Horse racing draw advantage bias
THIRSK 6F
Stalls usually positioned
HIGH ( Low are shown L )
Link
to course and distance menu
Race Of The Week
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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111 |
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9 |
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12 |
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13 |
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11L |
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11 |
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F |
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11 |
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21 |
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23 |
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11 |
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111 |
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7 |
<--Good or better --> |
4 |
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14 |
8 |
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31 |
62 |
Copyright © 2003 [Howard
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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Result F ( 11 of 20 runners
) had a flag start.
Splits occur here quite often, as jockeys
search for better going towards the far (Low) rail, usually in races of 13
runners or more, but not all those races split.
On good or better going, there are spreads of results in races of 15, 16, and 17 runners, and again with 20 and 24 runners.
Those spreads could easily be caused by splitting of the runners, as well as
traffic problems in larger fields, and different going conditions being
encountered across the course.
All pretty obvious stuff.
To make best use of the draw advantage here in 5F and 6F races, we need to
concentrate on races that are not likely to split.
If we wait for races with smaller fields, most of those races will not split.
This will enable our well drawn horses in the Top few stalls to take full
advantage of the faster ground towards the High rail.
On good or better going the Top 6 stalls won
54 of 93 races 58%.
That is a low percentage for 6 stalls.
Stalls High.
On good or better going In races of 8 - 16 runners,
the Top 6 stalls won 36 of 48 races 75 %.
Above 16 runners, winners spread to lower stalls.
On good,
good to soft in places or softer going
the Top 6 stalls won 13 of 26 races.
The Bottom 6 stalls won 11 of 26 races 42%.
2006 results :- 3-10,
10-10, 7-11, 7-11, 10-13, 2-14, 13-14, 10-17,
14-17, 11-19, 6-20, 19-20
2005 results :- 6-9, 8-10,
11-12, 12-13,
11-14, 7-15, 14-16,
6-17, 10-17,
13-17, 16-18,
3- 19, 5-20, 3-20, 10-20
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