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Horse racing draw advantage bias
WINDSOR 1m
Stalls usually positioned HIGH
Link
to course and distance menu
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WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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8 |
111 |
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1 |
11 |
11 |
1111 |
1 |
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| 9 |
111 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
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| 10 |
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111 |
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11 |
11111 |
11111 |
11 |
11111 |
1 |
11 |
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| 11 |
1 |
11 |
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111 |
1 |
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11 |
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11 |
111 |
1 |
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| 12 |
11 |
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11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
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1 |
11 |
1 |
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| 13 |
11 |
1 |
111 |
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1 |
11 |
11 |
1 |
11 |
111 |
11 |
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1 |
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| 14 |
11 |
11111 |
11 |
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111 |
11 |
1111 |
1111 |
11 |
111111 |
111 |
1111111 |
1111 |
1 |
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| 15 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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| 16 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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1 |
11 |
1 |
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11 |
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1 |
1 |
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| 17 |
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1 |
1 |
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1 |
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1 |
11 |
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1 |
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| 18 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
111 |
1111 |
11111 |
1 |
111 |
1111 |
911 |
6111 |
411 |
51 |
611 |
6 |
1111 |
11111 |
111 |
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| 19 |
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| 20 |
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8 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
14 |
18 |
<--Good or better --> |
16 |
21 |
15 |
22 |
15 |
10 |
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68
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116
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Copyright © 2005 [H Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
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In races of 18 runners, numbers have been substituted in some cases to keep the
chart tidy.
There are a lot of results here,
probably because there are no 7F races at Windsor.
During 2006, the max field size was 14.
The Windsor course is shaped roughly like a figure of 8.
These races cover one of the loops, and turn right handed almost 3 quarters of
turn shortly after the start.
With High stalls on the inside, we would expect High numbers to be favoured, and
that is what has been happening to some extent.
Although High numbers have been favoured, the pattern is relatively weak when
compared to sprint distances at other courses.
On good or better going, The
Bottom half, Top half split favours the Top half by 116 wins against 68.
2 other winners were drawn dead centre.
On good or better going, the Top 6 stalls won 99 of 186 races 53%, a low
percentage for 6 stalls.
A good advantage would show 65% or more winners
for 6 horses.
Stalls 1 to 6 won 66 of 186 races 35%.
The best that can be said of this
course and distance is that the Top half of the draw has been favoured, but wins
from the Top half have been boosted by wins in maximum fields of 18 runners..
In races of 18 runners,
the Top half of the draw won 45 of 60 races 66%.
In maximum fields, the Top half
has dominated, but with less runners, horses drawn
in lower stalls have not been at such a disadvantage.
In theory, as field sizes grow, there could be more traffic problems, and
horses drawn wide in Low numbered stalls are not able to overcome the
disadvantage of being draw away from the inside "bend rail".
All pretty obvious stuff really, but only a guess.
On good or better going in 2005, the Top half of the draw won 12 of 19 races.
On good or better going in 2006, the Top half of the draw won 8 races, the
Bottom half won 10
This observation remains
unaltered from 2006 :-
"I don't want to be negative, but
with such low percentages, and the distance of 1 mile, future wins from the Top
half could easily come in bunches, and cause costly losing sequences.
From a draw advantage point of view, there are far better opportunities
elsewhere."
There is no recommendation.
On good/good
to soft in places or softer
going, wins are spread across most stalls.
2006 results :- 1-8,
4-8, 2-10, 7-10, 8-10, 2-11,
2-11, 7-11, 5-12, 1-13,
11-13, 11-13, 13-13,
1-14, 2-14, 2-14, 2-14,
3-14, 5-14, 5-14, 6-14, 7-14, 8-14, 8-14,
10-14, 10-14, 11-14,
12-14, 12-14
2005 results :- 6-9,
9-9, 5-10, 4-11, 8-11, 9-11, 9-11, 10-11, 10-11, 11-12,
3-13,
2-14, 2-14, 3-14, 6-14,
7-14, 10-14, 10-14, 11-14,
12-14,
12-14, 13-14, 13-14, 6-18,
7-18, 8-18, 9-18,
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