 of 31 races 61%.
In 2004, 4 of 7 races were won from the Top 4 stalls, and
In 2005, 3 of 5 races were won from the Top 2 stalls under those conditions.
The 2006 advice was that "As a general rule, draw advantages on this type of going, can prove unreliable.
It may be best to await more races with stalls positioned Centre, to
see what effect this has on this part of the pattern."
The 2006 winners (8 - 15 runners) were drawn 3 of 8 and 2 of 11.
2006 results :- 3-8,
4-9, 2-11, 6-12,
11-12, 1-16, 13-16
All had stalls Centre.
6-8, 8-8, 1-10, 7-10, 9-14, All had stalls Low.
Copyright © 2003 [Howard
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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