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Horse racing draw advantage bias
PONTEFRACT 6F
Stalls usually positioned LOW ( Centre
and High are shown C and H )
Link
to course and distance menu
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
| No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
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1 |
11 |
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1 |
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11 |
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| 9 |
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11 |
11 |
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11 |
111 |
1 |
1 |
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| 10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
111 |
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1 |
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| 11 |
11 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
111 |
1 |
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1 |
11 |
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| 12 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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111 |
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| 13 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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11 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 14 |
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1 |
1 |
111 |
1 |
1 |
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11 |
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| 15 |
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1 |
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1 |
11 |
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1 |
111 |
1 |
11 |
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111 |
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| 16 |
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11 |
1 |
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| 17 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
11 |
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1 |
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C |
1 |
1 |
111 |
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1 |
1 |
11 |
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| 18 |
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11 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
11111 |
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11 |
1 |
11 |
H1 |
11 |
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1 |
111 |
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| 19 |
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| 21 |
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4 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
<--Good or better --> |
10 |
12 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
13 |
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35 |
52 |
Copyright © 2005
[H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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This a very interesting pattern, when you
consider the shape of the course.
This is a left handed course with a bend, and is up hill for most of the way.
Therefore, the Low stalls are closest to the inside rail.
On good or better going :-
The Top 6 stalls won 47 of 88 races 53 %.
Stalls 1 - 6 won 38 of 88 races
43 %.
The wins from
High stalls go against long held beliefs
that a Low draw advantage should exist in these races.
Historically, there has not been a reliable Low draw advantage in these races..
Results here are inconsistent, and are reflected in the weak pattern.
The following pattern was described in 2005 and
2006 :-
Races with less runners were won from Low stalls, but with more runners, most wins came from the Top 1/2 of the draw.
The wins from High stalls may be caused by traffic problems in larger
fields, but that's only a guess.
On good or better going in races of 8 - 12 runners, stalls 1 - 6 won 26 of 38 races
68 %.
The Top 6 stalls won 20 of 38 races.
On good or better going in races of 13 - 18 runners, the Top 6 stalls won 27 of
50 races 54 %.
On good or better going in races of 13 - 18 runners, only 13 of 50 races were won from the Bottom 1/2 of the draw.
Amazingly, during 2005 on good or better going, 5
of the 8 results followed this Low and High, change-over pattern.
In 2006, 6 of 8 races followed that pattern
There is no recommendation.
On good/good to soft in
places or softer going, results are spread across all
stalls throughout this chart.
2006 results :- 2-9,
6-9, 3-10, 2-11, 6-11, 7-11, 8-11,
2-12, 12-12,
12-15, 13-15, 15-15, 10-18
2005 results :-
8-9, 6-10, 4-11,
1-12, 5-12, 12-13,
7-14, 10-14,
14-14 (only 9 ran),
11-15, 3-17,
7-17, 4-18
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