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Horse racing draw advantage bias
NEWCASTLE 1m Straight
Stalls usually positioned HIGH, sometimes Low
(L), or Centre (C)
2 charts. See 2nd chart below for Newcastle
1m Round.
Stalls positioning is only shown for 2004 and 2005.
Link
to course and distance menu
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
| No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 9 |
11 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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Im
Straight |
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| 10 |
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1 |
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1 |
11 |
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| 11 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 12 |
1 |
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11 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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| 13 |
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1 |
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| 14 |
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| 15 |
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C |
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1 |
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| 16 |
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C |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 17 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
L |
1 |
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1 |
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| 18 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 19 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 20 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
111 |
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11 |
C |
11 |
11 |
11 |
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2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
<--Good or better --> |
3 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
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6
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24
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Copyright © 2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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On good or better going, the
Bottom half, Top half split favours the Top half
by 4 to 1.
The Top 6 stalls won 22 of 32 races 69%.
On good or better going, in races of 9 or more runners, stalls 1 to 3 won 0 in
26 races.
You may choose to follow those trends, but this is a straight mile and Newcastle
7F
races show no supporting pattern.
In theory at least, we would expect the 7F races to show a stronger pattern than
the mile races, so unless these races are decided in the first furlong or so,
these results could easily be coincidence.
In 2006, on good or better going, the Top 6 stalls won 2 in 4 races.
There is no recommendation, but it may be worth keeping an eye on these
races for the future.
2006 results :- 1-9, 5-9, 8-11,
6-12, 10-17, 12-17, 14-17,
16-17
Draw advantage bias
NEWCASTLE 1m Round
Stalls usually positioned LOW, sometimes
Centre (C)
2 charts. See 2nd chart below for Newcastle
1m Round.
Stalls positioning is only shown for 2004, 2005 and 2006.
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
|
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
| No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
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11 |
1 |
1C |
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| 9 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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C |
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1M
Round |
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| 10 |
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C |
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11L |
1 |
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11 |
1 |
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| 11 |
L |
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| 12 |
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1 |
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1L |
1 |
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| 13 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1C |
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| 14 |
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111 |
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1 |
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| 15 |
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1 |
C |
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| 16 |
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1 |
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C |
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| 17 |
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11 |
C |
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C |
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1 |
C |
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1 |
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| 18 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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| 19 |
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1 |
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| 20 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
11 |
11 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
12 |
2 |
<--Good or better --> |
3 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
6 |
3 |
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26
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15
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Copyright © 2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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This is a left handed course, so we would expect Low
stalls to be favoured, but note how there are no wins from stalls 1 to 4 in
races of 14 to 19 runners.
This is a very weak pattern.
Although on good or better going the Bottom half of the draw has been favoured
by almost 2 to 1 over the Top half, over such a long distance, this could easily
be coincidence.
The lack of wins from stalls 1 to 4 in races of 14 to 19 runners could be
significant, but we should not read too much into that at present.
Traffic problems could be the cause, but future races will prove or disprove
this part of the pattern.
Central positioning of the stalls does not seem to favour any section of the
stalls, but with stalls Low, stalls 1 to 5 won 3 of 3 races in 2004 and 2005.
Obviously, we need more stalls positioning information before that can be
confirmed as a draw advantage.
On good or better going, stalls 1 to 6 won 25 of 43 races 58%, a very low
percentage for 6 stalls.
The Top 6 stalls won 18 races.
2 winners were drawn dead centre.
Over such a long distance, there is no recommendation.
Results are not likely to prove consistent.
On good/good
to soft in places or softer
going, there are not many results, but wins are spread across a wide range
of stall numbers.
2006 results :- 9-9 (C), 12-15
(C)
2005 results :- 7-8, 2-10,
1-11 (L), 16-16, 6-17, 9-17,
14-17.
All had stalls Centre except where indicated.
There were more races on the round course in 2005, due to drainage work on the
straight course in October 2005.
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