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Horse racing draw advantage bias
PONTEFRACT 5F
Stalls usually positioned LOW ( Centre
are shown C )
Link
to course and distance menu
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
| No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 9 |
11 |
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1 |
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| 10 |
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1 |
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| 11 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 12 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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| 13 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 14 |
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1 |
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11 |
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| 15 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 16 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 17 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
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11 |
1 |
1 |
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| 18 |
1 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
111 |
11 |
11 |
1 |
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C111 |
1111 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
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111 |
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| 19 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
<--Good or better --> |
3 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
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24 |
31 |
Copyright © 2005
[H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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Newspaper draw advantage advice for this course is
extremely poor.
Most newspapers mention a Low draw advantage, and some suggest "Low numbers
best on soft going".
That is not what has been happening in these races, or the 6F races during the
last 10 years.
This is a left handed course with a bend, and is up hill for most of the way.
The Low stalls have the inside rail, but wins are spread across most stalls, on
all types of going.
There is an obvious spread of results in races of 18 runners.
On good or better going :-
The Top half of the draw has been favoured by 31 wins against 24.
In races of 8 - 16 runners, stalls 1-
6 won 11 of 25 races 44%.
In races of 8 - 16 runners, the Top 6 stalls won 14 of 25 races 56%.
Those are very poor percentages for 6 stalls.
There is no recommendation.
On
good/good to soft in places or softer going,
the Bottom half of the draw won 3 of 12 races.
The wins from High stalls go against long held beliefs
that a low draw advantage should exist in these races.
Historically, there has never been a reliable Low draw advantage in these races..
Results here are inconsistent, and are reflected in the weak pattern.
During 2006, there was 1 win from stalls 1-6, and 3 wins from the Top 6
stalls, on all types of going.
In 2005 there were 3 wins from stalls 1-6, and 3 wins from the Top 6 stalls.
2006 results :- 10-11, 13-15,
5-16, 12-17, 10-18,
11-18, 11-18
2005 results :- 5-13, 7-15,
14-15, 13-17, 15-17, 2-18,
4-18
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