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Horse racing draw advantage bias.
There are only 7 seasons results
shown here.
The reason for showing only 7 years
results is that until the distance of these races was increased by 26 yards to
7F 26yds in 2000, the pattern showed much less in the way of an advantage
during the 3 years 1997 - 1999.
Why the addition of only 26 yards should cause a high percentage of races to be won from
stalls 1 to 6 is a mystery, if indeed that is the reason for this current trend.
Whatever the cause, the 2005 season proved this pattern to some extent.
On all types of going, 8 of 10 races were won from stalls 1 to 4.
One result 3 of 8, had only 7 runners.
Please bear in mind that 7F is a long distance in draw advantage terms,
over which to expect results to be consistent and reliable.
Usually, as distance increases, draw advantages become less effective.
All this could of course be just coincidence.
It will be interesting to see what happens over the next 2 or 3 seasons.
Horse racing draw advantage bias.
WARWICK 7F
26yds
Stalls usually positioned LOW
Link
to course and distance menu
Race Of The Week
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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1 |
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8 |
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11 |
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16 |
17 |
18 |
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20 |
21 |
22 |
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of
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8 |
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11 |
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3yr olds
and older
7 seasons results
2000 - 2006 |
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| 10 |
11 |
11 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 11 |
1 |
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1 |
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| 12 |
11 |
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| 13 |
1 |
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1 |
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| 14 |
11 |
111 |
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11 |
11 |
111 |
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11 |
11 |
11 |
1 |
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| 15 |
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11 |
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| 16 |
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1 |
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11 |
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| 17 |
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1 |
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11 |
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1 |
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| 20 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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8 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
<--Good or better --> |
5 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
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27 |
16 |
Copyright © 2005
[H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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On good or better going, the Bottom
half, Top half split shown at the bottom of the chart favours the Bottom half of
the draw by 27 wins to 16.
3 other winners were drawn dead centre.
In 2006, the Top half of the draw won 8 of 12 races.
The Bottom half won 3 races, and 1 other winner was dead centre.
On good or better going, stalls 1 to 6 won 29 of 46 races 63%.
On good or better
going in races of 8 -
13 runners,
stalls 1 - 6 won 21 of 25 races 84%.
In 2006, stalls 1 to 6 won 5 of 7 races under those conditions.
Above 13 runners, results spread away from the Bottom 6 stalls.
It could be argued that there are
spreads of results in races of 8, 9, and possibly 13 runners, which leaves us
with a cluster of wins from stalls 1 to 6 in races of 10 to 12 runners, a very
narrow section of this chart.
7F is a long distance for results to prove reliable in the long term, and with
so few runners, wins from Low stalls could easily be coincidence.
Note again that the Top half of the draw won 8 of 12 races in 2006.
In races of 8 to 13 runners, the Top half won 5 of 7 races, but 5 of those
winners started from stalls 1 to 6.
On good/good to soft
in places or softer going,
there appeared to be the start of a similar pattern, but 2 winners drawn 7-9 and
10-11 in 2006 may be adding to a spread of wins in the long term.
Overall, stalls 1 - 6 won 13 of 20 races 65%.
In races of 17 or more runners, results spread to higher stalls.
The advice remains unaltered from previous seasons :-
As a general rule, results on this
type of going often prove to be unreliable.
There is no recommendation on this type of going.
2006 results
:- 5-8, 5-8, 7-8, 1-9, 5-9, 7-9, 1-10,
10-11, 11-13,
5-14, 5-14, 6-14,
7-14, 10-14, 12-14, 12-14, 13-14
2005 results :- 3-8, 4-8, 4-9, 9-9,
1-11,
1-14, 1-14, 2-14, 2-14, 11-14
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