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Horse racing draw advantage bias
HAMILTON 6F
Stalls usually positioned LOW (
HIGH are shown H )
Link
to course and distance menu
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
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of
R
U
N
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R
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8 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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1111 |
C11H |
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| 9 |
11 |
111 |
1C |
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C |
C11 |
1 |
11C |
1 |
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| 10 |
111 |
1 |
1 |
C11 |
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1 |
CH1 |
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1C |
1 |
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| 11 |
CC1 |
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1 |
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H |
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11 |
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1 |
1C |
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| 12 |
1 |
1 |
C |
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1 |
1 |
HC |
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1 |
H |
11 |
1 |
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| 13 |
C |
1 |
H1 |
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1 |
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1H |
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1 |
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111 |
1 |
1C |
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| 14 |
C |
11 |
1 |
1 |
H |
1H |
11 |
F |
11 |
1 |
H1 |
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11 |
1 |
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| 15 |
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1 |
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C |
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C |
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| 16 |
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C |
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1 |
1 |
H |
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HC |
C |
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1 |
11 |
1 |
H |
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| 17 |
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1 |
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H |
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1 |
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| 18 |
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H |
H11 |
11 |
H |
1 |
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1HH |
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111 |
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11H1 |
HH |
11 |
1 |
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| 19 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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7 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
<--Good or better --> |
2 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
10 |
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34 |
46 |
Copyright © 2005 [H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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F = Flag start.
"High numbers Best" and "High numbers favoured in sprints"
etc. has been the accepted draw advantage advice for years at Hamilton.
Newspapers often recommend a High draw advantage in Hamilton sprints, but there
is not a draw advantage worth recommending in these races.
On good or better going, the Bottom half,
Top half split slightly favours the Top half of the draw, but this is a very weak pattern.
On all types of going, results are spread across most stalls throughout this
chart.
On good or better
going, the Top 6 stalls won 43 of 81 races 53%.
Stalls 1 to 6 won 33 of 81 races, with 1 other winner drawn dead centre.
There is is no clustering of results in a minority of stalls anywhere on this
chart on any type of going.
Any advantage to High stalls is only very marginal.
Quite a bit of cross course
manouvreing takes place on this course, with the
runners crossing over to the High side of the course in many races, looking for
better ground.
In the long term these manouvres do not appear to produce a reliable advantage worth
betting on.
An interesting article in Raceform Update June 16th 2004 described the use
of a false running rail on the high side of the course, about 4 or 5 horse
widths from the permanent High rail.
If used on a regular basis, this could be a measure taken by Hamilton racecourse
as a means of eliminating a perceived High advantage, or maybe it's a turf
management measure.
During 2005, the stalls were positioned
Centre for the first time in 9 of 16 races, and 10 of 18 races in 2006.
Different positioning of the stalls doesn't appear to either enhance or
eliminate an advantage of any kind.
The combination of the false rail and central positioning of the stalls could
contribute to the spread of results, but before these measures were introduced,
results of these races did not consistently favour High drawn horses.
2006 results :- Stalls Centre 8-8, 3-9, 5-9,
8-9, 4-10, 7-10, 11-11,
1-13,
8-14 (flag), 13-15, 3-16
Stalls Low 6-9, 9-9, 1-10, 1-11,
3-11, 7-13, 6-14, 7-14, 14-16
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