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Horse racing draw advantage bias
LEICESTER 5F
Stalls usually positioned LOW (
HIGH are shown H )
Link
to course and distance menu
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
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of
R
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N
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8 |
1 |
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1 |
H |
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1 |
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| 9 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
11 |
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| 10 |
1 |
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H1 |
11 |
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1 |
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| 11 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 12 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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| 13 |
11 |
1 |
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| 14 |
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1H |
1 |
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1 |
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| 15 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 16 |
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1 |
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11 |
1 |
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| 17 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 18 |
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| 19 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 20 |
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1 |
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| 21 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 22 |
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11 |
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| 23 |
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| 24 |
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7 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
<--Good or better --> |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
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21 |
18 |
Copyright © 2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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A very weak
pattern.
Results are spread across most stalls throughout this chart.
On good or better going, the Bottom half, Top half splits shown at the bottom of
the chart are almost even, 21 wins to 18.
On good or better going Stalls 1 to 6 won 24 of 39 races 61%.
The Top 6 stalls won 16 races.
In 2006, 5 of 6 races were won from stalls 1 to 3 but those results didn't
follow any previous trend.
On good or better going in races of 12 or more runners, the Top 3 stalls won
only 1 of 21 races.
This is a straight course, so in theory, if field sizes are influential, it
would appear that as field sizes increase, horses drawn High encounter slower
ground towards the Centre or High side of the course, or at least away from the Low rail.
In fields of 12 to 19 runners, the Top 6 stalls have been DISadvantaged.
The 3 results with stalls positioned
High were all won from stalls 1 - 6.
Although one race only had 8 runners, the other 2 results could be a further
indication that
faster ground is to be found by horses drawn towards the Centre of the course,
or at least this time away from the High rail, in the Bottom half of the draw, but 3 races is a very small sample.
In theory, it appears that the Low side of the course rides faster than
the High side, but this is not evident from the overall results.
If there is any draw advantage here,
it may be best to look at the DIS-advantage of the Top 6 stalls in races of 12
to 19 runners when the stalls are placed Low.
I feel we are clutching at straws here, looking for an advantage within an
overall pattern of no advantage.
At present, there is no
recommendation.
2006 results :-
1-8, 1-11, 1-11, 1-12, 2-12, 3-14, 10-14
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