Horse racing draw advantage bias.
Sandown 5F
3 Charts
Stalls
positioned HIGH and Centre. (See
Stalls LOW on chart below).
Link
to course and distance menu Down
to False Rail analysis
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
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1 |
111 |
111 |
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9 |
1 |
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1 |
1C |
11 |
1 |
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10 |
111 |
1111 |
11 |
11 |
1 |
111 |
11 |
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1111 |
11 |
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Stalls
positioned HIGH
1997 - 2006 |
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11 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
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1 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
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12 |
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1 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
11 |
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111 |
11 |
1 |
111111 |
11 |
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13 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
11 |
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111 |
11 |
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14 |
1 |
11 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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11 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
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15 |
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1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
11 |
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1 |
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16 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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17 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
11 |
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18 |
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1 |
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19 |
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1 |
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20 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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21 |
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22 |
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7 |
9 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
7 |
<--Good or better --> |
6 |
11 |
10 |
4 |
18 |
7 |
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29 |
53 |
Copyright © 2005 [H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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A theory keeps surfacing concerning soft ground
in these races.
The theory is that when the ground is on the soft side of good and the stalls
are placed on the High side of the course (the far side), High numbers are
favoured.
The theory is :- the softer the ground, the greater the advantage.
Historically, results in these races have never justified such advice.
On going described as good/good to soft in places or
softer :-
The Top 6 stalls won 22 of 42 races
Stalls 1 - 6 won 19 of 42 races.
The Top 1/2, Bottom 1/2 split is Top half 21 wins, Bottom half 20 wins.
One other winner drawn 9 of 17 was dead centre.
By far the most reliable and consistent pattern here is produced by results on
good or better going.
Looking at the chart, it is obvious that in races of 8 - 10 runners, results are
spread across most stalls.
In races of 11-14 runners the
Top 6 stalls won 32 of 46 races 69%.
In races
with 15 or more runners the Top 6 stalls won 9 of 14 races 64%.
Combining the two :-
Good or better going, stalls positioned High, 11 or more runners, the Top 6 stalls won 41 of
60 races 68 %.
On good or better going in 2006, the Top 6 stalls won 10 of 14 races, and 8
of 11 races under those conditions.
This course and distance was relegated to the Stalls To Follow B
list for 2006, due to the use of a false rail, introduced during 2005.
A false rail has been used in these races during 2005 & 2006 to narrow the
course, but after a short analysis of 2005 and 2006 results, it appears that so
far, the false rail is not having an adverse affect on this draw advantage.
Down to False Rail analysis
2006 results :- 2-10, 5-10, 6-10,
1-11, 9-11, 9-11, 11-12, 11-12, 4-13, 9-13, 12-13, 12-13, 12-13, 13-13,
2-14, 11-15, 9-17
SANDOWN
5F
Stalls
positioned LOW See chart above
for High positioning
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
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1 |
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9 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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10 |
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1 |
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Stalls
positioned LOW |
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11 |
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111 |
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12 |
1 |
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1 |
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13 |
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1 |
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1 |
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14 |
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1 |
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15 |
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16 |
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17 |
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18 |
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20 |
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21 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
<--Good or better --> |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
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5 |
4 |
Copyright © 2005 [H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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All races of 15 or more runners over this course and
distance during the last 9 seasons have had the stalls positioned High.
There are not enough results here with stalls Low from which to draw any reliable conclusions,
BUT :-
On good or better going, stalls 1 to 6 won 8 of 9 races 88%.
Note that all those races had less than 13 runners.
On good/good to soft in
places, or softer going, the Top 7 stalls won 4 of 5 races.
The Top 7 stalls are the cells highlighted in blue, plus the next cell to the
left in white.
The last time the stalls were positioned LOW in these races was July 3rd 1999.
Sandown 5F false rail
Results 2005 and 2006 to July 8th
Stalls positioned HIGH
The running rail for the
meetings July 1st/2nd, 20th/21st, and 27th 2005 was moved in by approximately 3 yards on the High side of the
5F course.
The official explanation for this was that it was done "to provide fresher
ground".
Using the Racing Post's Video Form facility, I looked at past
races to see when false rail was used.
These were the results of races for older horses 2005 and 2006 to July 8th.
Videos weren't available for 2004, and now can only be viewed by subscription.
Y = False rail in use, N = Not in use.
As usual, red results indicate going good/good
to soft in places.
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
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y |
y |
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n |
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9 |
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n |
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3yr olds and older
2005 - July 8th 2006 |
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10 |
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ny |
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y |
y |
y |
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11 |
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12 |
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n |
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yy |
nn |
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13 |
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y |
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y |
n |
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14 |
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n |
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y |
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15 |
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n |
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n |
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16 |
y |
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17 |
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n |
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18 |
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19 |
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20 |
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1 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
<--Good or better --> |
2 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
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7
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8
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Copyright © 2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
|
The Bottom half, Top half split
is almost even, 7 wins against 8, with one other winner drawn dead centre (5 of
9).
On good or better going, the Top 6 stalls won 11 of 16 races 69%.
With a false rail, the Top 6 stalls won 7 of 10 races 70%.
Without a false rail, the Top 6 won 4 of 6 races 66%.
On good or better going in races of 11 or more runners, the Top 6 stalls won
7 of 10 races 70% (with or without a false rail).
On going softer
than good, there were 3 wins
from stalls 1 to 4 and 4 wins from the Top 5 stalls.
Initially, in 2005 stalls 1 to 6
won 4 of 4 races with the false rail in use, results 2-8, 3-8, 6-10,1-16
on the chart above.
Due to those results, I relegated this course and distance from the Stalls To
Follow list for 2006, and awaited further races.
After that initial scare, the false rail appeared to have negligible effect from a draw advantage point
of view.
These are the 2006 results since the analysis above was uploaded during 2006.
These results are not on the chart, and may or may not have had a false rail in
use :-
Jul 26 Good-firm/firm |
6 - 10 25/1 ( 5th Top
stall) |
Jul 27 Good-firm/firm |
11 - 11 4/1 |
Aug 16 Good-firm |
12 - 13 11/1 |
Aug 17 Good-firm/firm |
9 - 11 11/2 |
Aug 25 Good/good-firm |
1 - 11 |
Aug 26 Good |
4 - 13 |
Sept 8 Good-firm/firm |
2 - 14 |
Sept 13
Good/good-soft |
9 - 17 |
2005 results :-
2-8, 3-8, 8-8, 5-9, 2-10,
4-10, 6-10, 6-12, 11-12,
12-12, 12-12, 13-14, 11-14, 3-15,
1-16, 2-17
2006 to July 8th
:- 2-10, 5-10, 11-12, 9-13, 12-13, 13-13,
11-15
Underlined results were races with a false running rail, 3 yards in from
the normal High rail.
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