Horse racing draw advantage bias PONTEFRACT 5F
Stalls usually positioned LOW ( Centre are shown C )

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WINNING STALL NUMBER

 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
No

of

R

U

N

E

R

S

8           1 1  
9 11               1
10                 1  
11                   1 1
12     1 1     1           
13 1 1 1   1     1       1  
14                 1     11      
15               1           1 1  
16 1       1               1      
17       1             1 1 1   11 1 1
18 1 11 11 11 111 11 11 1   C111 1111 11 1 11 1 1   111
19                                      
20                                        
21                                          
22                                            
5 3 3 3 5 3

<--Good or better -->

3 2 4 5 4 4
24 31

Copyright 2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.

Newspaper draw advantage advice for this course is extremely poor.
Most newspapers mention a Low draw advantage, and some suggest "Low numbers best on soft going".
That is not what has been happening in these races, or the 6F races during the last 10 years.
This is a left handed course with a bend, and is up hill for most of the way.
The Low stalls have the inside rail, but wins are spread across most stalls, on all types of going.

There is an obvious spread of results in races of 18 runners.
On good or better going :-
The Top half of the draw has been favoured by 31 wins against 24.
In races of 8 - 16 runners, stalls 1- 6         won 11  of 25 races 44%.
In races of 8 - 16 runners, the Top 6 stalls won 14 of 25 races 56%.
Those are very poor percentages for 6 stalls.
There is no recommendation.

On good/good to soft in places or softer going, the Bottom half of the draw won 3 of 12 races.

The wins from High stalls go against long held beliefs that a low draw advantage should exist in these races.
Historically, there has never been a reliable Low draw advantage in these races..
Results here are inconsistent, and are reflected in the weak pattern.
During 2006, there was 1 win from stalls 1-6, and 3 wins from the Top 6 stalls, on all types of going.
In 2005 there were 3 wins from stalls 1-6, and 3 wins from the Top 6 stalls.

2006 results :- 10-11, 13-15, 5-16, 12-17, 10-18, 11-18, 11-18

2005 results :-  5-13, 7-15, 14-15, 13-17, 15-17, 2-18, 4-18