Horse
racing draw advantage bias
Both the Rowley course
and the July course are sometimes split in half using a temporary running rail.
Races are then run on either the Low half of the course, or the High half of the
course.
At present, there is no indication in race returns of this course splitting.
I would guess that in general, results showing Low positioning of the stalls
will mainly be run on the Low half of the course, and races with stalls
positioned High, will mainly be run on the High half of the course.
Results with stalls Centre could have taken place on either the Low half of
the course or the High half of the course.
As described in the Racing Post's "Top Draw" feature, the stalls can
be positioned in 6 different places due to course splitting.
High, Low and Centre on the Low half of the course, and High, Low and Centre on
the High half of the course.
Horse racing draw advantage bias
NEWMARKET JULY 6F
Stalls positioned LOW
(L) and Centre (C)
2 charts
See High positioning on bottom chart
Link
to course and distance menu
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
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1 |
C |
1 |
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11 |
1 |
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9 |
1111 |
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11 |
1 |
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10 |
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1 |
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1 |
11 |
C1 |
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Stalls
positioned LOW |
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11 |
1 |
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11 |
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C |
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1 |
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12 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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13 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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14 |
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11 |
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15 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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16 |
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1 |
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1 |
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17 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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18 |
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1 |
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1 |
C |
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1 |
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19 |
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1 |
1 |
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20 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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11 |
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21 |
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6 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
<--Good or better --> |
3 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
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18 |
20 |
Copyright © 2005
[H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
|
A very weak pattern.
At first glance, this looks like a high draw advantage in races of 10 to 17
runners.
However, on good or better going, in races of 10 to 17 runners, the Top 1/2
of the draw only won 12 of 21 races.
The Bottom 1/2 won 6 of 21 races. 3 races were dead centre.
There is no clustering of results anywhere on this chart.
2006 results :- 3-10, 10-15,
15-17, 1-20
NEWMARKET JULY 6F
Stalls
positioned HIGH See chart above
for Low and Centre positioning.
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
1 |
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1 |
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111 |
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1 |
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9 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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111 |
1 |
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10 |
111 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
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Stalls
positioned HIGH |
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11 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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12 |
1 |
1 |
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11 |
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1 |
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1 |
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13 |
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1 |
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11 |
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11 |
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14 |
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1 |
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15 |
11 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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16 |
1 |
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1 |
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17 |
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1 |
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1 |
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18 |
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1 |
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19 |
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20 |
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1 |
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21 |
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8 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
<--Good or better --> |
3 |
4 |
2 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
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15 |
25 |
Copyright © 2003 [Howard
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
|
The Top half / Bottom half split
favours the Top half by 25 wins against 15.
On good or better going the Top 6 stalls won 26 of 41 races 63 %.
You may choose to follow that trend, but there are definite spreads of results in races of
9 to 12 runners, and no
clustering of results above that.
In 2006, wins were spread.
On good or better going the Top 6 stalls won only 2 of 6.
Stalls 1 to 6 won 4 of 6 races.
As in previous years, there is no recommendation.
2006 results :- 3-9,
1-12, 6-12, 10-12, 1-15, 5-15,
11-15,
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