Archive of activity to
December 2013. Exchange refunds and bonus payments.
If you are a regular user of Betfair, it cannot have escaped
your notice that Betfair appear to be desperately trying to
I've been a regular Betfair user for quite a few years.
Betfair used to offer an occasional free bet, refund, or bonus
payment, but such concessions were few and far between.
Look at what is happening now.
Over the past few months, Betfair has been offering existing
customers more and more free bets and bonus payments.
Over the Christmas and New Year period, December 26th to January
5th, a range of daily bonus payments and free bets are available
via Betfair's "11 Days Of Win-ter" offers.
Nothing like this has been seen in Betfair before, so what's
going on ?
We can only
assume that Betfair turnover is down.
The Ladbrokes take-over of Betdaq must be having a significant
effect on Betfair turnover, otherwise, why encourage customers
with increased offers of extra winnings and free bets ?
This is good news for Betfair
customers of course.
Any bookie offer of a percentage added to our winnings, a refund
of losses, or a free bet as an incentive to place a few bets,
offers an opportunity of a risk free trade with guaranteed
I have a range of spreadsheets available for bookie refunds and
exchange refunds available on
my Bookie Refunds web page.
Those spreadsheet files contain links to video descriptions of
Occasionally, I receive e-mail
enquiries asking how to make money from trading.
I always suggest bookie New Customer sign-up free bets as a way
to build up a betting bank, and after that
as the next step,
the on-going bookie free bets, refunds and bonus payments that
are available to existing bookie customers.
A write-up about that lives here in a previous post, dated
April 20th 2013.
My dad died about 20 years ago.
He enjoyed betting on horse races all his life.
When he was alive, he wouldn't have believed that one day
bookies would offer free bets, but here we are today with free
bets and bonuses being offered all over the place as Internet
bookies compete for our custom.
Has there ever been a better time to be a punter ? - - - -
- - I don't think so.
To put it bluntly, in my opinion, there is now no excuse for
Follow this link to
a free spreadsheet for keeping track of your monthly
profits, . . . . . or losses.
A video on that web page describes that free P & L spreadsheet.
A few years ago, an owner of a
company that I worked for told me that to be successful, we
don't need to invent something new.
All that we need to do is copy what others are already doing.
The wave of recent Betfair refunds and bonus payments that
started in September may be just the start of a tsunami.
If you aren't already riding the crest of this on-going Betfair
wave, plus other bookie refund offers, maybe it's time to get
If we are really lucky, Betdaq will up the stakes . . . . Lol.
already offer a zero commission
daily horse race and weekly football match of course, besides 3%
All very nice.
The beauty of free bets, refunds,
and added bonus trades is that they break all "normal" trading
It doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser.
It doesn't matter if our bet odds are smaller than our lay odds.
Stake correctly, and we can have guaranteed winnings with zero
risk to our cash.
Stake correctly and our profits will always go up and never
We are trading a mathematical certainty of course when we trade
bookie sign-up free bets, and bookies free bets and refunds that
are available to existing bookie customers,
P.S. Note that not all bookie refund offers can be traded
to guaranteed winnings, but there are refund offers every week
that offer mathematical certainty trades.
With a bit of practice, we can easily identify the better
If we use a spreadsheet to show the staking, we don't need to
worry about the maths of course.
December 2013. Where am I in the Betfair queue ?
When we place a bet or lay in Betfair, it would be nice if there
was some indication of our position in the queue, so that we
have some idea of how near we are to getting matched.
I have suggested to Betfair that they already have the
technology to show us how much has been matched, and how much is
Betfair also know exactly when our bet or lay gets matched, so
with those bits of information, I imagine that they could put
something in place that would update and tell us how much is in
front of us in the queue.
So far, we don't have that information, but when we place a bet
or lay, we can work out how much needs to get matched before our
bet or lay will get taken.
Of course, while we are waiting to get matched, other Betfair
users may cancel their bets or lays, which will move us nearer
to the front of the waiting queue.
If you are not familiar with how to work out "roughly" when you
will get matched, this is how you can do it immediately after
placing your bet or lay :-
- In your Betfair market,
click on the graph icon to the left of your selection to
bring up the graph, plus the "Traded and available" figures.
- Pull down the slider on the
left so that you can see where the blue and pink meet and
you can see what has been matched in the right hand column.
- Now, against the odds that
you are hoping to get matched, note the Waiting figure in
blue or pink, and the Matched figure.
- Your bet or lay will be part
of the blue or pink figure.
- Multiply the Waiting figure
by 2, and add the "Traded" or Matched figure.
The "Traded" figure is an addition of the bets and lays that
have been matched so far.
- When that total "Traded"
amount appears in the Matched column on the right, you stake
should have been matched.
If other Betfair users cancel their stakes, you will get
matched before that amount is matched.
In Match Odds, Chelsea are available to
Bet at odds 3.15
and lay at 3.2.
We decide to offer to bet £10 at the lay odds of 3.2.
We place our bet and it joins the queue to get matched at 3.2.
We click the Graph icon and scroll down to see on the pink
highlighted row for odds
3.2 that £3,227 is waiting to get matched, and £69,164
has already been matched at odds of 3.2.
Now get your calculator out : 2 x 3,227 = 6454 + 69,164 =
Now, to some extent, we are able to see how far we are from
the front of the queue.
If no-one cancels their bet at odds of 3.2 we will get matched
when the "Traded" figure on the right gets to £75618.
If anyone cancels, we will get matched earlier.
Anyone joining the queue will be behind us of course.
Note that the figures shown will only update if you exit
what you see for Chelsea and then go back in.
We can do that easily by taking a look at the other team or the
Draw, and then looking again at the Chelsea graph and figures.
I monitor my trades in this way
It's a bit rough and ready, but better than waiting with no
indication at all of how much is being traded and what is
happening to my trade.
Good luck with your odds movements, Howard.
October 2013. Accept profit ? in Betfair.
For some time now, Betfair have been offering us an exit to
profit or loss on the normal Betfair screens.
That appears to the right hand side, just above the market and
is an offer to hedge our trade for us at the odds that are
In my opinion, it is best to ignore this facility, and just
trade as normal, so if it appears I usually get rid of it by
clicking the "x" beside it.
I find this facility a hindrance as the "Accept" button is very
close to the Refresh button for refreshing the odds.
I had an enquiry this week from a
spreadsheet customer who was trading a free bet with a Best Odds
The odds for his horse had drifted.
Betfair offered to hedge his lay for a profit of over £5 within
Betfair, and he was unsure whether to take that profit on his
His reasoning was that he could
then lay his free bet a 2nd time, very close to Race Time,
knowing that if the bookie odds were also bigger, he would be
paid out at the bigger S.P odds if the horse won.
If it lost, he would still have his successful lay.
Here is an example of that with
some nice easy odds and stakes, and assuming that the bet stake
IS returned with any winnings.
Suppose we have a free £10 bet at odds of 2.0 with our bookie
and we have also layed £10 at 2.0 in Betfair.
The free bet costs nothing, so if we hit a winner we win £10.
If it loses, we have a £10 successful lay, less commission.
The Betfair bet odds drift to 3.0, so Betfair offer us an exit
for a profit of £3.33 before commission.
If the bookie odds also drift to 3.0, we could take that £3.33
and lay again at 3.0 and come out with £10 win or lose, plus the
That may appear to be all ok as
the Best Odds Guarantee bookie pays us out at the bigger odds,
BUT, what if we hit a winner and the bookie odds don't follow
the Betfair odds ?
We still have our £3.33 profit from the first lay and bet within
Betfair, but win or lose profit from our 2nd lay at the higher
odds close to Race Time will depend on what happens to the
As we all know, bookie odds don't always move as much as Betfair
We may find ourselves with a bet
at odds of 2.0 that has drifted a little or even not moved at
all, and lay odds that are now much worse than 2.0.
Whatever the lay odds close to race Time, we would need to take
them to complete our original lay and bet trade.
That could cost us more than the small profit that Betfair may
I was caught out by this quite some time ago and I've also had
another look at it several times since.
In my experience, it is far better to stick with the original
trade that I was happy with, and ignore what Betfair are
The example above is very simplistic for demonstration purposes.
Being tempted by a small profit that appears to be a small
unexpected bonus can easily chip away some of our original
profit rather than adding to it.
Ignoring Betfair's offer may also save you from getting your
calculator out and wracking your brains in the heat of battle.
For what it's worth, that's my view.
For information, the odds of my enquirer's horse stayed the same
with his bookie, but the Betfair lay odds didn't come back down.
He would therefore have been worse off if he had been tempted by
the Betfair Hedge "Accept ?" offer.
2013. After timing, or having it both ways ?
As described below, the lay tips that I have been paying for
have slowed almost to no tips at all.
One problem has been that tips have been eliminated by
non-runner rules applied by the tipster :-
In draw affected races, if there are 2 or more non-runners, that
becomes a "No lay race".
Saturday, there were 3 lay tips, 2 at Chester and one at
All 3 races were judged to be draw affected by the tipster.
All 3 races had 2 or more non-runners, so became "No Lay" races
according to the tipster's rules.
All 3 lays tips hit a loser, but despite the rules that I, as a
customer was supposed to work to, the tipster claimed these 3
lays as winning tips the following day.
You and I cannot be expected to show a profit from that kind of
Personally, I subscribed to this tipping service specifically
for the lay tips, which had supposedly hit over 30 consecutive
losers around the time that I started my subscription.
I'm not happy about the
after-timing over the weekend, and the tipster ignoring his own
He cannot have it both ways.
These tips either follow the rules or they don't.
We cannot possibly be expected to lay something if the tipster's
own rules clearly indicate that a tip becomes a no-goer.
To prove my point, here is a quote from an e-mail I received
from this tipping/ratings service dated August 2nd :-
"If two or more horses come out of a race in which we have a
perceived draw bias, it's a no-bet race as far as I am
concerned, especially when it comes to laying one."
The rules are clear enough, so 2
or more non-runners in the 3 Saturday races made all 3 races
I'm not happy about those 3 lay tips being claimed as good tips
the following day, despite the non-runners in 3 draw affected
It's back to my own personal lay tips for me.
Perhaps paying for tips is just a lazy way of betting or laying.
Surely, we get far more pleasure out of our own tips coming
A tipster is only as good as his last tip.
Those last 3 lay tips were a bit naughty.
Apologies for moaning, and good luck with your own selections,
2013. End of laying demonstration.
Once again, the laying tips that I have been following have
My subscription to Post Racing began on July 10th and renewed on
Following the lay recommendations, I layed 17 runners between
July 11th and Aug 9th.
From August 10th to today, August 24th, there have been
just 4 recommended lays.
Members were advised today that due to rainfall, the change to
the going means that the ratings provided may be unreliable.
I haven't been following the ratings, - - - - - just the lay
recommendations which I assume will dry up as the ground gets
However, on the
plus side, my laying demonstration of 4 different laying
spreadsheet methods, showed what happens if we hit a winner
early in our laying sequence, and later on, what happens if we
hit 2 winners close together.
Follow this link
to view the comparison of 4 different staking plans
The method that I used "Lay to a
Percentage Liability of a Profit Target" proved to be the method
with the lowest lay liabilities, and the most profitable for the
odds that I layed.
If I hadn't increased my Profit
Target after getting half way to my £200 profit target, my
profit would have beaten the other 3 laying methods by a bigger
The screenshot below shows what would have happened if I had not
reset the profit target to £200 at cell K18 on Aug 7th.
Level stakes showed a profit of less than 2 points after
commission, but this method shows a profit slightly better that
2 points after commission, assuming £40 per point as shown at
cell F4 below :-
With K18 set back to
£200 in my laying demonstration, the profit at I26 (Eye 26) and
in my Betfair account was plus £77.13.
Probably just as important as the profit was the level of lay
liabilities throughout the 21 lays.
Laying at level stakes for instance, produced lay liabilities
that were far bigger.
With a set liability, liabilities were minus £80 from August
11th to August 6th, and minus £90 after an increase on Aug 6th,
again far more than most of the liabilities shown above, and
also for less profit by August 17th.
This method of
"Laying to a Percentage of a Profit Target" produced a better
return on investment (column M), a better profit (column I
(Eye)), less risk (column F), than the other 3 methods
demonstrated, and better than a level stakes profit.
I hope that using a source of lay tips, plus my cash, has shown
which method comes out best, with no after-timing or cheating
From my point of view, I am happy to have come out at the other
end not having lost my shirt . . . . Lol.
Onwards and upwards. . . . . . Once again, I'm now looking for
my another source of some decent lays,
2013. Start of the £1000 laying challenge.
At last. Today we saw the first lay of the £1000 laying
The first lay tip hit a loser at Ripon.
I started 2
laying sequences with this first lay, and
have put a web page together to show the progress of my lays.
Follow this link to
view the progress of my £1000 Challenge lays.
Putting those results on view may encourage me to stick with it.
The lay tips that I have been using
to compare 4 different lay staking plans seem to have dried up,
so I have put another web page together showing 4 lay staking
plans with some other lays that I am putting my cash on.
These tips are from the member's daily newsletter ratings
There may not be a lay recommendations every day, and also there
are rules to follow concerning non-runners and going conditions,
which may eliminate some of the tips.
Follow this link
to view the comparison of 4 different staking plans using
ratings service daily
I have put my cash on these lays, staking with my liability set
to 40% of a £200 profit target.
As my profits grow, what is left still to win of the profit
target decreases, so my stakes go down.
When I hit a winner using that method, the loss should cause
less financial damage than other methods, unless I hit a series
of consecutive winners.
Using this staking method, my profit may be reduced slightly
when compared to other methods, but I prefer staking with a
little less risk.
Hopefully, this staking method will reduce the risk a bit for
Today, my profit reached the half way point - - - - £100
of my target of £200.
The staking plan has
reduced my stakes
quite a lot, so for my next
lay I will reset my bank to increase my staking and hopefully
increase profits further if I hit more losers with my lays.
To view the progress of my comparison of 4 lay staking methods
follow this link.
Now that we have a few results to look at, we can see which if
the 4 staking plans loses the least when we hit a winner, and
which produces the most profit from a good set of results.
As always, good luck with your trading, Howard.
2013. 4 ways of betting and 4 ways of laying.
The £1000 Challenge was due to start on Monday July 29th, but so
far there hasn't been a tip.
Our man "Ron", is waiting for a short priced runner to be rated
badly by his selection method.
The going also needs to be correct. . . . . . I assume
unsuitable for his selection.
As you know, we have had a long hot spell and now the monsoons
A bit of patience is required whilst we await our first lay
I don't mind waiting.
It is better to wait for a genuine potential loser rather than
just going ahead and tipping something for all the wrong
While we are waiting, I'm still doing my normal trades of
Once the lays start, I hope to put a web page up so that you can
have a laugh at my expense if I lose a few quid chasing my pot
My intention is to set off several laying sequences, staggered
so that if I hit a winner with one runner, the other sequences
will remain unaffected.
Challenge web page will show the progression of my separate
That's the theory, but if we hit winners, that will be more
expensive than just running a single sequence.
I hope I can stand the strain . . . Lol.
Today, I put 2 spreadsheet packages
Plans web page.
These 2 files each contain 4 separate spreadsheet staking plans
- - - 4 different ways of betting, and 4 ways of laying.
The idea is to input some results from past selections, or
better still, paper trade some races so that we can see which
staking method pays best and which proves to be the least risky
for our selection method.
Bank sizes and Profit Targets can be altered in these
spreadsheet staking plans, so a bit of flexibility is available.
I've added a video to compare the betting sheets, with a
suggestion at the end for reducing stakes and maybe extracting a
bit more profit.
I haven't put a laying video together for the 4 laying methods
as all 8 sheets have a very similar layout.
I felt I would be repeating myself, and putting a video together
takes me quite a while - - recording, editing and uploading.
I'll put something in here when the lays start coming for both
the £1000 Challenge lays and the other comparison that I am
Those lay tips also dried up a while ago.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.
2013. The £1000 Laying challenge. . . . . now with a video
description of a spreadsheet for the staking.
The tipping service that I subscribed to last week gives
occasional horses to lay.
The last run of successful lays ended at lay number 33, when
that tip hit a winner.
The chap who puts up these tips intends to expand his lay
tipping and proposes a £1000 challenge, starting in late July.
The idea is to start with a small
lay stake and keep re-investing all winnings from successful
lays, with the intention of getting the profit up to £1000
before making a withdrawal.
That is his "Rolling Lays" Challenge, - - - - sticking with it
when the stakes get a bit huge, with the risk of busting out for
In line with that, I've put a spreadsheet together that allows
us to extract some profit at any point so that this need not be
an "All or nothing" exercise.
Using the staking shown in this spreadsheet, we can stake to
extract our initial lay stake after the first successful lay,
and extract more profit at any point after that whilst we try
for our grand of profit.
The £1000 Challenge may only be a bit of fun for small stakes, but
may be worth trying.
If we can hit a string of successful lays and get some BIG
stakes, ( - -
- - - We should be so lucky ! ),
it will be interesting to see what
happens when a boatload of punters all try to lay the same
In preparation for that, I've included a spreadsheet for laying
at different odds if we cannot get all our stake matched and
need to place several lays at different odds to get all our
This is all speculation at present, but I'm certainly looking
forward to chucking a tenner or 2 at it . . . Lol, to see what
A description of my "Rolling Lays" spreadsheet is now on
Plans web page.
this link for a video description of the spreadsheet.
If "Ron" can repeat his excellent
run of 32 successful lays, there should be a bit of profit there
somewhere - - hopefully a grand - - Lol.
Good luck with that if you have a go at it, Howard.
2013. Testing Betting and Laying staking Plans.
At present, I'm testing betting staking plans as well as lay
staking plans, using my cash in Betfair.
I now have have 4 spreadsheet betting staking plans as well as
the 4 spreadsheet lay staking plans described in my previous
The comparison of lays that I am doing on a web page is rather
slow moving as the tips are a bit few and far between.
To test my betting spreadsheets, I
have subscribed to a tipping service that provides both bet and
This 2nd source provides tips at various prices.
These bet and lay tips have done ok for me so far.
Also, after paper trading some
lays for about 3 months, I have started to lay my own selections
which are all at BIG prices, mostly at lay odds of 10.0 or
To sum up, I am now laying tips from 3 different sources, - - -
my own lays, the lays shown on my
lays comparison web page
and lays and bets from a £££ paid tipping service.
The 4 betting staking plans that
I have put together are more or less the betting equivalent of
the laying staking plans.
These 8 spreadsheet staking plans will soon be available
Plans web page.
I will also combine all 4 betting sheets as a package and
all 4 laying sheets will be combined as a package.
That will take time as I need to put some videos together.
Using staking plans for my bets
and lays isn't something that I've done very often before, but I
am certainly finding it interesting.
Although my bets and lays have had their ups and downs as I have
hit winners and losers, I am in profit today on all except the
one on my
lays comparison web page.
If following a staking plan is
new to you, I am hoping that these plans allow us to select a
plan that suits how we want to proceed.
If you prefer a bit of caution as I do, you may prefer to limit
your bet losses or lay liabilities, or work with the decreasing
liabilities of betting or laying towards a Profit Target..
If you have a method that produces a lot of winners perhaps at
short prices, you may prefer to compound your profits by betting
or laying a percentage of your bank.
That is a very well known method for growing a bank of course,
but if you have losing trades, perhaps recovery of losses may be
slower than a Profit Target method.
Profits may grow quicker whilst we hit winners, but recovery
from losses may be slower.
My laying of horses at BIG odds
introduces another element - - - big liabilities, but hopefully
with lots of small profits in between hitting the occasional
winner with a lay.
I'm using a profit target staking plan for those lays so that
liabilities may not cause too much damage (I hope) when the
inevitable winner comes along.
Whether we are betting or laying, what we really need to know
about staking plans is - - - - which method will suit our odds,
our strike rate, and which will cope best with recovery from a
losing trade or 2.
Testing these sheets using my cash should clear that up a little
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.
2013. 3 Lay Staking Plans
profit / loss comparison.
Today, I've put some odds into 4 different Excel spreadsheet
staking plans so that we can compare the profit and loss of each
one to see which performs best.
I put the results of those staking plans on a web page today,
and I'll be updating that with more results over the next week
As you may have read
in my previous post below, over the past couple of weeks, I've
been following a
"Lay Of The Day"
tipping service and laying those
tips in Betfair, with my cash.
That has given me some genuine Lay odds
that I have actually
put my money on, to use for
Follow this link
to view the comparison of the
4 staking plans and see
where the tips come from.
Using odds that I have actually layed eliminates any
after-timing or cheating that may make things look better or
worse for any one of the staking plans.
As I lay more
runners, I will be updating
those 4 staking plans on that web page.
These are the 4 staking plans that I am comparing :-
- Lay to a set liability.
(The odds and stakes shown in this one carry my cash in
- Lay to a
Liability equal to a Percentage of a Profit Target.
- Lay a Percentage of a Bank.
- Level stakes.
To start all 4 staking plans at
the same level, I've set each one up with a lay liability of
-£40 for the first lay, if it had
hit a winner.
The Lay Of The Day tips hit a winner with the 4th lay, so profit
and loss in all 4 staking plans looks pretty level up to that
After that 4th race, profit and loss differs quite a bit, so to
put some sense into the returns, I have added a "Percentage
Return On Investment" column to each staking plan.
Return On Investment is
Profit or Loss expressed as a percentage of Total Stakes (%ROI).
We can now compare actual profit or loss and the % Return On
Investment throughout each spreadsheet for perhaps a clearer
view of the merits of each of the 3 staking methods.
I have been laying these tips in
Betfair using the Set Liability method, but so far, that has not
been the most profitable of the 4.
Before I put this comparison together, I expected Level Stakes
to come out best, but that isn't the case so far.
With only 7 lays
(hitting 5 losers and 2 winners),
it's early days, but the "Lay to a Liability equal to a
Percentage of a Profit Target" method is still in profit whilst
the other 3 are each showing a significant loss.
Perhaps a few successful lays may see those rolls reversed. . .
. . We will see.
If these tips hit some winners and things look bad, I'll stop
laying them of course, but at least we'll still be able to see
which of the 3 performed best under those conditions.
If I need to make an exit, I won't hide anything . . . . . . I
have nothing to hide . . . . . You will have all the gory
At worst I'll be able to put the blame on poor tipping, or blame
myself for not researching the past results of those tips
sufficiently before putting my money on them.
If I'm lucky, I might even make a profit,.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.
2013. Lay Of The Week and "Both Sides" Win and Place
The Lay Of The Day tips that I have been using
to demonstrate a lay staking
plan have been a bit slow.
So slow that they have almost become a "Lay Of The Week" tipping
Never mind - - - - - if there isn't anything worth laying,
I don't mind waiting around for a while whilst we await the
haven't been idle whilst I've been been waiting for a few lay
I've been tidying up a few spreadsheets ready for upload to
Plans web page.
I've just uploaded a Betting staking plan - - - - "Bet to
Add a Set Percentage to a Betting Bank".
The theory behind that staking
plan is compound interest.
We all know how Compound Interest can mount up, so why not use
that for a few favourable results if we get a bit lucky and hit
some winning bets ?
Using this method, we stake to a Profit Target each time . . . .
The Profit Target is a percentage of our betting bank.
We might set our staking to increase our bank by 10% each time
that we hit a winner, or 20% or more, etc..
The effect of doing that is that big odds carry a smaller stake
than short odds, but whatever odds we bet, the profit is the
For example, to increase a £100 bank by 10%, we would bet for a
profit target of £10.
Bet odds of 2.0 (evens) would need a stake of £10, but at odds
of 11.0 (10/1) would need a stake of only £1.
If you have a selection method that uses big odds or odds some
way above 2.0, this staking method may be of interest.
Hit enough winners and profits may "compound up" in a similar
way to compound interest.
That's the theory, but losing bets will slow things down a bit.
I have another staking plan in
the pipeline, just awaiting a video, and then after that, I hope
to put another "Both Sides" method up.
"Both Sides" if you are not already familiar with what I did a
while back, is betting and laying the same runner, but using
only a single stake, rather than a bet and a lay.
To do that, we run a bet staking plan and a separate
lay staking plan.
We then look at the 2 stakes involved, take one from the other
and stake the difference on the bigger side of the 2.
For example, if our bet stake for our runner is £1 and our lay
stake is £3, we would take one stake from the other and stake £2
on the lay side.
If the bet stake was £4 and the lay stake £1, we would bet £3 on
The bets could be with a bookie or in an exchange.
Something else that I am going to
look at again is combining horse racing markets.
A couple of
years ago, I built a range of
spreadsheets for combining different horse racing markets,
so this kind of thing isn't new to me. . . . . I'll just be
taking another look at it.
I already have spreadsheets that combine "Without the Fav", RFC,
F/C, Win, and Place, each with another horse racing market.
I don't think I bothered with A versus B, but I did use A - B
successfully to trade a bookie refund offer 3 years ago in the
2010 Cheltenham Festival meeting.
The offer, from Blue Square (now taken over by Betfair) was
"Place a £1 bet and if my horse beats the Bookie's selected
horse, I get a £5
The strategy was :-
Look in Betfair at the A - B markets for the race concerned.
Find the bookie's horse in the A - B market and bet the other
horse with the bookie.
If the bookie's horse was the "A" horse, Lay the B - A in the A -
B market - - that is lay my horse to beat the bookies horse.
Balance the staking and I had a small guaranteed, zero risk
profit whatever happened in the race.
The 3 possible outcomes of that are shown below, with some
Note that the refunded free bet is included in those returns, so
if that happened, those wouldn't be the final profit.
Lose + A-B
Lose + B-A
Win + B-A
My bet and lay
odds were bet £1 on my horse at odds of 11.0 with the bookie,
lay B--A at 2.54 in Betfair, commission at 4.8%.
If the bookie horse won, (the Lose + A--B outcome), the profit
of £0.91 would be a return of 91% profit on my initial £1
A small profit but an excellent return on my £1 investment.
- - - - - You won't get interest like that at your local
Potential profits make look small, but every bit adds up at the end of the
Unfortunately, I haven't seen a similar offer for over 3 years.
Maybe bookies are a bit smarter now than they used to be . . . .
2013. 2 Staking plan spreadsheets added, and some cash
I've now added 2 more staking plans for laying to
Plans web page :-
Lay a Percentage of a Profit Target,
Lay to a Set Lay Liability.
Video descriptions for those are
also available on that web page.
For the past couple of weeks, I've been doing some lays using
I have been using the
Lay to a Set Lay
Liability spreadsheet, with the liability set to
if I hit a winner.
It is early days, but so far I have hit 1 winner in 6 lays.
I don't have a lay every day.
The biggest lay odds that I have layed have been 11.0 and the shortest odds so far 1.99.
So far, I am £17.70 in profit
including my minus
Follow this link to see where
my tips come from and the progress of my lays.
Eventually I hope to use the odds that I have layed to do a
video comparison of the different lay staking plans that I now
If I can manage a decent profit, we will then be able to see
which works best with the genuine odds that I have layed.
If I make a loss, maybe we can see which staking method loses
the least . . . . Lol.
The horses that I am laying are Lay Of The Day tips.
If I can get far enough into profit, I may chuck some of my own
lays in as well.
profits grow, my strategy is to increase my liabilities by £10
each time that I reach my current lay liability of profit :-
Starting with a set liability of £40, if I get to £40 profit,
increase the liability to £50.
If profit gets to 40 + 50 = £90, increase the set liability to
If profit gets to 90 + 60 = £150, increase the set liability to
£70, . . . and so on.
I may be prepared to lose
£100 following these tips, but if things are looking a bit
naughty before I get £100 into the red, I'll implement my exit
strategy . . . . . Lol.
My exit strategy is that if I trade into the red and things look
bad, I'll pack it in . . . Lol again.
From that you can see that I may make a strategic
withdrawal (a retreat) at any point if results don't live up to
As always, good luck with your trades,
2013. Progressive staking methods compared . . . .
Percentage of bank, level stakes, etc.
I have deleted my post dated June 7th, as it was rather poor.
Over the past few weeks, I have been
looking at staking plans, particularly for laying.
Below is a comparison of several staking methods for Laying.
Laying for a Fixed Liability
(of minus £40).
Stake sizes are
decided by the size of the odds.
- Laying to a Percentage
Liability of our Bank.
sizes are decided by the size of our bank.
- Laying to win a set
Profit Target, using a set percentage of the on-going
profit or loss.
Stake sizes are decided by the profit needed to reach the
I put a video together to compare
the Profit Target method with the "Percentage of bank" method.
this link to the YouTube video
After uploading my video to YouTube, I put a "Fixed
spreadsheet together so that I could do some comparisons between
those 3 methods and laying at Level Stakes.
Laying to a set Level of £40 liability in every race paid
better than laying to a percentage of our bank.
Both of those paid better than
laying to a win a set Profit Target.
However, using the Profit Target method, stake sizes go down as
If we are confident of our lay selections, once our profit
reaches say, 50% of the target, we can reset the spreadsheet to
start again with bigger stakes again.
Doing that can boost profits, providing that we continue with
In the video, I demonstrate the benefit of doing a "Restart".
Note that in that video, one of the results was a Dead Heat.
In the 2nd spreadsheet shown in the video, "Lay to a percentage
liability of our bank", the red Adjustment
shown is incorrect.
I had copied odds and results plus the Adjustment from one
spreadsheet to the other, but the different staking method in
the 2nd sheet meant that the Adjustment was incorrect.
The lay stake in the 2nd spreadsheet in the video should be
£9.93 for a liability of minus £17.36.
That changes the overall profit to +£156.29 at row 41 in the
Below is a summary of the profits
from the 3 different staking methods.
Profit from the Profit Target spreadsheet after a restart after
a profit of £100 was reached, demonstrated in the video is
shown on the right.
Odds for the 38 lays in the video were taken from
"Lay Of The Day" on
the bettingexpert.com web site.
10 of those lays hit a winner, one of which was a Dead Heat, so
lay stakes were halved for that result.
Lay £1 on every runner for a £1 Level Stakes lay profit =
20% liability of £200
20% of a bank for a Profit Target of £200
Stake to liability of :-
Liability varied up and
up and down
£200 after a restart.
The 2 staking plans to the right
both started with a £40 lay, and the lay stakes varied according
to whether the bank went up or down as the races hit a winner or
As they both started with first race liabilities of
minus £40, I set the Level Stakes
method to liabilities of minus £40
for every lay.
To compare Level Stakes with those profits, maybe we should
divide the profits by the 7.95 points profit or something, but I
don't think that information tells us very much, so I have left
I'll be adding a "Restart" facility to the Profit Target sheet
so that we can leave all results in the sheet and carry on
staking as if we had cleared the sheet and started again with
the bigger stakes shown in the video.
My intention is to correct the staking in the video and put
these 3 different staking methods on
Plans web page.
These staking plans
rely on a good selection method for hitting losers of course.
Warning. In the video,
I use odds taken from results of free tips for "Lay Of The Day"
on the bettingexpert.com web site.
There are some complaints on that web page that the odds shown
may not have been available, so if you decide to follow those
tips, be careful, Howard.
2013. The 5F "Dash" - - - - Epsom
Derby Day 15:15 tomorrow . . . . . and my claim to fame.
The best race of the year takes place again tomorrow - - - the
race before The Derby, a 5F handicap for older horses at 3:15.
Pure speed is what this race is about, and daring riding - -
maybe, as this is the fastest 5F in the country.
This is by far my favourite race of the year.
Unfortunately, television coverage concentrates on The Derby, so
the build-up to this race and the coverage afterwards is rather
If you take an interest in this race, make sure that you know
the colours of your jockeys, and which stalls they will be
starting from, as the action won't last very long.
As last year, I'll probably be
laying the horses drawn in stalls 1 to 6, depending on the
Follow this link for a description of the draw advantage in
races over 5F at Epsom for horses aged 3 yrs & older.
a winner at odds of 100.0 last year with one of my lays, so
I am hoping for a better result this time. . . . .Lol.
This race attracts lots of runners these days, so I am hoping
that last year's winner was probably the first winner in about
20 years to win this particular race from a starting stall
numbered 1 to 6, on good or better going, so with a bit of luck,
the stats should be on my side this year.
The starting stalls in Epsom 5F
races NEVER used to be placed against the Stands' Side running
rail in 5F races, but since the late 1980's they have ALWAYS
been placed against the Stands' Rail.
If you can be bothered reading about a bit of history,
this link to read about
what caused Epsom Racecoure to take such drastic action. . .
moving the starting stalls from the Low rail or middle of the
course, to the "High" rail on the Stands' side.
Read that, for my claim to fame
. . . .Lol.
I like to think that I caused Epsom Racecourse to take those
measures in an attempt to eliminate the strongest Draw vantage
in the country - -
No-one knew the very strong draw advantage in Epsom 5F races
until I came up with a few very basic (and very obvious - to me
at least) stats.
I would guess that your newspaper tomorrow will recommend a High
Draw advantage over the 5F course.
That is the TOTAL OPPOSITE of the draw advantage advice that
your newspaper and all other newspaper used to give, even though
just 3 horses were winning the majority of these races.
I won't bore you any further with that.
Just follow the link above for a bit of decent information from
Last year's winner of this race,
"Stone Of Folca", has a much more favourable draw this time in
stall 15, so with a bit of luck, maybe he'll win again and do me
a favour this time, instead of creating a disaster . . . .Lol
Tonight, at about 8:45pm, the Lay
odds of those 6 runners in stalls 1 to 6 combined (32.0, 60.0,
48.0, 44.0, 60.0, 20.0) are 6.32 if one of them wins, so maybe a
lay of those 6 horses may represent good value as there may have
been only one winner in the last 20 years - - - if the going is
good or faster.
If we were to bet the 6 best drawn horses in the Top 6 stalls,
stalls 20 to 15, the combined bet odds of those would be 2.07,
almost even money.
The winner could come from stalls 7 to 14 of course, but if we
were to choose between betting at even money in a 20 runner
handicap, or laying at 6.23, I'd be more optimistic about laying
odds of 6.23 and hoping for a loser rather than betting at 2.07
for a winner.
OK, I've convinced myself . . . Lol. . . . I'll go ahead with
the lays of stalls 1 to 6 tomorrow.
Betfair markets are supposed to
be very efficient of course, so I may just be kidding myself by
looking at the odds like that.
The draw advantage may be factored into the price - - - now that
everyone knows about it of course.
That bit of speculation is just my opinion, and having an
opinion is what betting and laying is all about.
Wish me luck with my lays, Howard.
After the race today :-
I didn't trade in this Epsom 5F race as the going forecast this
morning was Good/G-soft.
Even without a financial interest, the race was exciting to
watch with both the winner and the 2nd coming from a long way
The horse from stall 19 won with stalls 1 and 5 in 2nd and 3rd
places - - - perhaps a clear indication that going softer than
good is not what we should be looking for if we are looking to
lay badly drawn horses in stalls 1 to 6.
Hopefully next year's race will be run on faster ground.
Good luck next year, Howard.
2013. Percent of bank staking for Roulette.
I've now combined the 2 sheets described below in my previous
post so that they can be traded using just one spreadsheet.
The idea is to bet one runner, and lay another different runner
in the same race, football match, etc..
If we can get a decent run of results, it is possible to get
both staking plans into a winning position.
What we require is separate betting and laying selections, but
in the same event :-
example, we might simply bet the 2nd favourite in horse races,
and lay the favourite.
If we hit the winner with our bet, we also have a successful lay
(of the fav), for a winning bet, plus a successful lay.
That would be a profit for both
staking plans, but other combinations see a profit in one
staking plan only, or a loss in both :-
If we don't hit the winner with our bet or our lay, we have a
successful lay which may be bigger than our losing bet.
If we hit the winner with our lay, we have both a losing bet,
plus payout of lay liabilities on our lay.
We don't have to lay something at short odds of course, so if
you have a selection method for hitting winning bets, you might
consider laying something in the same horse race, football
match, etc., that you would expect to lose.
The bet stakes in this spreadsheet aim for a profit that is a
percentage of your betting bank.
The lay stakes can be set to a liability that is a percentage of
your betting bank.
Those can be set independently in the spreadsheet, so you may
set them the same, maybe to win or lose 10% of your bank, or you
may set them at different levels, maybe to add 10% if we have a
winning bet, or lose only 5% if we hit a winner with our lay.
The aim is to get both percentage
staking plans into profit, or one of them to show a profit that
is bigger than the loss of the other.
If you have a betting selection method, you might favour the bet
side, and if you prefer to pick losers, you may favour the lay
If you can combine both in the same race / event, you may set
them both to the same level and see what happens.
With the right results, it is certainly possible to get both
staking plans into profit at the same time.
Things can go the other way of course, with both showing a loss.
I have played about with a few results and this bet and lay 2
runners, to bet and lay targets spreadsheet looks quite
Roulette. . . . . . . .
After thinking about combining more than one Percentage of Bank
stalking plan the other day, I decided that 2 betting Percentage
of Bank staking plans for Roulette may work for even money
staking as the odds are continually at 2.0 apart from the Green
As we all probably know, Roulette
is notorious for favouring one side of results over the other.
If betting Red and Black numbers, we may see one colour dominate
for quite a while and then the other.
My theory was that as one side of the staking hit most winners,
a Percentage Of bank staking plan would see stakes increase on
that winning side and show a steadily increasing profit.
Whilst one side is winning, the opposite side will be losing and
stakes will be deceasing.
Gains would be getting bigger and bigger, whilst losses would be
getting smaller and smaller.
With that in mind, I put a spreadsheet together to Bet 2 staking
plans at the same time - - - maybe one for
Red and the other for Black,
or Odd / Even, or Top Half / Bottom Half of the
My theory was that one side would dominate at some point whilst
the other would be losing, and that bet winnings on one side
would be bigger than bet losses on the other.
"favourable results", that is exactly what happens
using percentage of bank staking on 2 bets in the same market at
odds of 2.0.
However, testing the sheet with a few fictitious results showed
that if results favour both sides for a while with no side
dominating, both staking plans can get into a losing situation
for an overall loss.
Chuck in the occasional Green Zero result, and things could get
slightly worse, but my guess is that Green Zero wouldn't have a
massive effect of the progress the staking of our wins and
What really matters is how the red and black, or other Even
Money results come in bunches.
If we could guarantee that one side would dominate, all may be
I didn't use cash whilst testing.
I also considered other markets with only 2 possible outcomes,
such as Over 2.5 Goals in football matches..
The "Bet 2 Outcomes" Roulette sheet can include commission
deductions so would be suitable for trading anything that has
only 2 possible outcomes such as Over/Under Goals, or, if you
have a selection method that involves 2 selections that are
successful on a regular basis, it may work ok, especially if the
odds are bigger than 2.0.
You might bet just 2 selections from Match Odds for instance, or
2 horses in a horse race.
I may put 3 Percentage of Bank
Bet sheets together for trading such as Match Odds and see how 3
If we simply bet the Home Team, Away Team, and the Draw in
selected matches (if we have a suitable selection method),
perhaps 2 of those staking plans may get into profit whilst the
3rd shows a loss.
Suitable games for that may involve a strong favourite team,
with perhaps the outsider losing most games whilst winners come
from the Strong Favourite team and the Draw.
Your selection method may not be quite as naive and basic, - - -
- That's just a bit of speculation.
You could of course bet 3 horse in horse races if you have a
good selection method, and if you are able to hit enough winners
from your 3 runners, maybe one or even 2 of your 3 staking plans
could get you into profit if your 3rd makes a loss.
I'll be working on different
combinations of these "Percentage Of Bank" staking plans in the
coming months, so we will see what I can come up with.
So far, I have : -
- Bet a percentage of bank,
Lay a percentage of bank. - - - 2 separate spreadsheets in
the same file,
Plans web page
- Bet 2 selections using a
percentage of bank, suitable for Roulette for example.
and lay 2 runners in the same event.
Bet to a profit target, plus Lay
to a set liability - both in the same spreadsheet.
Laying to a set lay liability offers control over lay
liabilities, whilst betting to a profit target offers a set
profit from bet winnings.
I'll keep you updated on
progress. I feel some videos coming on . . . . Lol,
Percent of Bank
Lay Liabilities and
Percentage of Bank Bet Profit Target staking plans.
I put 2 more spreadsheet staking plans together today which are
based on using a percentage of our betting bank.
I decided that if we Lay a percentage of our bank, at different
sized odds we don't have control over the size of our lay
liabilities, so I put a staking plan together for laying to a
set lay liability each time that we place a lay.
Using this new sheet, we can set our lay liabilities at say, 5%
of our bank, so that lay liabilities remain pretty constant.
Then if we hit a winner with one of our lays, 5% of our bank is
our payout on every lay regardless of the size of the odds that
If we simply lay a percentage of our bank, lay liabilities could
be bigger or smaller percentages of our bank as we lay at
different sized odds.
This new spreadsheet stabilizes our payout.
Once I had put that together, I
decided that betting to a profit target each time could work
That can stabilize our winnings.
I put a spreadsheet together that aims to win a set percentage
of our bank every time we hit a winner, rather than just staking
a percentage of our bank.
If we can hit winners, our bank will increase by a set
percentage each time.
As you know, a series of percentage increases can really add up
if we can hit a few winners.
I put odds of 6.0 into the sheet and found that after several
losers, bet losses could be recovered by just a single winner,
even after commission deductions.
If we can then hit a winner or 3 in succession, the bank starts
to increase again.
The laying sheet works best if we can lay at short odds of
I've been looking at combining
both sheets to see what happens, using some odds from horse
races, but these staking plans will work in any markets of
course - - - horses, football, etc..
My intention is to put these 2 new spreadsheets
Plans web page and put a video together
Plans web page is expanding a little now.
As always, good luck with your trades, Howard.
May 13th 2013.
Percentage of Bank
I would guess that most of us are familiar with this topic, so nothing new here
I had a request some time ago from a spreadsheet customer for a sheet for
recording a "Percentage of Bank" staking plan.
He had a lot of results to input, so I put a sheet together with over 2,000
lines for his results.
Recently, I've had another request for a similar sheet that would be suitable
for someone who may be at work whilst several trades take place.
If you are at work, or just need to bet or lay several events
that are taking place at the same time, such as several football
matches, you cannot keep up with several events during the day
and stake sizes that change due to a winners or losers, so I
have put a sheet together that gets around those problems.
The date column triggers an update of the staking, so if we want to update after
every event we simply input the date.
If we cannot monitor every bet or lay, or we have several bets running at the
same time, we can maintain the same stake for
several events by simply leaving the Date column blank.
Once we input a new date, the staking looks at the results, updates our Total
Bank and sets the next stake to the percentage of our Total Bank that we have
set in the spreadsheet.
This Excel file has
a Betting sheet and a separate Laying sheet for betting or laying a percentage
of our bank.
I used a Percentage of Bank sheet for betting some horse races a while ago.
I found that whilst I was hitting winners, my bank grew quite quickly, and after
a loser, it recovered ok once I hit a few more winners.
At that time, I was betting very short odds with a high strike rate in the Place
market of horse races.
This Excel file has a Bet sheet and a Lay sheet.
Both of those have a graphical display to show progress of profit or loss from
our bets or lays.
Also included is a "Coupled Odds" sheet.
If we decide to Dutch a few runners in a race or football match etc., this sheet
shows the combined odds of our runners.
If we decide to bet or lay more than one runner, we can use the Coupled Odds
sheet to show the combined odds of all our runners and then input the Coupled
Odds into the Percentage of Bank sheet as a single entry on one line of the
Win or lose with our Dutching, that single line in the Percentage of bank sheet
will work just as well as a single bet or lay entry.
My trading buddy and I are using this sheet at
present, trading some football matches.
This spreadsheet package is now up on
Plans web page.
As always, good luck with your trades,
H. Hutchinson 2009 All rights reserved
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