Horse racing draw advantage bias NEWCASTLE 6F
Stalls usually positioned HIGH ( Low are shown L, Centre C )

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WINNING STALL NUMBER

 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
No

of

R

U

N

E

R

S

8   1   1 1 11 11 1
9              1     
10        1   1   11 1  
11     1 11   1         1
12 L   1   1 11 1    1 11 L  
13   1        1   1         1
14        1              1     111
15   1                      1 C C111
16                 1              
17 1 C     11   1   1   1     1   1 C
18                 11 1                
19       1         1   1       1   1    
20 11 1   111 11111 11   1 111 11 111 C1 1   11 11     11 11
21                                          
22                                            
3 2 1 5 6 6

<--Good or better -->

4 5 3 8 5 9
23 36

Copyright 2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.

On good or better going, the Bottom half/Top half split favours the Top half of the draw by 36 wins to 23.
2 other winners were drawn dead centre.
There are spreads of results in races of 8, 12, and 20 runners.
On good or better going the Top 6 stalls won 34 of 61 races 56%.
Stalls 1 to 6 won 23 races.

A recommendation on good or better going for 9 to 15 runners during 2004 and 2005 produced 5 winners in 7 races during those 2 seasons, under those conditions.
During 2005, the stalls were positioned Low in 2 of those races - results 1 of 12 and 11 of 12.
The 2006 advice was refined further to exclude Low positioning of the stalls, pending further results with stalls positioned Low.

Stalls High or Centre.
On good or better going, in races of 9 - 15 runners, the Top 6 stalls won 20 of 26 races 77 %.
In 2006 the Top 6 stalls won 1 of 2 races under those conditions.
This is not a strong pattern, and is only one to watch at present.

Splits occur in these races mainly when the going is softer than good, when jockeys search for better ground towards the Low side of the course.
Small fields can split as well as big fields and this probably has some effect on results.
The overall
good, good to soft in places or softer pattern favours the Bottom half of the draw, but the pattern is weak, with no minority of stalls dominant.
In 2006, all 4 winners started from the Top 7 stalls on going softer than good.
There is no recommendation on good, good to soft in places or softer going.

2006 results :-   4-10, 15-15, 15-15, 2-17 (C), 5-17, 11-17, 16-17, 17-17 (C), 11-20, 
Stalls positioned high, unless indicated otherwise.