News of latest activityPrevious blog entriesMy apprenticeship  

Archive of activity


Every gold or coal mine has its slag heap for all the rubbish.
This web page contains my old blog postings and similar rubbish.
It's all mine, mine, mine.

On this web page
Football    Correct Score.  Hedge several bets
Football.   Live demo of bet and lay a treble
Horses     Win & Place or Each Way ?
A Payout  From the tax office.
Horses     Trade across 2 horse mkts
E.U Vote  In or Out ?
Horses ?  Loss recovery staking
Multiples  Bet or Lay a Trixie
Multiples  Lay accumulator videos
Football.  Lay the Draw exit strategy
Ratings versus tips.
Bookies.  Bookies watch customer activity ?.
Bookies.  Bookies free bets dry up
T.V. Racing.  Annoying & un-necessary words
Horses.        Rolling lays.
Horses.        What helps a horse to win ?
Hoirses.      Cheltenham winning trainers.
Multiples.    Lay a double.
Multiples.    Lay a Yankee.
Betfair.       Odds and increments to avoid ?.
Research.   Analyse your results.
Football.     A successful tip - - Lay of the day.
Bookie refunds.  Lay an accumulator refund.
Free sheet.  Compare exchange commissions.
Betdaq.       Trading Betdaq odds.

My websites.
Formulas and maths of trading
Football trading
Strategies for horse racing and football trading
A very accurate analysis of U.K.  horse racing draw advantages.

24th October 2016.  New spreadsheet for trading Correct Score using several bets per selection.
I have sheets for placing single bets to Dutch & Hedge 2 Betfair markets and show the effect of commission across the 2 markets.
In the past, I have messed about with that to accommodate more than one bet per score or other selection, but the sheet always seemed to get a bit messy.
I hope I have put a tidy sheet together this time.
My new sheet can accommodate single bets or more than one bet.
Enter single odds to see Dutching bet stakes, or, use another part of the sheet if you prefer D.I.Y. - - "Do It Yourself" staking . . . Lol.
You can even combine Dutched stakes with D.I.Y stakes . . . no problem.

For example, you might start a trade with Dutched stakes, and then chuck in a few D.I.Y stakes off the top of your head.
I put this new sheet on my football web site today, with a video to describe the sheet and what it can do.

This sheet can accommodate any number of bets.
Input odds and stakes info for your bets, and the sheet combines those to show combined bet odds.
We can now see what odds we need to lay at for a successful bet and lay Hedge of any score, or anything else we have bet such as
Under / Over Goals, etc. in another market.
If you have seen my other sheets on that web page for betting single Dutched bets and laying to equalize, you will see that this new sheet uses the same layout.

I am hoping that this sheet might help football traders to keep track of the progress of their In Play trading.
We all watch plenty of footy trading videos, and no-doubt you get just as lost as I do whilst watching some of those.
Personally, I like to be able to keep track of what is going on in videos and in my trades, so if this sheet helps me, maybe it might help someone else as well.
As always, good luck with your trades, . . . and keep 'em nice & tidy . . Lol,

21st October 2016.  Live trade video of Bet a treble, and lay it in Betfair.
I put a live trade on a video last night to demonstrate how to juggle the lay stakes to balance the trade during the game.
View my efforts here via this link.
I have added that to the other accumulator videos on my "Multiples" web page.

My profit from that trade was very small, but the video demonstrates several aspects of what to expect from betting and laying an accumulator with games all kicking off at the same time.

  • We don't always need to lay every team.
  • We can also get away with laying just 2 of the 3 teams.
  • If goals go in our favour, we can show a profit if we hit all winners, or any combination of losers.

I hope those are all demonstrated clearly in the video.
Good luck with laying your accumulators if you have a bash at that,

18th October 2016.   Odds movements posts removed.
If you have visited my Blog recently, you will have seen a few posts about tracking the odds in Betfair.
I have decided to abandon that.
What I was doing worked ok in small markets such as mid week horse racing or a football match which didn't involve massive liquidity in the markets.
That method wasn't as reliable if there were large amounts of cash in the market such as big races in horse races, or big football matches.
Yesterday for instance, there were massive amounts of cash being traded in Match Odds of the Liverpool - Man Utd game.
Also, it was difficult to keep up with updating the spreadsheet towards kick-off or Race Time.
It's back to the drawing board with that one,
30th September 2016.  Bet Win and Bet Place markets . . . . . or bet Each Way . . . . Which pays best ?
Today, I put a spreadsheet on my Combine Horse Racing Markets web page for betting in both Win & Place markets in Betfair.
That may not sound too thrilling, but the odds in Betfair's Each Way market do not always keep in step with the odds in Win & Place.

Bet an equivalent market in a football match, and I doubt that you will get a better deal in an equivalent market to cover the same bet.
For example, if we bet 0-0, 1-0 & 0-1 in Correct Score, the odds available for Under 1.5 Goals will be near enough the same.

The Each Way market odds in Betfair don't always keep in step with Win & Place odds for all runners.
I expect that the Betfair Each Way odds are the mid point between bet and lay odds of the combined Win & Place markets.
Look at those early - - well before Race Time when there are gaps between bet an lay odds in those 2 markets, and there may be a substantial difference between the returns from 2 separate bets in Win & Place markets, and a bet in the Each Way market.
A slight juggling of the stakes may be required, BUT  . . . . if we compare the potential winnings from a Win bet plus a Place bet with an Each Way bet, there can be quite a significant difference between the winnings on offer for some, but not all horses.
Take a look at an interesting video via this link.
For a BIGGER VIEW of the video, click the small icon bottom right with 4 square corners.
An introductory video plus that video are on
my Combine Horse Markets web page along with a brief write-up.

Now that summer is drawing to a close, I hope to get on with putting more spreadsheets up on that web page for combining 2 or more other Betfair horse racing markets.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.

10th May 2016.  It's that time of year again.
My change of tax code for the tax year 2016 / 2017 arrived yesterday, so I will be paying less tax from now on.
No sign yet of a refund for last year, so fingers crossed for a result sometime . . . . soon I hope.

The going at UK racecourses is drying out fast, so now may be a good time to consider draw advantages if the going description is good or better.
Avoid 2 year old races if considering the Draw, as those races are much less predictable from a draw advantage point of view.
It is best to concentrate on races for horses aged 3 years and older.
My old Draw Advantage info is still available if you are interested.   Follow this link for all UK turf course and distances.
Just be careful of the re-numbering of the stalls on right handed courses such as Beverley and Sandown.

That info is quite old now, but unless there has been an alteration to a course, or drainage work carried out during the last few years, the very strong draw advantages described for some courses will still be ok.
I use that information for selecting badly drawn horses to lay, mostly at double figure odds.
I see no point in laying something that is expected to run well.
When looking for a horse to lay, I don't simply choose the worst drawn horse.
I look at the worst drawn half dozen or so and pick one out from those.
An inexperienced rider is a plus for me.
I try to avoid big fashionable stables and top jockeys.
Give me a badly drawn horse from a small yard with an apprentice up and I'll go for that if the odds are below about 25.0.
I like to wait for the right opportunity so I only lay occasionally.
So far, in my current laying sequence, including Cheltenham, I've layed only 22 horses. . . . . All have lost.  Average odds 17.62.

Over the jumps, I look to lay horses from small yards that are running in big races against plenty of runners from the big stables.
In my opinion, those are up against stiff opposition. . . . . . The big yards target the big prize money, especially in races on a Saturday.
Small yards don't have much success in those races.  That's what works for me.

The liabilities of my lays at double figure odds may not suit everyone, but if you can get a few successful lays under your belt, hitting a winner with a lay isn't as painful as you might expect.
I see myself as a layer rather than a bettor.
Bet, and we will probably hit plenty of losers with the occasional winner.
Lay, and we hit plenty of successful lays with the occasional unsuccessful lay.
It's all pretty much the same in the long run.
To succeed, both need a decent selection method.
As always, good luck with your trades,

24th April 2016.   A 212 nailed-on certainty.
This is nothing to do with gambling, but every bit helps, whatever the source.
The info I have is that application for this may only be available on-line.

Apply for the married persons allowance and you can get 212 back from the Inland Revenue.
I think a Civil Partnership may be ok as well, so you may not need to be married..
If either you or your partner have more than 11K of income and the other doesn't pay tax, one can let let the other have a tax allowance on their behalf.
Here is the Inland Revenue link for sign-up :-

Not only that, you can claim a refund for last year, the 2015 - 2016 tax year.
Just fill in the simple details on-line and the tax office will offer to send you a 212 cheque for last year, and allow you 212 extra off your tax this coming year, and subsequent years.
That looks good to me.
My wife and I filled in her application earlier this week in about 5 minutes, and later that day we received an e-mail confirming a successful application.
We are now looking forward to seeing our postman with a brown envelope . . . Lol.
Good luck with that if you qualify for it,

5th April 2016.   Trade across 2 Betfair horse racing markets.
We are probably all pretty familiar with betting and laying in more than one football market, but I expect that most Betfair traders won't have traded horses across 2 markets.
Mostly, we just hedge or Dutch one horse racing market.

I may have mentioned this in a previous post, but I have a range of strategies for trading across 2 horse racing markets in Betfair, with spreadsheets to show the staking.
I have now decided to put these on a web page.

I made a start on that today, with a video for betting and laying 2 horse racing Place markets.
That is bet in the normal place market, and lay in the other place market that Betfair now provide, that pays out to an extra place.
So, if there are 10 runners in our race for example, the strategy is to bet in the place market that pays out on 3 places, and lay in the place market that pays out on 4 places.
If we do that, our bet odds will be bigger than our lay odds.
Stake correctly, and we can have profit from every bet and lay, except a bet and lay that hits the 4th place horse . . . the "Extra" runner paid out in the market in which we place our lays.
We can bet and lay more than one runner, for payout on only that one runner if we are unlucky and hit a 4th placed runner with one of our bet and lay trades..

Follow this link to see a video description of the strategy and the spreadsheet.

I recorded a couple of live trades this afternoon for a 2nd video but I cocked up the recording..
The trades went ok  - - - - I didn't hit a 4th placed horse, but I didn't hit my record button in the middle, so that cocked up the recording.
The beginning and end are ok, but the middle bit is missing.
I'll have to try again

Anyway, there you have a taster in that video.
If you are interested in trading horses with a bit of imaginative staking, these strategies may be of interest to you.
Note that these trades are just the same as any other trade in Betfair :-
Things may look ok with some potential for profit, but there will always be one outcome that will cause a red trade.
That scenario is exactly the same if we trade football or anything else in Betfair.
A goal at the "wrong" time, no goal, or not enough goals in a football trade can cause big problems.

The problem with these 2 market horse racing strategies is the finishing position of our horse, win, 2nd, 4th, 5th, placed, or lost.
One of those will always cock up our trade.
if you have a selection process that sorts those out a bit, we all want to hear from you . . . . Lol.
A new web page will eventually appear on my strategies web site with a selection of these 2 market horse racing strategies.
I'll be posting on here with updates about progress.

As always, good luck with your trades,

20th February 2015.   23rd June . . . E.U. vote
I have thought long and hard about putting anything in here about the In / Out E.U. vote on June 23rd.
The In/Out Betfair market has favoured a "Stay In" outcome since I first looked at it before Christmas, and I still cannot believe that a "Stay In" result is still an odds -on favourite.

I made a 13 profit from a bookie's free bet refund offer on Saturday, so this afternoon I bet a tenner of that profit on the "Out" result at odds of 2.9. . . . thinking they were very good odds.
Unbelievably, the "In favour of leaving" odds this evening are now bigger at Bet 3.05, Lay 3.1.

This quote from the front page of today's Daily Mail "The odds on Britain voting to quit the Brussels Club instantly tumbling to 2/1" after Boris Johnson decided to vote "Out" show a complete lack of betting knowledge in the Daily Mail editorial department.
That bit of text may suggest to anyone who doesn't have any basic betting knowledge that the odds for an "Out" vote have tumbled to favouritism.
As you and I know, for a 2 horse race such as "In" or "Out", surely odds of 3.0 (2/1) for one outcome, must mean that the odds for the other outcome "Leave" are a very short odds favourite at way below evens.

Current Betfair odds are "Stay in the EU", Bet 1.47, lay 1.48, and "Leave the EU" Bet 3.05, Lay 3.1.
I don't see much of an instant tumble there towards favouritism in the Leave odds.
I apologise for this post looking like a tipping service, but my tenner is on the outsider here. . . . "Out"

I have yet to hear just one good reason for me to vote "Stay In".
Just watch the news and take note.
Add together the good things that you see and hear concerning the E.U. and add together the negative points.
Personally, I'm struggling to come up with a good point that has come out of the E.U. in living memory, let alone recently.
All looks very negative indeed to me.
I'm out of there on June 23rd,

8th January 2016.  Loss recovery.
I had 2 e-mail enquiries last week asking if I had a spreadsheet for recovering losses.
I had a sheet for that, but it was an aggressive staking method that looked to recover the loss when we hit the next winner.
Hit losers, and the stakes could grow quickly if we bet using short odds, until recovering all losses with the next winner.

Both of my e-mail enquirers were Dutching, so the odds of their combined bets odds were likely to be rather short.
Both asked for a staking plan that spread the recovery over several races, so I expanded my sheet to show a lower profit target that would recover a loss over any number of winners that we input.
Put that new lower profit target into the sheet, and the loss will be recovered more slowly.
Once the loss is recovered, the sheet carries on staking to hit the profit target that was last entered into the sheet.

If we bet to recover a loss, we may hit more losers whilst we are doing that.
If we set the sheet to recover a loss over say, 4 winning bets, that is what it will do if the next 4 bets are all winners.
If we hit more losers during the loss recovery staking, the original loss and any subsequent losses will be recovered, but it will take more races.
Once the loss is recovered, the sheet carries on aiming for the last profit target that was set in the sheet.

The spreadsheet is available on my Staking Plans web page with a video to demonstrate the sheet.
As both of my
e-mail enquirers were Dutching, they would need to use a single input of the odds to use this sheet.
I may put a video together to demonstrate how to tackle that using a Combined Odds spreadsheet.
That would then be a 2nd video to go with the Loss Recovery sheet.
I have included a Combined Odds sheet in the Loss Recovery file.
As always, good luck with your trades,

30th December 2015.  Bet or Lay a Trixie . . . 3 doubles & a treble.
A few months back, a spreadsheet customer asked me for a sheet for betting and laying Trixies.
Things got a bit more complicated than that, but the 2 basic sheets look ok so I have put them up on
my Multiples web page.

I have put both the betting sheet and the laying sheet in the same file.
I may tweak the video later as the commentary is perhaps a bit duff towards the end.
My videos tend to be informative (I hope) rather than slick.
It isn't easy putting a decent video together. . . . There are always plenty or "er's" and some hesitating in my commentaries, even after editing . . . .  Lol.
Anyway, I hope you find the bit about the Break Even odds of some interest.
Good luck to all in 2016,

20th December 2015.  Lay an accumulator videos.
An e-mail enquiry last week caused me to look back at some old videos that I have on YouTube that describe some trades that I did some time ago when I was laying accumulators.
I did quite well out of those, but after a while, I moved on to other topics and stopped trading accumulators.
Seeing the profits in those videos re-kindled my interest.
I sell an Excel file for trading accumulators, but that lives on my Bookie Refunds web page, so I don't think it will be reaching much of an audience these days.
Since uploading this Blog post, the Lay Accumulators file
is now also available on my Multiples web page.  as of December 23rd.

If you wade through the videos below, you may realize the potential of betting a football accumulator and then laying the teams "In Play".
You might use a bookie for your bet if there is a refund on offer, particularly a refund of a percentage losses, or even a One Leg lets You Down offer might be worth considering, but I don't have a strategy for "One Leggers".
In my experience, bookie football odds can be some way short of Betfair lay odds, so betting an accumulator in Betdaq might pay better.
Betdaq accumulators use exchange odds rather than the Sportsbook odds of Betfair and bookies.
Hit all winners and there is commission to pay on a winning acca with  Betdaq of course.

The idea is to bet your acca with a bookie or Betdaq and lay the other end of it using a spreadsheet to show the lay staking.
If we hit all winners, we need our total lay payout to be less than our bookie bet winnings.
If we hit a loser, we need the total of our good and bad lays combined to pay more than our losing bet stake.
If we can manage both of those, we have profit whatever the results.
That may look impossible as bet odds will be lower than lay odds before our events take place, but it can be done, as my videos show.
If our trade involves a bookie refund, getting into profit is less risky, especially if we can get away with betting and laying just a double rather than a treble or 4 timer.
I used to avoid anything bigger than a treble when trading bookie accumulator refunds.

There are 2 ways to tackle laying an accumulator :-
1.  Select events with time between each so that we can lay them one at a time - - ideal for bookie refunds.
One event ends, so we know the result and can work out our stake before we lay the next event.

2.  Select games that all kick off at the same time or very close, wait for our teams to get in front, and lay them at low odds.
f no refund or bonus is on offer, this method is best.
Waiting for goals from our teams carries risk, but payout can be very nice if 2 of our teams manage to lose after we have layed them at low odds.  It does happen !
The thing to avoid here is don't lay at all if you are a goal short of a good trade - - - - don't risk huge lay liabilities.
It is much cheaper to simply write off the losing bet stake of your accumulator rather than risk huge liabilities whilst you wait for one team in your acca to score.
I learned that the hard way.

My videos that show trades have been on YouTube for a couple of years, but were previously not set as "Public" and visible.
I have also been short of a video that describes my sheets, so I put one together today.

Copyright notice.  In the 3 videos below, Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited.  The Sporting Exchange Limited.
Copyright notice. In the videos below, BETDAQ content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Global Betting Exchange.

  1. Video 1 demonstrates the 2 spreadsheets in my "Lay an Accumulator" Excel file.
  2. How to lay bookie accumulator refund offers - - uses the Profit Target sheet.
  3. Video 2 describes the Dutching sheet again (an earlier version), but demonstrates laying a treble at about 5 minutes onwards.
  4. Video 3 describes 5 of my trades and shows the stakes in my account.
    Note that this spreadsheet file is now also available on
    my Multiples web page..
    Note also that Dortmund only scored one goal, not 2  . . . . a mistake in my commentary.

    For a BIGGER VIEW of these videos, click the small icon bottom right with 4 square corners.
    To move from one video to the next, click the double arrow icon, bottom left of the YouTube screen.


After Christmas, I hope to expand the number of spreadsheets on my Multiples web page.
I have a couple of sheets as well as this one ready and waiting.
As always, good luck with your trades,

26th November 2015.   Football. . . . .  Lay the Draw exit strategy.
We've all probably had a go at LTD and come unstuck when a goal has gone in and the odds of the Draw didn't lengthen enough, so we had a red trade.
As far as I know, no-one has ever come up with a solution to that problem, but a few years ago, I found a footy Forum where 2 or 3 members were discussing laying the 2 teams to make an exit without too much damage.
That would be a lay of the draw, followed by lays of the 2 teams, thus laying all 3 outcomes.

The idea is to lay of the Draw in a game that has a strong favourite team.
If the outsider scores first and the odds of the Draw don't lengthen, lay a chunk on the "Outsider" team that is winning.
Then, if the strong favourite team equalizes, lay both teams to exit the trade.

After one goal, if we cannot bet the Draw to a hedge profit, we certainly can't simply lay both teams to Dutch all 3 outcomes to profit either.
To apply this Dutching exit strategy, we need a 2nd goal to get the score to 1-1, whilst we lay the teams in 2 stages at 0-1 and 1-1.

To show the staking, I put a Dutching spreadsheet together for placing several lays on 3 selections. . . That was in 2009.
I could then lay the 2 teams in 2 stages and that worked a treat.
Bear in mind that this is an exit strategy that aims to exit a trade with zero loss, or reduced loss.
There were times when I traded into profit using this method, but mostly it was damage limitation.

If we use the balanced staking of Dutching, this is the logic of the exit strategy and how to stake it, assuming that the outsider of the 2 teams has scored first and the odds of the Draw are smaller than when we placed our lay :-

After the first goal we lay the winning "Outsider" team to break even or for a very small profit.
If the score remains at one goal, or the outsider team scores a 2nd goal, do nothing.. . as our loss is zero.
If the score gets to 1-1, lay the strong favourite team and also lay the outsider team again to complete the Dutching of all 3 outcomes.
That completes Dutching of all 3 outcomes . . . . . . We have layed all 3 for an equal profit or loss whatever the result.
If goals are scored and we can do that ok , we will have layed the outsider team at slightly lower odds than if we had simply layed both teams after the first goal.
When the 2nd goal goes in and we lay again, that first lay of the Outsider team at lower odds reduces the overall odds of our lays on that team.
Those lower combined odds on the Outsider team help us to lay our way out of trouble.
That is the logic.

Lay the Draw for 20 at odds of 3.9.for liabilities of minus -49.
These are the lay odds of the 2 teams before kick off  - - - -  Fav team 1.74 & Outsider team 5.9.

At 36 minutes, the outsider of the 2 teams scores first - - - The odds for the Draw are 3.45 when the market resumes
The odds of the 2 teams are now 2.5 for what was the Favourite team, and 3.2 for the winning Outsider team.
In the spreadsheet below, I entered odds after the goal of 3.2 and 2.5 for the 2 teams in the yellow row halfway down the sheet.
The sheet then showed that lays of the 2 teams at odds of 3.2 with a stake of 24.38 and at 2.5 for 31.20 would equalize the trade for a loss of minus
-2.43 whatever the result.
That would be very similar to the loss if we had bet the Draw to exit for an equal profit or loss.

Use the exit strategy.
To use the exit strategy, we need to lay the winning Outsider team to break even.
The spreadsheet below shows our 20 lay of the Draw at the bottom of the left hand section and a first 9 "Break even" lay of the winning "Outsider" team at the bottom of the middle section.
Now we can see that i
f we lay Dutch the 2 teams at those odds for the stakes 15.38 & 31.20 shown top left and also along the yellow row in the spreadsheet we still lose minus -2.43 whatever the result.
The position of the whole trade so far is shown at the top in the middle - - minus -49 for the Draw, plus 0.20 for the Outsider.
The 2 successful lays make a profit of plus 29 if the Fav team wins.

3.90 0.00   DRAW -49.00        
3.20 15.38 -2.43 Outsider 0.20        
2.50 31.20 -2.43 Fav Losing 29.00        
Cuurent       Position      
Odds Lay Stake IF Layed Odds Lay Stake IF Layed Odds Lay Stake IF Layed
3.70 0.00   1.50 32.80 4.88 3.70 21.08 4.88
3.75 0.00   1.51 32.58 4.38 3.75 20.80 4.38
3.80 0.00   1.52 32.37 3.89 3.80 20.53 3.89
3.85 0.00   1.53 32.16 3.42 3.85 20.26 3.42
3.90 0.00   1.54 31.95 2.95 3.90 20.00 2.95
3.95 0.00   1.55 31.74 2.49 3.95 19.75 2.49
3.90 0.00   3.20 15.38 -2.43 2.50 31.20 -2.43
4.05 0.00   1.57 31.34 1.60 4.05 19.26 1.60
4.10 0.00   1.58 31.14 1.16 4.10 19.02 1.16
4.15 0.00   1.59 30.94 0.74 4.15 18.80 0.74
4.20 0.00   1.60 30.75 0.32 4.20 18.57 0.32
4.25 0.00   1.61 30.56 -0.09 4.25 18.35 -0.09
DRAW Outsider "Winning" team Fav Losing team
Lay odds Stake Liability Lay odds Stake Liability Lay odds Stake Liability
3.90 20.00 -58.00 3.20 9.00 -19.80      

Below. . . . Later in the game, the Fav team scores an equalizer to get the score to 1-1.
We now need to complete the lay Dutching of our 2 teams at the new odds of 7.4 for the Outsider team, and 1.86 for the fav team.
Enter those odds in the yellow row, and the sheet shows in the pink column against those odds, the stakes required to equalize the trade for minus -0.42 whatever the result, shown top left in the yellow cells.
Lay the Outsider team at 7.4 for 6.65, and the Fav team for 41.94 to equalize the profit or loss to -0.42..

3.90 0.00   DRAW -49.00        
7.40 6.65 -0.42 Outsider 0.20        
1.86 41.94 -0.42 Fav team 29.00        
Cuurent       Position      
Odds Lay Stake IF Layed Odds Lay Stake IF Layed Odds Lay Stake IF Layed
3.70 0.00   1.50 32.80 4.88 3.70 21.08 4.88
3.75 0.00   1.51 32.58 4.38 3.75 20.80 4.38
3.80 0.00   1.52 32.37 3.89 3.80 20.53 3.89
3.85 0.00   1.53 32.16 3.42 3.85 20.26 3.42
3.90 0.00   1.54 31.95 2.95 3.90 20.00 2.95
3.95 0.00   1.55 31.74 2.49 3.95 19.75 2.49
3.90 0.00   7.40 6.65 -0.42 1.86 41.94 -0.42
4.05 0.00   1.57 31.34 1.60 4.05 19.26 1.60
4.10 0.00   1.58 31.14 1.16 4.10 19.02 1.16
4.15 0.00   1.59 30.94 0.74 4.15 18.80 0.74
4.20 0.00   1.60 30.75 0.32 4.20 18.57 0.32
4.25 0.00   1.61 30.56 -0.09 4.25 18.35 -0.09
DRAW Outsider "Winning" team Fav Losing team
Lay odds Stake Liability Lay odds Stake Liability Lay odds Stake Liability
3.90 20.00 -58.00 3.20 9.00 -19.80      

That all looks very nice, but if the equalizing goal comes quite a bit later in the game, the odds of the 2 teams may not be low enough for the Dutching stakes to get us out of trouble.
The odds of the Draw at a score of 1-1 will be roughly at the same level as if the score had stayed at 0-0, so the Draw odds will be lower and the odds of the 2 teams would have increased quite a bit.
Whilst the score is 1-0, or 0-1, we have a large minus -49 liability against a draw outcome shown at the top of the spreadsheet.
The later the equalizing goal, the bigger loss we will make if we try to trade out.
An equalizing goal in the middle of the 2nd half can be very bad news. . . . We will have no way out.
The later the equalizing goal, the closer to losing minus -49 for our trade.
The result of our trade would be exactly the same if we had waited and bet the Draw much later for an exit with the score at 1-1.
An equalizing goal well into the 2nd half is a big problem for this exit strategy.

I used this exit strategy for quite a while before I hit a game in which the score stayed at 0-1 and I saw the danger.
Luckily for me, my game ended with a 0-1 score so I escaped without serious damage, but I stopped my LTD trades after that scare.
I have come back to this LTD problem many times, but like everyone else, I cannot see an answer to the problem of the odds for the Draw not lengthening after one goal.

After the score gets to 1-1, another quick goal from the Fav team before our 2 equalizing lays have got matched is very good news.
At 2-1 to the Fav team, the odds of the Fav team will drop considerably for a very nice profit from our Dutching as we have already partly Dutched the Outsider team at low odds, and now our Fav team odds are very low.
Anything can happen in a football match, and that happened for me once.
As always, good luck with your trades,

22nd November 2015.  Back to an old football strategy.
I deleted the 2 most recent topics today, dated October and November, as neither of them were going anywhere, so onwards and upwards, back to paper trading an old football strategy.
I am "Fine Tuning" my old exit strategy for that - - - - - if goals don't go according to plan.
We all have plenty of experience of goals being scored at the wrong time, no goals at all, or scored by the "Wrong team" etc.

If things go wrong in my games, my exit strategy can work a treat, but can also have a problem, so I am working on getting around that..
I am paper trading at present, using several games that all kick off at around the same time.
Testing things out on one game at a time takes ages so checking several games at a time should speed things up a bit for me.

I am not expecting to trade Risk Free.
I expect to hit losing games, but I am hoping to win in the long term if I can reduce the losses in those losing games.
Too often we have lots of small gains wiped out by one or 2 big red trades.
t would be nice to have good profit from winning games, but reduced losses from losing games.

If I can manage that I will win overall.
That is a nice simple scenario, but I imagine, very hard to achieve.
I'll keep you posted on progress,.
As always, good luck with your trades,

17th Sept 2015.  Tipsters - - - Ratings versus tips.
I would guess that we have all tried using free tips at some time, and perhaps had a dabble with ratings for horse races.
During 2014, I subscribed to a free ratings service that supplied horse race ratings by e-mail every day.
From what I remember, winners were claimed from within the top few rated horses, some at very nice prices of course, but hitting them with a bet and making it pay wasn't easy.
There were races which weren't won by a highly rated horse of course.
The claims for winners were accurate enough, "5/1 winner rated in the top 3" etc.
I paper traded for a while but gave up as the combined odds of the runners if I was looking to bet several runners made things very difficult.

Combined Odds.
We can Dutch runners by betting several highly rated horses for an equal profit if we hit the winner or an equal loss if we hit losers, but doing that reduces the overall odds that we take of course. . . . the Combined Odds.
Dutch a few runners, and we are then betting at the "Lower" combined odds of those runners.
Working out the combined odds of several odds is a percentage calculation.
A nice easy starting point is odds of 3/1 and 3/1, which in decimal odds is 4.0 and 4.0.
Just remember that the combined odds of 3/1 and 3/1 = even money . . . . odds of 2.0, and you can then easily remember how to work out any combination of combined odds - - - for any number of runners..

To work out the combined odds, divide 100 by the decimal odds of each runner and we get the percentage of the odds . . . 100 / 4.0 = 25%
Do that for all your runners and add the percentages together to get the total percentage of all your odds combined.

To convert that total back to decimal odds, divide 100 by the total percentage of your combined odds.

So, 4.0 and 4.0 = 25% plus 25% = 50%.
Divide 100 by 50 = odds of 2.0 . . . . or Evens.
That 3/1 & 3/1 example is very easy to remember and will enable you to work things out. . . . "3/1 & 3/1 = Evens" will help you to remember the method.

Odds of 5.0, 4.0, and 10.0 for instance would be 20% plus 25% plus 10% = 55%.
Divide 100 by 55 = combined odds of 1.818 . . . some way shorter than evens, perhaps a bit surprising for those reasonable looking odds..

Now that we can see the maths of combined odds, we can see the big problem with trying to profit from ratings, rather than just a single tip.
This week, I have come across a web site that appears to offer some very impressive profits from Each Way tips at bookie odds, and also puts up other stuff in multiples.
I have only just come across this web site this week, but it offers tips not ratings, and although some tips appear to involve multiples, there appear to be single bets available, so I may start with the singles and break myself in gently . . . Lol.
I'll take a look at the web site for a while and see what happens.

That should keep me occupied for a while.
As always, good luck with your trades,

14th September 2015  Links to a very interesting read.
I received a link to a very interesting article today concerning bookies and how they may be tracking customer activity.

Follow this link to a web site.

Follow this link to view the original article.

If you do a search on your computer, remember to include the apostrophe  '  at the beginning and end of your search text.
Alternatively, put an asterisk   *  in front of your search text.

At first, I thought I was in the clear, but after including an apostrophe at either end of my text I found 2 files on my laptop.
Search for   'mpsnare'   or  *mpsnare  and you may be just as unpleasantly surprised as I was.
Good luck with getting rid of a few files if you feel the need to do that,
Disclaimer.   The web sites at the end of the links above have nothing to do with me.
Links are posted here for interest only.

8th September 2015  One Point staking plan posts removed.
If you have visited this Blog during the last few months, you may have seen several posts describing One Point staking plans.
Those came to a dead end, with a demonstration of a laying spreadsheet showing the dangers of retrieval staking - - - chasing losses.
I have removed those posts.
It's back to the drawing board as usual, and onwards and upwards,
5th August 2015.  The end of an era - - My bookies free bets dry up.
I will be 69 on Sept 3rd.  Are the bookies ruining the Autumn of my years ?  . . . Lol.

For the past several years, since 2007 in my case, we punters have enjoyed the luxury of free bets given to us by bookies as an incentive to open an on-line account, or as a reward to an existing customer for placing a bet in a nominated market.
We all know about that.
For anyone with a bit of ingenuity, there could only be one winner from a situation like that - - - Yes, for a change it was us, the punter..
For years, we have been able to trade these free bet offers for guaranteed winnings with zero risk.
I don't know about you, but during the the recent 8 or 9 Klondike years, I have won back everything I had ever lost before in my lifetime, and shown a very handsome profit on top - - - - - - It was very nice while it lasted..

From e-mail correspondence with bookie's affiliate representatives when I used to put affiliate advertising on my web sites, I know that bookies allow a budget for their free bet and refund offers, so they must expect free bet offers to cause them a loss.

Over the past year or 2 however, bookies have tightened up in a big way and are certainly not as naive as they used to be.
Gone are the days of refund offers from a range of bookies almost every day of the week that could be traded to profit, risk free.
Refund offers used to come in all shapes and sizes, and working out the staking so that different offers could be traded risk free was part of the fun and challenge of trading bookies free bets and refunds.

Web sites dedicated to trading free bet sign-ups and refunds sprung up all over the place, some with video descriptions of how to trade different offers.
These days, such web sites seem to be dying out as bookies amazingly seem to have woken up (at last) and are collectively putting up very similar offers, most of which are not worth trading.
Probably most of us will have experienced the "Red card" treatment - - - account closure, or stake limitations and the offer of refunds and bonuses withdrawn as bookies look to eliminate customers who think seriously about how they trade.

On top of that, if we happen to bet on "the wrong thing", we can be red carded.
I experienced that almost a year ago when I opened an account with a very well known bookie.
Both my first bet and my free "Sign-up" bet hit horses which shortened in the betting.
I doubt very much that my cash was enough to influence the 2 horse race betting markets concerned, but I was "Red carded" after just 2 bets, my initial deposit, followed by the free bet.
Someone didn't like what I was doing, even though I had been encouraged to open an account by the offer of a free bet.
All I had done was bet in 2 horse races.
Maybe they thought I was an Arber.

If we go to a racecourse and walk up and down the line of bookies to get the best available price for our horse, that is ok.
Use an odds comparison web site to do the same thing on-line, and apparently, we are not playing the game, so we get the red card.
One bookie offers better odds than another, so we bet with him but he doesn't like it.
We get the into trouble for betting the best odds.
What we may be doing at the other end of our trade is anyone's guess, but our account gets "restricted".

Of course, bookies are up against technology here, not just a bunch of punters having a bet.
We have spreadsheets for calculating stakes, and sophisticated software dedicated to placing bets and working out our staking
We can only guess that bookies are unable to keep pace with all that we punters now have at our fingertips.

It just amazes me that bookies went down the "Free bets" road in the first place.
How can they expect us to lose if they offer what is almost the equivalent of adding an extra point to the odds that we take ?
If I bet 10 at evens and also get a free 10 bet, surely the bookie is offering me odds of 3.0, not 2.0 is he not ?
How am I supposed to lose in the long term with offers like that  . . . . . Lol ?

It wouldn't need Einstein to work out that some bright spark would very quickly come up with some staking to take advantage of a situation like that.
Amazingly, it has taken the best part of a decade for the bookies to wake up to the ludicrous situation that they have got themselves into as they compete to attract customers, who they hope will somehow lose money with them.

We are now seeing some bookies struggling to keep trading, whilst others merge with other bookies in an attempt to outgrow the competition.
Who would have thought that Coral and Ladbrokes would be looking to merge ?
Times must be hard.

Where does this leave you and me ?
Unfortunately, we are being forced to get back to the risky stuff . . .  Lol, betting, laying, or both, with some risk involved.

Another "Red Card" for me yesterday, prompted this rant.
I've all but given up on the risk free stuff now, so I am having to contend with the highs and lows of trading with risk..
As always, bon chance with your trades, and your free bets if you still qualify for them,

3rd August 2015.  Those annoying & un-necessary words.
If you watched last week's televised racing from Goodwood, you may have noticed the latest "Fad word" or one-word sentence.
For years now, we've had trainers and jockeys chucking in "Ya know ?" everywhere throughout interviews, usually at the end of every other sentence.
Things moved on last week in a slightly different direction.
We now have "Listen." thrown in at the beginning of every other sentence.

Listen. No-doubt in future interviews, we'll be getting both chucked in together. Ya know ?

Even Martin Keown used "Listen" at the front of his sentences several times during his summing up of the Charity Shield football match yesterday, so this totally superfluous verbage is likely to infiltrate other televised sporting events.
While I'm at it, "This afternoon" throughout several of the last few Tour De France's caused me to give most of it a miss this year.
I don't know about you, but continual Fad Words spouting out of my telly during televised sport drive me potty.

These people would be better sticking to a pre written script.
Don't they ever watch recordings afterwards and listen to themselves ?
I wonder if their written e-mails, letters and other correspondence are peppered with this nonsense ?
Come on ladies and gents on T.V., give it a rest,

18th April 2015.  LOTD Rolling lays and a very dry start to The Flat Season.
The weather recently has been quite dry with the result that the going has dried out a little earlier than normal this year.
The effect of that is that the Draw has come into effect in a few flat races this last week.
Let's hope that the rain stays away.

At Beverley on Thursday, the 15:05 race was a 5F race for older horses.
The horses drawn in the 3 stalls next to the far rail finished 1st, 2nd, & 3rd.
Those used to be the Top 3 stalls, but after stalls re-numbering a few years ago, they are now stalls 1, 2, & 3.
The winner was drawn in stall 2 of 17.
I would guess that we are all familiar with the draw advantage in Beverley 5F races.

Today at Thirsk, there were 4 races for horses aged 3yrs or older with 8 or more runners over the 5F & 6F course.
All 4 races were won by horses drawn in the top 6 stalls.
Winners were drawn 4 of 8, 12-12, 5-10 & 10-10.
The analysis on these web pages describe Thirsk draw advantages in detail, using old results :-
Thirsk 5F     Thirsk 6F
Follow this link for links to all UK course & distances.

At the start of the flat season 3 weeks ago, I started a "Lay Of The Day" using my "Rolling Lays" spreadsheet, with the intention of laying a badly drawn horse occasionally.
Follow this link to view a video describing a "Rolling Lays  spreadsheet.
I started with a lay liability of 10 with the intention of "Rolling up" my profits (re-investing winnings) with the aim of laying throughout the flat season without hitting a winner with one of my lays.
If I can double my money a few times, I will have some nice juicy lays for the risk of only my tenner.
I am waiting for good laying opportunities, so I don't have a lay every day, but sometimes only once a week..
So far I have layed in 8 races and doubled my money for a liability of just over 20 for my next lay, hopefully later this week.
You will probably work out from 10 profit from 8 lays, that I am not laying favourites . . . Lol.

If I can double my money with another 8 lays I'll be laying for a liability of 40 and upwards, and if I can double my cash again, after that I'll be laying for a liability of 80 and upwards. . . . and so on.
If I hit a winner at any point, I will have lost only my initial 10, so I am hoping to have a bit of excitement for just 10.
Double my cash and my tenner will see my lay liability increase  . . . 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280 etc. . . if I am very lucky.
At my present rate, in theory that could be 7 times 8 successful lays = 56 lays to hit 1280. . . . dream on.

I'm looking for badly drawn horses, preferably ridden by an inexperienced rider.
I'm also trying to avoid big stables.
Although I had 4 sprint races to choose from today at Thirsk, I only layed one runner, in the 18:15 race at Thirsk over 6F.
My lady rider (claiming 5 lbs) was drawn 1 of 10 runners. . . . . . .  Betfair Lay odds were 11.0 around dinner time.
Her horse had won only 1 of its 34 races so far, so it looked to me that drawn in stall 1
she was up against it a little..
On top of that, Mr. Fallon on the fav was drawn best of all in stall 10 of 10 . . . Lol.
He won by 4 lengths.
My horse finished 9th of the 10 runners.

My jockey (claiming 3 lbs) at Beverley on Wednesday was drawn in stall 12 of 17.
From what I could see, it was his first ride at Beverley, so that looked ok to me for a lay as he was in the "wrong" half of the draw and not drawn high enough to try running up the stands rail looking for faster ground.
In the race he attempted to race towards the far side of the course.
After running prominently early in the race, his mount faded and he finished 13th, . . . . nearer last than first.
I layed him at odds of 17.0 well before race time.

Apologies for the bit of after timing here.
If my stakes start to get excitingly large, I may post my selections on a web page for a bit of added interest . . . for me at least.
That may take a while laying my runners at double figure odds.
This is a long term game that I am playing, at least until I hit a winner . . . Lol.
As always, good luck with your trades,

29th March 2015.  What helps a horse to win ?
We all have our own way of looking at horse races and trying to find the winner, or even something that may get placed.
Conversely, we may be looking for a reason why something may not win so that we can place a lay.
There are lots of bits of information that we might combine together such as the position in a betting forecast, course winner, course and distance winner, previous form placings, etc. . . . .
In my opinion, none of that type of information actually helps a horse to win its race on the day.
If we look for something that may assist our runner, or disadvantage our runners, in my opinion one item of information stands head and shoulders above all the others in flat races on turf - - - - - a good draw.

Draw advantage information has been provided for many years, but historically, it has been extremely poor.
By far the best example of extremely poor advice was draw advantage advice offered for Epsom 5f races way back in the 1970's and 1980's, when all Epsom 5f races were started with the starting stalls positioned away from the stands, mostly next to the far (Low) running rail, but occasionally in the centre of the course.
Stall number one was very often next to the running rail.
At that time, ALL our national newspapers advised a Low draw advantage in Epsom 5f races..
The theory was that the horses nearest to the Low rail would enjoy an advantage as they would run next to the running rail.
That "Low draw advantage" advice continued unchanged for at least 10 years, but unfortunately for punters, it was completely wrong.

In the late 1970's and early 1980's, I collected draw advantage data and did a simple count up of the number of wins from each staring stall in all races 5F to 1 mile at all British race courses.
From my analysis of that data it soon became clear that Epsom 5F races had one of the strongest draw advantages in the country, but the advantage favoured High drawn horses, not those drawn in low numbered stalls.
Drainage was the dominant factor, and still is today in Epsom 5F races.
On Epsom's straight course, there is a cross-course slope which can be seen on television.
For most of the straight, the Stands side of the straight course is quite a bit higher than the far side of the straight.
That slope may cause the high side (Stands side) to drain quicker and dry out quicker than the far side, so we get faster ground closer to the stands than towards the far running rail.
Until I pointed that out in the National Press in 1982, it went completely un-noticed by our national press and other publications at that time.
Now of course, it is common knowledge.
Follow this link to view the information that I used to come to that "High draw advantage" conclusion.
The chart nearest to the bottom of that web page shows the old data from 1976 to 1983 that I used.
That chart shows very clearly that in races for horses aged 3 yrs or older, just 3 horses were winning nearly all 5F races at Epsom.
They were the 3 horses drawn in the 3 highest numbered stalls, drawn farthest away from the running rail towards the centre of the course.
During those years, on good or better going, there were 16 races for 3yr olds and older horses that had 8 or more runners.
Only 3 winners started from the bottom half of the draw.
12 of the other 13 winners started from the top 3 stalls.

To combat that glaring draw advantage, Epsom race course now position the starting stalls next to the High rail on the stands side - never against the low rail.
They have been doing that since the mid 1980's.
I like to think that I have caused that with my draw advantage analysis . . . .Lol.

So, if we were to bet or lay in 5F races at Epsom it would be worth taking that into consideration would it not ?
If the draw is important in Epsom 5f races, it may also be important in races at other venues.

I haven't updated my draw advantage information for quite some time, but my guess is that unless there have been drastic alterations such as those at Ascot (a new straight course when the new stand was built), Haydock (a new sprint course), and York (big drainage alterations), many of the draw advantages of old will still apply today at some courses.

The best draw advantages occur on good or better going, so we normally need to wait until about late May for draw advantages to play a reliable part in races, but we appear to have had a reasonably dry spring this year.
The going at Doncaster was nearer Good than Good-soft this past weekend.

During the winter, Warwick racecourse decided to offer only jumps races in future.
As there will not be any flat racing at Warwick we have lost a very good draw advantage in Warwick 6F races that was well worth following.
That advantage was due to a bend shortly after the start in those 6f races, rather than drainage.

If you are not familiar with my Draw Advantage charts, a video explanation lives on this web page.
Links to charts for each course and distance are on the All Courses tab of that web site.

Whether you are a bettor or a layer, it may be worth considering the draw as part of your selection process in turf races on the flat, particularly if the going is good or dryer.
As always, good luck with your trades,

28th March 2015.  Cheltenham winning trainers this year, 2015.
Here is a list of winning trainers at this year's Cheltenham March meeting, with the number of wins - - - There were 27 races :-
WP Mullins     8
P Nichols       3
D Pipe           2
N Henderson  2  That is 15 of the 27 winners so far from just 4 trainers.
All those below had a single win :-
N Mulholland
G Elliot
Mis R curtiss
D Weld
A J Martin
A King
W Greatrex
K Bailey
Ms M Mullins
M Bradstock
E Bolger
M Scudamore

Even amongst the single winner, there are one or 2 trainers who had a winner the previous year.
I hope you had a profitable Cheltenham this year,

28th February 2015.  Cheltenham trainers in 2014
With Cheltenham just over the horizon, I have been looking to see how many low profile trainers managed a win at last year's meeting.
It seems to me that the big guys dominate things every year, so rather than trying to hit a winner, I am hoping it will be easier to hit a loser or 2.
It seems to me that high profile trainers dominate jumps meetings when there is good prize money on offer.
We can see that on a Saturday on television.
My theory is that a horse that has not been running regularly at courses such as Ascot, Cheltenham, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown, and maybe Haydock, will be up against very stiff opposition if chucked into a big race on a Saturday at those courses.
I avoid anything that has won over the course & distance at those big courses.

Another thing that I look for is the number of runners that less well known trainers send out each day.
Big stables will regularly run 3, 4, 5, or more horses on some days, but smaller yards will have only 1 or 2, often at less fashionable courses.
Betfair's results section is good for spotting that as we can click on the trainer in there and it pulls up their past runners in date order.
That's how I tackle finding something to lay on a Saturday, usually just one for my LOTD in the big Saturday handicap.

Here is a list of winning trainers at last year's Cheltenham March meeting, with the number of wins - - - There were 27 races :-
WP Mullins 4
D Pipe        3
JJ O'Neill    3
P Hobbs     2
J Culloty     2 That is 14 of the 27 winners so far from just 5 trainers.
All those below had a single win :-
Mrs J Harrington
N Henderson
P Nicholls
A King
J Snowden
Miss R Curtiss
GL Moore
T Easaterby
G Elliot
N Meade
L Lennon
AJ Martin

Personally, as I am not very familiar with Irish trainers, I cut out the Irish in general from my calculations.
I don't see many small UK trainers left in that list after that.
If you care to look back at the 2013 results, there was a very similar trend.
Each Lay Of The Day for me will probably be at double figure odds.
I see no point in laying something that is expected to win or go close.
If an inexperienced jockey is in the driving seat, so much the better.
Bon chance with your Cheltenham lays if you have a go at them,

17th December 2014.  Lay a Double . . . . 4 possible outcomes.
It didn't take me long to realize that laying big odds in a Yankee involved some huge lay liabilities if I hit 2 winners and the next lay could involve a treble or 2, and maybe the 4 timer which could make the potential lay liabilities look frightening..
I decided that a better idea would be to lay 4 runners in 6 doubles, rather than include the 3 trebles and 4 timer to complete a Yankee.
Now if I hit 2 or more winners within my 4 runners, my payout will only be on a double or doubles.

That looked a lot less dangerous, but I then came to the conclusion that if I hit a winner with the first of my 4 lays, I had 3 more lays to go before completing my lays to complete the 6 doubles.
If my runners were Horses A, B, C, and D, the 6 doubles would be AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, & CD.
Hit a winner with a lay of Horse A, and my next 3 lays of Horses B, C, & D could all complete a double if one of those won.
That looks like one chance in 3 to me of coming unstuck, or even 3 chances in 3, possibly with some big odds.

To cut things down further, it may be best just to lay one double at a time.
Now if I hit a winner, the risk is that my next runner also wins.
Hit 2 consecutive winners and I have a loss.
If it losers, I have profit, so start a 2nd double.
Hit a loser at any point and I have profit, and start a fresh double with the next runner.

I put a spreadsheet together for that using level stakes so that I can keep track of what happens including commission deductions when I lay my doubles.
Some very helpful e-mail correspondence put me onto what I am looking at now.
Thank you very much "D.C" for your feedback and suggestions. . . . . That was just great.
My theory now is to select a 2 runner market that has plenty of money matched, and lay the outsider of the 2 selections at just above odds of 2.0, (Just above evens).
In theory, there should be just less than a 50 - 50 chance of laying a winner, so the chance of hitting a double should be something better than odds of 2.0, plus a little further than that.

If we Bet 1 on 2 runners both at odds of 2.0, the potential payout is 3 stakes.
The calculation for that is :-   (1 x 2.0 x 2.0) minus our 1 original stake = 3
If we are Laying, the lay payout on the first runner if it wins is 1.
That loss plus our original lay stake is carried onto the 2nd runner in our double, so if that also wins, we lose another 2, but our lay stake is returned.
The total loss from laying a double at odds of 2.0 & 2.0 = minus 3.

Lay a double, and there are 4 possible outcomes :-
Win / Win,  Win / Lose,   Lose / Win,   Lose / Lose..
It looks to me as if our chance of winning with our 1 is therefore 3 against 1, before commission deductions on any successful lay.

Looking at that, it appears to me that even if we lay close to even money odds of 2.0, the odds are in our favour, somewhere between 2/1 and 3/1 including commission deductions..
I hope that Murphy's Law doesn't have too much influence on my logic . . . . . . . . Lol.
We will see what happens in the next week or so, as I look to lay some doubles, one at a time, with odds close to 2.0.

If that works out anything close to ok, we may be able to use bigger odds with bigger lay liabilities, but with lay payout less often.
Lay our double at odds bigger than 2.0 and the lay payout increases, so are our 3/1 odds reduced or increased ???
Lay a 1 double at odds of 3.0 & 3.0 and the potential payout is
minus 8.
We need to hit more losers to cover a payout, and we certainly have more commission to pay on bigger successful lays if we have hit a winner, and then hit a loser with the 2nd lay of our double, for a Win / Lose outcome.

This is starting to give me a headache,

10th December 2014.   Lay a Yankee.
If you read through my earlier posts, you may come to the conclusion that the basis of my trades revolves around the risk free trading of bookie refunds that are available to existing bookie customers.
I've done very well out of those for a number of years.
Over the last 2 or 3 years, my bookie accounts with the big bookies have gradually dwindled as I have either had my refunds and bonuses stopped, stake sizes limited, or accounts closed.
On top of that, bookies these days are nowhere near as generous with their refund offers as the used to be.
The result is that my monthly profits have gradually declined, so over the past several months I have been looking for an alternative way of getting into profit every month.

Over the past few weeks, I have been looking at trading odds movements in horse races as per the Bet Trader software videos, but predicting which way the odds will move is anybody's guess, so I have been racking my brains for an alterative.
Me and my trading buddy have tried several tipster services over the past few months, but I find that they don't suit my style as I feel tied to my computer every day, waiting for the tips to turn up via e-mail, and anyway, where's the fun in betting on someone else's selections ?

Whilst I have been doing that, I have kept returning to looking at laying multiples, in particular, Yankee bets in Betfair or Betdaq.
I have a spreadsheet for that of course, follow this link.

The strategy for laying a Yankee in an exchange using a spreadsheet is to lay each runner one at a time so that we know the result of one event before we lay the next.
As our Yankee progresses, the spreadsheet works out the stake required for our next lay, depending on what winners or losers we have hit with the previous lays in our Yankee.
That is all straightforward enough, but the big question is, "What can we do to try to avoid laying 2 or more winners within our Yankee's 4 runners and have a BIG payout ?"

A selection process would be nice, but in my experience, picking losers is no easier that picking winners.
I even layed a horse at odds of 100.0 a while back.
Not everyone can claim to have managed that !!!

With that in mind, I have been looking for a mathematical solution rather than a "Normal" selection process.
Perhaps we may be less likely to lay a double if we target runners in a price range that may not hit 2 winners or more in any 4 selections.
That is what I am working with at present.

This is the "Theory" of the logic that I am currently paper trading :-
It is well documented that if enough money is in a market, the odds will reflect the chances of the runners involved.
So, with plenty of liquidity, we can expect and even money chance, ( Betfair odds 2.0 ), to win 50% of the time, or once in every 2 races.
If that is true, we can expect a 3/1 chance
( odds of 4.0 ) to win once in every 4 races, 25% of the time.

Our Yankee is a bet of 4 runners.
The minimum payout is on a double - - - 2 runners, so, if we lay 4 runners with odds of 3/1 (4.0), in the long term we can expect to hit one winner every time with our 4 runner Yankees.
If we can do that, every one of our Lay Yankees will be successful as we will only hit a single runner each time, not 2 or more.
Unfortunately, our winners and losers will come in bunches of course, so if we lay all our runners at odds of 4.0, we may lay several Yankees and hit zero winners, but at other times we may hit 2 or more winners within the 4 runners of a Yankee and have payout.

To get around that, we may lay bigger odds.
That should reduce the chance of hitting 2 or more winners within a Yankee of 4 selections.
That is the logic that I am working with.
To reduce my chances of hitting 2 winners in 4 selections, we may double the odds that we lay, and lay odds of maybe 8.0.
To add a bit more certainty, (a bad choice of word that,  . . . Lol. ), we could increase our lay odds to 10.0, and our chances of hitting one winner, in theory become 0ne in every 10 selections.
Hitting 2 winners should occur once in every 20 selections. . . . In theory. . . . I hope.
With a bit of luck, those may be more than 4 runners apart, which would give me a lot of successfully layed Yankees.

So my current rules are very simple :-
Select races at random and lay one horse in each of 4 races.
The selection to lay in each race is the first horse in the betting with odds in double figures, 10.0 or bigger.

Lay at a minimum odds of 10.0 and I would guess that our chances of hitting 2 winners in 4 runners would be quite slim.
It will happen if we lay enough Yankees, but laying 2 winners in 4 runners for a payout should be vastly reduced if we lay bigger odds.
The problem with that of course is that a payout on hitting 2 winners at odds of 10.0 will be a lot bigger than a payout on 2 winners at odds of say, 4.0, but it should occur far less often.
We could of course get off to a very bad start and hit a payout or 2 early in our trades.

To minimise the chances of a payout even further, I am keeping records of the number of runners in my races, and anything else that springs to mind, such as avoiding big trainer - jockey combinations, and laying only horses from the smaller yards.
A smaller yard could be a gambling yard of course  - - - - - so laying big prices still carries plenty of doubt and apprehension. . . .Lol.
All of these things will already be built into the odds, if the "Liquidity theory" is correct.

I may end up laying only in races with plenty of runners, and stakes races rather than handicaps, etc., etc, . . . you know how it goes.
So, that's what I am up to at present, but only on paper.
I realize that winners can come from anywhere, and that a horse doesn't know what price it is when it sets off, so anything can happen.

I'll keep you posted on progress of my "On Paper Yankees".
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.

4th November 2014.   Odds to avoid. . . . . 3, 4, 6, 10, . . . or to look for ?
If you decide to bet and lay some odds, maybe in horse racing markets hoping to hedge to a profit, if the odds move in an unfavourable direction, it may be worth considering what happens if we bet at odds of 3.0, 4.0, 6.0 or 10.0,. or possible just below those odds.

Those are the points at which Betfair increments change in size.
The implications of that are that if the odds move against us so that we need to lay at higher odds to exit our trade, a one-tick loss may be more than twice the size of a one-tick profit if the odds had dropped and we were able to lay at odds lower than our bet odds.

If we bet at odds of 3.0, the next odds increment down is 2.98, a difference of 0.02.
If we
bet at odds of 3.0, the next odds increment up is 3.05, a difference of 0.05.
So, if we bet 100 and lay at 2.98 to equalize our trade for an equal profit, we would show a profit of plus 0.67.
If things go against us and we lay at 3.05, we show a loss of
minus 1.64, a difference of almost 1.
Take 5% commission off the 0.67 profit, and we are left with a 0.64 one-tick profit against a one-tick loss of -1.64.

Bet at odds of 4.0 and the next increments are down 3.95, and up 4.1, a difference of 0.05 or 0.10.
Bet 100 at odds of 4.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :- Minus 2.44 or plus 1.27, or 1.21 after commission.

Bet at odds of 6.0 and the next increments are down 5.9, and up 6.2, a difference of 0.1 or 0.20.
Bet 100 at odds of 6.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :- Minus 3.23 or plus 1.69, or 1.61 after commission.

Bet at odds of 10.0 and the next increments are down 9.8, and up 10.5, a difference of 0.2 or 0.50.
Bet 100 at odds of 10.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :- Minus 4.76 or plus 2.04, or 1.94 after commission.

Trade around these odds, and making a profit becomes harder than if we were trading odds that didn't have an odds increment change between our bet and lay odds.
The way to get around these potential difficulties is to avoid trading odds that are close to 3.0, 4.0, 6.0 or 10.0 if you are placing a Bet First trade . . . . looking for a decrease in the odds.
If you are considering betting and laying some odds with the intention of betting high and laying low to "Green Up", you might consider placing your initial bet some way away from odds of 3, 4, 6, or 10.

However, if you anticipate that your odds will be getting bigger so you are laying first in anticipation of the odds increasing, it may be to your advantage to lay at these odds, or even one tick bigger.
If we do that, things work in our favour :-
100 at odds of 3.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :- plus 1.64, or 1.59 after commission, or minus 0.67.
Lay 100 at odds of 4.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :- plus 2.44, or 2.32 after commission, or minus 1.27.
Lay 100 at odds of 6.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :- plus 3.23, or 3.07 after commission, or minus 1.69.
Lay 100 at odds of 10.0 and equalize one tick up or down for :- plus 4.76, or 4.52 after commission, or minus 2.04.

As always, good luck with the trades, and don't forget 3, 4, 6, & 10, if you are betting and laying odds . . .  Howard.

1st November 2014.  Horse racing odds movements.
In the next week or so, I may be linking from here to some software that may help with predicting odds movements in horse races.
There may also be links to demonstration videos.

I'll be having a go with the software myself.
The initial cost of that will be just 99 pence for the first month.
After that, the cost of using the software will be substantially more, so watch for the link from here sometime after Monday November 10th.
Good luck with the trades, Howard.

8th September 2014.   New  Analyse web page up and running.
After some video software problems, I've eventually put a new "Analyse Data" tab on my Strategies web site.
Another problem that I had is that the Analyse spreadsheet file will not load into Open Office software. . . .  It will only work in Excel.
A smaller version of the file worked ok in Open Office, but once I expanded it to accommodate more columns of data, Open Office refused to co-operate.
I've put a warning about that and the size of the Excel file on my web page.
So, if you are interested in improving your selection process for your bets in any sport, you might take a look at the videos for this new file.

Last week, I started collecting some Premiership football data, including Betfair odds.
I'm looking to add another video to the 2 that are on the Analyse Data tab of
my Strategies web site to demonstrate how the sheet could be used to analyse football data.
I will need maybe 3 or 4 weeks of results to get started with that, but even then that will only be 30 or 40 games. . . .  A very small sample.
30 or 40 games will have to do for a footy demonstration, otherwise we'll be heading towards December before I put a football video together.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.

15th August 2014.  Analyse your results.
I've had a break from putting spreadsheets together and enjoyed things on my domestic scene for the past month or 3, but now I'm ready to put one or 2 new ideas forward on my web sites.
My main offering will be a spreadsheet file that will enable data or results to be analysed.
If you have a series of results available that maybe show a profit, this spreadsheet package will enable you to analyse those results further and see exactly what is working for you and what isn't.
For example, you may have some horse racing results with detail such as Odds,
Distance, Type of race, Age group, Course, etc.
You may even have a list of results from a tipping service that may only quote the odds of past winners and losers.
Whatever the information that you have available, it can be analysed to get the best out of it.

This spreadsheet package has a data input tab that allows input of odds, plus another 3 columns for analysis of anything that involves numbers, and 2 columns for anything that involves text.
Input your odds, result for a winner or a loser, plus up to 5 other bits of info for anything else that involves numbers or text.
Then go to an "Analysis" spreadsheet in the same file to see graphs of each of those different items of information showing the profit or loss over the time period of your input.

Now for the interesting bit.
Inputs on this Analysis spreadsheet allow you to set limits for each item of information, and see what the profit or loss would be within those limits.
For example, you might set upper and lower limits for your Odds so that you can see which odds pay best, short odds, big odds, or something in between.
An example for information involving a text input might be the type of race :- You might look at whether stakes races pay better than handicaps, or if sellers, amateurs races, apprentice races, or All Weather races etc. affect your profit & loss.
The choice is yours.
For each of your bits of individual information, the Analysis spreadsheet shows the total number of races and the number of winners and losers as you alter your number limits, or text criteria.
The Total races and number of winners are used to show your Winning Strike Rate within the limits that you set, or the text item that you select.
Profit or loss to a 1 level stake is shown, and a graph shows the progress of that profit or loss over the period of your data input.
I will be adding LLR (Longest Losing Run), and LWR (Longest Winning Run) to those displays.

Once you have done the "Fine Tuning" for each individual bit of information, to get the best out each of them, they are all combined on a single graph, with a list of the limits that you have set. - - - giving you a written list of your "Filters".
You now have your personal "Betting Method", with your filter rules listed.
Once again, you can see Total Races, winning strike rate, P & L, and the progress of your profit and loss shown on a graph, this time for all your filters combined.
Alter any filter, and your list of filters will reflect that and the P & L graph will update.

Your analysis need not be limited to horses of course.
You can input information related to anything you like, football, dogs, tennis, cricket, the weather . . . .anything.
If you are betting on something at present, why not keep track of the results and tweak your betting as you go along ?

At present, I only have a betting Analysis spreadsheet package, but I will be converting that so that we can also analyse lays.
So, if you are interested in analysing your stuff, or anything other data that you come across, such as the results of some tips on a web page somewhere, you might like to analyse those bits of information and improve things a little.
Once your data is in the spreadsheet, you can manipulate it as much as you like, very quickly, easily, and very accurately.
The results of your analysis will be instant, with a graphical display of profit and loss that updates immediately.

I'll be adding a new web page to one or more of my web sites to accommodate this Analysis spreadsheet package.
A video or 2 will describe the spreadsheets and demonstrate what you might get out of the data you input.
That will take a while.
As always, good luck with your trades,  Howard.

21 April 2014.  Arsenal beat Hull 0 - 3.
Apologies for putting a tip up rather than discussing staking in the previous post below.
Very pleasing results all round with Everton also beating Man U.
I think we can expect a different Hull side to be competing for the F.A. Cup in May.
19th April 2014.  Lay of the day tomorrow . . . . Hull.
I'm not a very good tipster, but . . . . .
If Arsenal qualify for the Champions league, Hull get to play in Europe next season whether they win or lose the FA Cup in May.
If Arsenal don't qualify for Europe, Hull will only get to play in Europe if they beat Arsenal in the FA Cup Final.

With that in mind :- 
Those 2 teams meet tomorrow, Sunday, in the Premiership.

Arsenal are currently 4th in the Premiership, 1 point in front of Everton, so a win for Arsenal against Hull would keep them one point in front of Everton at the very least.
A draw could see Everton overtake Arsenal if Everton beat Man Utd.
Man Utd have nothing to play for now.
With both Everton and Spurs ahead of them for the Premiership 5th place Europa spot, Man U are not in close contention for Europe or anything else.
The 2 games kick off at :- 14:05 Hull - Arsenal, and 16:10 for Everton - Man U.
From a business point of view, it is not in Hull's interest to win tomorrow's game against Arsenal.
If Hull take the lead, a Draw result after that would not look as bad as a Hull loss after being in a winning situation.
Questions might be asked by Everton.
So, in my opinion, the thing to do is lay Hull.
It makes no sense for Hull to win this game, and not much sense for Hull to Draw either, so logically, Hull must be a lay.
Arsenal will be looking to put one over on Hull in readiness for the FA Cup Final.
Also, Arsenal one point clear of Everton in 4th spot, need to keep winning to make sure that they qualify for The Champion's League..
Arsenal have an easier run for their last few games than Everton.
Even so, every point counts, so Arsenal will be up for a Win.
Hull should be up for a Lose.
That's my assessment for what it's worth.
Arsenal play Hull before Everton meet Man U, so Hull must play this game and make sure that they do not win.
That will almost certainly get Hull into Europe regardless of what happens in the FA Cup Final.

Hull are currently on 36 points - - 6 & 7 points clear of the bottom 3 Premiership teams.
Hull have games in hand on those 3 teams, but still have to play Fulham, Villa, Man U, and Everton.

I'll be laying Hull.
Current odds are Bet 4.7, Lay 4.8,

Good luck if you have a go at that, but please bear in mind that anything can happen in a football match. . . . Lol,


7th April 2014.   How to trade bookie accumulator refunds to profit.
I updated
my Bookie Refunds web page. today to include this new spreadsheet.
I put a video together last week to describe the staking for several different kinds of bookie accumulator refund.
This spreadsheet package now has 5 videos that describe a couple of spreadsheets and some accumulator refund trades that I did a while ago.
Good luck with your accumulators if you have a go at them,
28th March 2014.  Lay an accumulator spreadsheet.
Bookies seem to be offering more refunds and bonus payments that involve betting a double, treble, or a 4 or 5 timer.
For the past few months, since September 2013,  I have been trading these successfully to guaranteed winnings with zero or very little risk to my cash.
I put some videos together several months ago to describe the spreadsheet that I am using and to show live trades and the results.
I am now almost ready to put this spreadsheet package up on my Bookie Refunds web page.
I need to put another video or 2 together and then I can go ahead with that.

Just as with the bookie offers that we are used to seeing, these accumulator offers come in several different forms :-

  • Bet an accumulator and get a free bet.
  • Bet an accumulator and get a free accumulator bet.
  • Bet an winning accumulator and the bookie will add a percentage to our winnings.
    I wouldn't attempt to profit from a low percentage bonus such as 10% or 20% when trading acumulators.
  • Bet an accumulator and get a refund if our accumulator is a loser.
    This last one may be described by your bookie as a "No Lose" offer.

Refunds may be a cash refund of our bet stake, or more often these days, our stake may be refunded as a free bet.
Whatever the offer, these bookie accumulator offers are well worth looking at.
Mostly, they can be traded to profit with zero or very little risk.
Surprisingly, one of the best sources of these refunds over the last 6 or 7 months has been Betfair's Fixed Odds web site that is bolted onto the exchange.
Even Betdaq got into the swing of things during Cheltenham week with a 100% winnings added offer on each of the 4 days if we bet a 10 double using their Multiples section.
If you missed that at the time, it was an offer to double our winnings up to 1000 if we hit a winning 10 double in the Cheltenham races.

An offer like that with a 1000 bonus within the text may conjure up visions of amazing possibilities, but the end result of trading these accumulator refunds is exactly the same as if we were trading similar offers for a single selection :-
The profit from trading the qualifying bet, plus a 2nd trade of the free bet produces a profit that is a percentage of our original bet stake.
For example, if we bet 10 with a bookie to qualify for a 10 free bet, we expect to make a small loss when betting and laying the 10 qualifying bet.
We then bet and lay the free bet, knowing that we can make guaranteed profit of 70% of our free 10, or more if we trade a horse, maybe less for football.
That 7 recovers the small loss from trading the qualifying bet and gives us profit on top.
We may make more than 5 or 6 from the 2 trades combined, with zero risk to our cash.
These accumulator refund and bonus offers work on exactly the same principle :-

  • Bet and lay the qualifier.
  • Bet and lay the free bet.
  • The overall profit will be a percentage of our original bet stake.
    The profit will generally be slightly smaller than we might expect from a normal free bet offer, but can be very similar if we are able to lay suitable odds.

There are 2 strategies.
Mostly, we can select runners or football teams for our double, treble, or 4 or 5 timer, with time between each event.
We then lay those in turn as they take place.
If we hit a winner with our first lay, we need to lay the 2nd runner or team to recover those lost liabilities.
Hit the winner with our 2nd lay and we need to recover the lost liabilities from both races 1 and 2, and so on.
Hit a loser at any point and that is end of trade.
We have a successful lay that recovered lost liabilities, but a losing bet with our bookie.
Get the staking right whilst we are doing that and we can trade to profit every time over the 2 trades, qualifying bet plus free bet combined, providing that our lay odds don't increase whilst we are waiting for races or games to complete.

We can lay so that our liabilities are less than our bet winnings if we hit all winners.
Whilst we are doing that, we can lay to recover all lay losses so far, plus a profit on top.
Remember that that we will be trading a free bet, so the bet loss will be zero.
Hit a loser, and we have profit.
Hit all winners and we have profit.
Stake our lays to suit the terms of the refund and we can profit from each type of offer described above.

That is the basics of method One  - - - - choose runners for our accumulator with time between each event so that we can lay them one at a time.
Method 2 introduces an element of risk, but I have traded method 2 without a free bet whilst testing my spreadsheet.
I had my ups and downs whilst doing that, and came out slightly in front after a few trades.
I made mistakes that caused me red trades, so a learning curve was involved in a couple of those trades.

This is method 2 :-
Occasionally, the bookie offer will force us to trade football games that all kick off at or around the same time, such as Champions League or Premiership games.
An offer might be " Bet 5 x 10 on Premiership games this weekend, get a free 5 fold accumulator for next weekend's Championship games."
Betfair were particularly fond of that type of offer for a while.
Other similar offers from Betfair involved Champions League games.
If the free 5 timer involves games that do not have 5 games that kick off with time between those games, we need to bet 5 teams that all kick off at the same time and then look to lay them at lower odds "In Play" as goals are scored.
If our teams don't score and get into a winning position, we cannot trade out so we may have to take the hit of the cost of the qualifying bets.
To trade the 4 or 5 games of our free accumulator "In Play" all at the same time, we need to use the balanced staking of Dutching.
I have a "Dutching" spreadsheet for that, but this is not really Dutching as a loss in one game is not deducted before commission is taken off profit in another of our games.
If we were Dutching a single market such as Correct Score in a single game, losses would be deducted from profit before we pay commission.
As we will be laying a team 4 or 5 different games, we will pay commission on each of those games.
The sheet is simple enough, and uses the balanced staking of Dutching to get the correct staking so that our profit or loss is very similar for each of our lays.

The good news if we are forced to use this Dutching method is that if we are lucky, this kind of trade can pay extremely well.
If all of our teams have all been in a winning position, - - - a goal or 2 in front, but then the other team score to get the score to a Draw or have our team losing by a goal,  we can have a good profit from what becomes a successful lay of our now, losing team.
If 2 of our teams get into a losing position after we have layed them, that is even better news - - - Congratulations, it's our birthday . . Lol.

Ideally, we would be laying our teams when they are in a winning position with their lay odds somewhere below odds of 1.2.
Lay 34.48 at odds of 1.16 and we have liabilities of minus -5.52.
If that team then gets into a Draw or losing position, we have a successful lay of plus 34.48, less 5% commission = plus 32.76.
Be lucky enough to put 2 of those together and profits really start to take off.
Trades like that are unlikely to come along very often, but anything can happen in a football match.
I've come extremely close to hitting one of those whilst doing just a few trades.
I missed it by a few seconds.
A goal was scored whilst I was placing my lay - - - - It was as close as that.

Once I put another video or 2 together, this "Trade a Bookie Accumulator Refund or Bonus" package will be available on my web site.
If you would like the spreadsheets now, just e-mail me and we can arrange your 10 PayPal payment and I'll send the spreadsheet file by e-mail with links to a couple of videos to get you started.

I have come to look forward to these accumulator refunds.
They are a little bit different from other refunds, maybe a bit more of a challenge, mainly due to the possibility of our lay odds getting bigger, but easy enough to do once you get used to them.
They also add to the profit total at the end of the month.
As always, good luck with your trades, especially your accumulators if you have a go at them, Howard.

9th March 2014.  Zero %, 3% and 5% commission rates.
Ladbrokes recently opened a betting exchange to compete with Betfair, Betdaq, etc.
Laddies have an offer at present of zero commission for a month if we open an exchange account during March, plus a boatload of free bets if we continue to bet and lay with them.
As you know, liquidity can be a problem if we are not using Betfair, but with Betfair's commission rate at 5% and the other exchanges some way below that, it can pay better to take worse odds, but at a more favourable commission rate.

I've put a simple spreadsheet together to demonstrate that.
Use this link to download the free spreadsheet.
If the file opens as "Read only" or cells B1, D2 and G2 appear to be locked, just re-name the file and it should then work ok for you.

The spreadsheet allows us to input any stake size and 2 commission rates.
It then shows the profit from a bet or a lay using that stake size for the bet or the lay over a range of odds from 1.94 up to 50.0.
Profits after commission deductions are shown for the 2 commission rates that we input, plus zero commission.

We can now see which of our 3 exchanges pays best.
It may pay better if we take less favourable odds, but at a lower commission rate.
The screenshot below shows the lower end of the odds in the sheet.
I have entered a bet or lay stake of 10 at cell B1.
If we look at the profit at odds of 2.0, we can see that a 10 bet or lay will return a profit of 9.50 in columns F & G after 5% commission deductions.
At 3% commission in columns D & E, we can afford to bet 2 ticks lower at 1.98 and still show a bigger profit at cell D9 of 9.51.
With zero commission, we can bet 5 ticks lower for an identical 9.50 profit at odds of 1.95 at cell B6. 

If you are placing a single bet or lay, or betting with a bookie and laying in an exchange, it may be worth considering an alternative to Betfair.
These other exchanges are offering very attractive commission rates.
Close odds of Bet 2.0 and Lay 2.02, may not pay better than slightly worse looking odds elsewhere.
Taking advantage of the most competitive commission rates can add an unexpected little bit extra to profits.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.

1st January 2014.  Trading Betdaq odds.
I seem to be using Betdaq more and more these days.
Gaps in the Betdaq odds is still a problem, but with a bit of thought, we can squeeze the best out of the Betdaq odds.
Tonight, I had a free Betfair bet on NBA Basketball.
I was looking for some big odds to trade, so looked at the biggest available in tonight's games.
The free bet "Bet odds" that I was looking to trade were 7.0 (lay odds were 7.4), but the Betdaq odds looked really bad with bet odds at 6.0, and lay at 8.6.
At first glance, that looks like a complete disaster, but I decided to bet at the 7.0 on offer in Betfair and then offered to lay at 7.8 in Betdaq,  which was some way below the Betdaq lay odds of 8.6, but some way above the current bet odds in Betfair of 7.4.

My bet of 7.0 was matched immediately and my lay in Betdaq at 7.8 was matched very quickly, probably after about 10 or 15 seconds.
Bet at 7.0 and lay at 7.8 may still look pretty bad, but as you can see from the screenshot of my spreadsheet below, I still came out with a profit of 7.12 whatever the result from my 10 free bet trade.
70% profit from a free bet trade is certainly ok with me.
In the screenshot below, we can see that if I hit a winner with my free 10 bet, I have winnings of 57 after 5% commission at column G, and lay liabilities of minus 49.88 at cell E15 for a profit of 7.12.
If I hit a loser, I have a successful lay of 7.34 at cell B15, which gives a profit of 7.12 after deducting 3% commission.
My bet loss is zero as my bet was free.
After making this trade, I deducted the cost of my qualifying bets, which left me with an overall profit on the total trades combined.
This Exchange to Exchange spreadsheet is available on my Bookie Refunds web page.
The file contains spreadsheets for trading Exchange to Exchange qualifying bets and also free bets.
Commission on both sides of the trade is built into the calculations.
Commission rates can be reversed in the sheets so that they can be used for betting and laying Betfair to Betdaq or the other way around.

The point I am making here is that even though the Betdaq odds may look unacceptable, if we look at what is on offer in Betfair and offer something a tick or 2 better in Betdaq, we can quite often get matched in Betdaq without any problems.
Bot traders will be looking for the slightest of edges between Betfair and Betdaq odds and will soon latch on to the nice attractive odds that we offer.
Other traders will also be looking for the better odds that we offer in Betdaq, rather than just relying on what is available in Betfair.
Providing that the odds that we offer give us a good trade, we can go ahead and offer what look like very attractive odds compared to what is available in Betfair.
I find that sports such as basketball may have gaps in the Betfair market and quite often may not have odds available in Betdaq that are close to what we see in Betfair.
We can often get around that problem by offering odds a tick or 2 better in one exchange than in the other.
With commission at 3%, Betdaq is always worth looking at.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.

Contact me
Copyright H. Hutchinson 2019 All rights reserved
Copying text or any other kind of content from a web site is a criminal offence.

How copyright protects your creative work


Intellectual property



Earlier posts all on one web page.

Exchange refunds and bonus payments.
Where am I in the Betfair queue ?
Accept profit ? Cashout  in Betfair.
After timing, or having it both ways ?
End of laying demonstration.
Start of the 1000 laying challenge.
4 ways of betting and 4 ways of laying.
The 1000 Laying challenge
Testing Betting and Laying staking Plans.
3 Lay Staking Plans profit / loss comparison.
Lay Of The Week and "Both Sides" Win and Place markets.
2 Staking plan spreadsheets added, and some cash lays.
Progressive staking methods compared . . . . Percentage of bank, level stakes, etc.
The 5F "Dash" - - - -  Epsom Derby Day 15:15 tomorrow . . . . . and my claim to fame.

Percent of bank staking for Roulette.
Percent of Bank Lay Liabilities and Percentage of Bank Bet Profit Target staking plans.
Percentage of Bank staking plan.

Earlier posts all on one web page.
Percentage of Bank staking plan
Existing bookie customer - - - - risk free refund profit.
Regular monthly profits from basic trades
Cheltenham etc. analysis
Both Sides" trading
Betdaq to change ownership
Trade a bookie Accumulator Free Bet
Staking Plans web page up and running
Bet and lay the same runner using a single stake
Betdaq or Betfair ?
How to trade a Betfair Fixed Odds free treble
Betfair and Betdaq - - refunds, bonuses and free bets
Exchange to exchange free bets and bonuses.
"Lose Only" and other bookie refunds
Trade a bookie's accumulator bonus offer
Betfair Fixed Odds - - - What a rip off ?
Betting and Laying trebles - without using Betfair Multiples
Lay an accumulator to a profit target
The John Smith's Cup at York
Bookie "IF" refunds
Euro 2012 Free Money

Earlier posts all on one web page.
Damaged repaired after laying of a winner at odds of 100.0
Lay the 5F "Dash", Epsom Derby Day
The time of year when horse racing draw advantages really come into play
Lay The Draw (football) and "Back Fitting"
2 new Dutch and Hedge spreadsheets
New Laying web site . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Videos for Dutching to Break Even on some runners.
Dutching to "Break Even" spreadsheets
Horse racing markets F/C, RFC, and W/O
Arbing or Arbitrage
Laying an Each Way bet.
The best programme on television
Allowing for bookie turnover
Betting almost everything in Betfair
Trading Betfair Multiples refunds
Trading an All Red screen
Dutching and Hedging with balanced stakes
Bet First or Lay First demonstration video
Lay the winning team in a football match, a Dutching strategy
Trading Correct Score with 0-0 insurance using a bookie refund

Earlier posts all on one web page.
Tradinmg 0-0
Bookie refunds and bonus payments
Videos for Dutching 2 Betfair markets
Dutching and Hedging Correct Score markets
Betfair starting price
Betfair cash refunds on accumulators
Laying in bits
mopping-up again
Dutch 2 markets Excel spreadsheet
Bookie limits on stakes
Videos for free bet trading
Dutching 2 markets such as Correct Score and Match Odds

Earlier posts all on one web page.
Bot and videos.
Bot testing in Betfair horse racing markets.
Bot up and running.
Live Betfair odds, Betting Bots and Triggered Betting.
An analysis of my January 2010 trades.
Betfair Racing Midweek Mania doubles and trebles refunds.
Multiplie winnings from a Betfair treble.  Betfair Racing Midweek Mania refunds.
Betfair Racing Midweek Mania refunds.  Multiplied winnings from a Multiple with a refund ?
Dutching and Hedging Match Odds on Betfair.

Earlier posts all on one web page.
First 20 minutes Correct Score
Match Odds refunds.
Red Card refunds.
Roulette.  The system's working well, please send more money
A successful Roulette staking plan ?
Conditional Refund spreadsheet.
Bookie refunds
Bookie refunds on 0-0 scores, Anytime goal scorers etc.
Arbitrage (Arbs), Bingo and Roulette.

Under 2.5 Goals strategy.

Earlier posts all on one web page.
Under 1.5 Goals
Web site community for serious Betfair traders.
Open Golf
Lay Betfair Place markets
Horse racing Place markets
Trade 0-0 in football matches.
Lay the draw with insurance in football matches.

Earlier posts all on one web page
Betfair Unders and Overs
Bet first or Lay first.
Half Time Scores market
Laying the Betfair Under and Over football markets.