Horse racing draw advantage bias race results Ripon 1m

Horse racing draw advantage bias RIPON 1m
Stalls usually positioned HIGH

Alterations were carried out on the bend towards the end of the 2004 flat season.
2 charts are shown below, showing results before and after these alterations took place.

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WINNING STALL NUMBER
		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
No of R U N E R S	8			1
	9	1		1	1		1								2005+ 2006 results only. After bend alterations.
	10				1		1			1	1
	11							11
	12			1	1					1	1
	13													1
	14
	15	1
	16												1
	17
	18																	1	1
	19
	20
		0	0	2	0	0	1	<--Good or better -->								1	1	1	1	2	2
		2										7

There is a long sweeping 180 degree right hand bend shortly after the start in these races, which should in theory, favour horses drawn High, close to the inside rail.
You may see draw advantage advice for this course and distance recommending "High numbers best on round course", or words to that effect.
That advice may be influenced by the shape of the course, but results at the winning post show that in the long term, any advantage here has only been very marginal.

On good or better going, the Top half of the draw has been favoured by 7 wins against 2.
On good or better going, the Top 6 stalls won 8 of 9 races, with the other winner being drawn 3 of 9 runners in the Top 7th stall.
That looks very encouraging so far, but the distance of 1m is a very long way for a draw advantage to prove reliable in the long term.
The alterations to the bend may have made some difference, but results of the previous 8 seasons didn't produce a draw advantage of any great significance.
Very strong patterns of results in races beyond 6F are almost as rare as unicorn droppings, so it would be best to wait for more results to confirm this short term trend.
On good/good to soft in places or softer going, results are spread across a wide range of stall numbers.
There is no recommendation.

2006 results :- 1-9, 3-9, 6-9, 6-10, 9-10, 7-11, 3-12, 9-12, 10-12, 12-16, 18-19

Draw advantage bias RIPON 1m
Stalls usually positioned HIGH

WINNING STALL NUMBER
		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
No of R U N E R S	8			11	1	11	11
	9			1	11		1	11							8 seasons 1997 - 2004 Before bend alterations.
	10	1	11		1	1			11	11	1
	11	1	1	11		1	1	11			1	11
	12				1					1	1	1	1
	13		11		1		11		111		111			1
	14		1		1		1	1				1	1	1
	15	1	1	1					1					1	111
	16		1											11
	17		1											1				1
	18	1				1		1					1		1			1
	19	1			1			1
	20		1					1		1	11	1		1		11	1	111	11	111	111
		5	6	2	7	3	4	<--Good or better -->								7	4	10	8	10	7
		26										45

On good or better going, the Bottom half, Top half split favoured the Top half of the draw by 45 wins against 26, almost 2 to 1.
First impressions from that may be that here we have a strong draw advantage, but a closer look shows 11 wins from the Top 6 stalls in races of 20 runners.
Those results cause some distortion.

Without those results :-
On good or better going in races of 8 to 19 runners, the Top half of the draw was favoured by 32 wins against 25 from the Bottom half - a difference of only 7 races.
Overall, on good or better going, the Top 6 stalls won 46 of 73 races 63%.
Stalls 1 to 6 won 27 races.
2 winners were drawn dead centre.
63 % looks very promising, but in races of 8 to 19 runners, the Top 6 stalls
won 35 of 59 races 59%, a significantly low percentage for 6 stalls.
There is nothing to recommend here on any type of going.
In races of 16 to 19 runners, stalls 1 - 7 won 8 of 13 races, the opposite of the results of races with 20 runners. Not a good sign.