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Horse racing draw advantage bias
NEWCASTLE 6F
Stalls usually positioned
HIGH ( Low are shown L, Centre C )
Link
to course and distance menu
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
| No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
11 |
11 |
1 |
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| 9 |
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1 |
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| 10 |
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1 |
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1 |
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11 |
1 |
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| 11 |
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1 |
11 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 12 |
L |
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1 |
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1 |
11 |
1 |
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1 |
11 |
L |
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| 13 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 14 |
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1 |
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1 |
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111 |
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| 15 |
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1 |
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1 |
C |
C111 |
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| 16 |
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1 |
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| 17 |
1 |
C |
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11 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
C |
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| 18 |
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11 |
1 |
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| 19 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 20 |
11 |
1 |
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111 |
11111 |
11 |
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1 |
111 |
11 |
111 |
C1 |
1 |
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11 |
11 |
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11 |
11 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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3 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
<--Good or better --> |
4 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
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23 |
36 |
Copyright © 2005
[H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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On good or better going, the Bottom half/Top half
split favours the Top half of the draw by 36 wins to 23.
2 other winners were drawn dead centre.
There are spreads of results in races of 8, 12, and 20 runners.
On good or better going the Top 6 stalls won 34 of 61 races 56%.
Stalls 1 to 6 won 23 races.
A recommendation on
good or better going for 9 to 15 runners during 2004 and 2005 produced 5 winners
in 7 races during those 2 seasons, under those conditions.
During 2005, the stalls were positioned Low in 2 of those races - results 1 of
12 and 11 of 12.
The 2006 advice was refined further to exclude Low positioning of the
stalls, pending further results with stalls positioned Low.
Stalls High or Centre.
On good or better going, in races of 9 - 15 runners, the Top 6 stalls won
20 of 26 races 77 %.
In 2006 the Top 6 stalls won 1 of 2 races under those conditions.
This is not a strong pattern, and is only one to watch at present.
Splits occur in these races
mainly when the going is softer than good, when jockeys search for better
ground towards the Low side of the course.
Small fields can split as well as big fields and this probably has some effect
on results.
The overall good, good to soft in places or softer
pattern favours the Bottom half of the draw,
but the pattern is weak, with no minority of stalls dominant.
In 2006, all 4 winners started from the Top 7 stalls on going softer than good.
There is no recommendation on good, good to soft in places or softer going.
2006 results :- 4-10, 15-15, 15-15,
2-17 (C), 5-17, 11-17, 16-17, 17-17 (C),
11-20,
Stalls positioned high, unless
indicated otherwise.
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