Archive of activity to
September
2009
.
Sept 22nd 2009. Under 1.5 Goals strategy
uploaded. After a bit of fine tuning of the instructions today and a bit more trading
tonight, I have now put this new strategy onto my web sites. Follow this link for a description
Under 1.5 Goals
strategy with insurance. I lost on the first game I traded tonight after a goal at 6 minutes, but won all
the losses back and more, in the 2nd game I traded that had a goal at 29
minutes.Under 1.5 Goals with insurance, is best suited to games in which the 2 teams are
evenly matched in Betfair's Match Odds market.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.. |
Sept 22nd 2009. Under 1.5 Goals strategy
update. Testing of this new strategy is more or less complete. I've traded games with no goals, an early goal, games with a goal well into the
game, and games that were 0-0 at Half Time that I traded into the 2nd Half. I have completed the write-up for this strategy and recorded video demos for
viewing on YouTube. Those demo videos will be available to paying customers only.
I'm also arranging to do a webinar presentation of
this Under 1.5 Goals strategy on the
new web site
that I have been involved with for the last couple of months. That web site gives members access to full time traders - who share their
trading secrets via videos and articles within the
new web site. Members on there already have free access to the 2 spreadsheets that I use for
trading this strategy, so after the webinar demonstration, they should be able
to trade this strategy if they choose.
This strategy is proving quite a safe way of
trading. The only 2 problems are a really early goal or 2 quick goals early in a game. Other than those 2 situations, we can either trade to profit or exit with a very
small loss, providing we choose the right games. I don't recommend trading games in which one of the teams is a very strong
favourite. If the strong favourite team scores first in those games, the Lay odds of the
remaining score still In Play (either 1-0 or 0-1), may not shorten, as the
market may expect more goals. In games with evenly matched teams, the Lay odds of the remaining In Play score
(1-0 or 0-1) usually shorten to some degree which is ok for this strategy. Note that at that point, these lay odds of either 1-0 or 0-1) will be the same
or very close to the Under 1.5 Goals Lay odds as these are now equivalent
markets after one goal has been scored. If you had simply bet Under 1.5 Goals before the Kick Off and now looked to Lay
Under 1.5 Goals, very often the Under 1.5 Goals odds (which are now equal to
either the 1-0 or 0-1 odds) are bigger than before the kick off - making an exit
to profit impossible. This strategy gets around that problem, and can often produce a profit after one
goal is scored. If the goal comes really early in the game, the loss is usually very small -
preserving our bank for another game. I hope to put this strategy up on my web sites later this week for only a tenner.
Good luck with your trading, Howard.. |
August 31st 2009. Under 1.5
Goals strategy. I traded a few games over the weekend and improved my
profits a bit from the basic
strategy. I'm now using a fixed stake for my
insurance, which works very well. Also, I eliminated the need for a
goal yesterday in the Everton -
Wigan game, simply by trading out
whilst the score was 0-0 at about
the 35 minute mark. At that point, all my trade was in
profit, so it was just a matter of
choosing my moment to make a
profitable exit. If I'd waited and traded out at Half
Time with the score still at 0-0, I
would have made a smaller profit, so
trading out before Half Time
is an improvement. A goal would have been better. The Arsenal goal at 40 minutes
against Man Utd the day before was
an excellent result for me. I traded out immediately afterwards
- very nice.
This is
a Bet First Under 1.5 Goals
strategy. Normally if we Bet Under 1.5 Goals,
a goal in the First Half of a game
causes the odds to rise which can
make it impossible to Lay Under 1.5
Goals to hedge to profit. To lay to profit, we need to sweat
it out waiting for time to pass in
the game whilst the odds begin to
drop again. The aim of this strategy is to
eliminate that problem.
If I
had simply been trading in the
Betfair Under 1.5 Goals market, and
had a bet on Under 1.5 Goals still
In Play at 40 minutes in the
Arsenal - Man Utd game, I wouldn't
have been able to Lay at lower odds
to make a profitable exit after the
Arsenal goal.. The Under 1.5 Goals odds before the
Kick Off were Bet 3.5. After the goal at 40 minutes, the
Lay odds of Under 1.5 Goals were 4.9
at Half Time. This new strategy gets around that
Lay odds problem, so that even
though the Under 1.5 Goals Lay odds
were bigger than when I entered the
market before the Kick Off, I was
able to Lay and exit my trade to
profit.
Also,
by trading out if the score remains
0-0 towards Half Time, I can still
make a good profit, just as you
would if you had simply bet Under
1.5 Goals and waited for the odds to
drop whilst the score remained 0-0. This strategy is beginning to look
like a very safe way of trading, Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
August 27th 2009. A "Trade
Under 1.5 Goals" strategy rolls of the production line.
After concentrating on horses for 2 or 3 months, I've
started looking at Football trading on Betfair again. A fresh start has done me good - I've had a re-think of some
Correct Score market trading on Betfair, and the penny dropped
last week for quite a good way of trading Under 1.5 Goals. Success of this strategy relies on a goal being scored, but an
early goal can cause problems. The breakthrough I had concerned insurance against an early
goal. I've come up with some insurance that can be varied to our
comfort / risk level.
If we reduce the size of our insurance stake, the risk of a loss
from an early goal is increased. If we increase the size of our insurance stake, the risk of a
loss from an early goal is reduced and if a goal is scored for a
successful trade, a bigger insurance stake increases profits for
the trade as a whole. Unfortunately, a big insurance stake combined with no goal = big
liabilities. I came up with a very easy way of balancing the insurance stake
that mostly seems to cover all but the first 15 minutes or so,
whilst allowing us to exit to a small profit if the score
remains 0-0. Increase that insurance stake slightly, and our 0-0 profit will
probably go into the red, but we reduce the early goal cover to
less than the 15 minute mark. No doubt you will see straight away that if there is no goal, a
bet on Under 1.5 Goals could be Hedged successfully to profit. However, if we are simply Hedging Under 1.5 Goals and an early
goal is scored and we can be caught with a bet in play. We could easily be looking at trading into the red, or having to
wait for time to pass in the game whilst we wait for the odds of
Under 1.5 Goals to reduce. A goal at the right time is very good for my strategy, with
profit bigger than just a straight Hedge of the Under 1.5 Goals
odds.
I have paper traded this strategy
and I'm now putting my money where my spreadsheet is to find out
what the problems might be. So far, the only problems have been the timing of the first
goal, OR no goals at all of course but my insurance is covering
most of that. This strategy will be for sale shortly, once I've traded a few
more games.
For some considerable time, I've
been working on a strategy for the Under/Over 2.5 Goals market. I have a decent strategy for that, but I need insurance to cover
an early goal, or too many goals. No goals, or 1 or 2 goals after 20 minutes or so is great . . .
.. 3 or more goals cause problems. I've traded this 2.5 Goals strategy with my cash and done ok,
but the early goal and too many goals problems are still there. I'll be applying my Under 1.5 Goals insurance method to this 2.5
Goals strategy when I get some spare time. Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
August 18th 2009.
Live
webinar. I presented my first ever live
on-line webinar on Sunday evening at
7 pm. My topic was
Dutching -
from basics to trading In Play. I covered horse racing Win and Place
markets using my Be A Bookie
spreadsheet and my Place Market
spreadsheets that I developed
recently. My presentation took an hour, and
I'm looking forward to being invited
to do another.
My
webinar was the first of what will
be a series of webinars presented
for the
New website |
August 8th 2009.
New website. A few months ago, I was invited to join a team of full time
traders for a new website venture. The new web site is designed to enable anyone to
make a 2nd income from trading. The main thrust of the site is that you can improve your trading
and make guaranteed winnings whilst you do it.
Videos and articles on the site show
exactly how full time traders go about their business All the Full Timers involved are available on the site to answer any
trading questions that you would like to put to them.
Now is your chance to get in on
the ground floor. This new website is going places, and guarantees to make you a
profit every month. I have been rummaging around the site since launch at the
weekend, and already it's been a real eye opener for me.
Follow this link - I guarantee that you won't be disappointed.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
July 25th 2009. How long
can this go on ? Trade Bookies Free Bets. I don't like to see blogs that record profit and losses from
trades, and try to avoid posting my trades on here, so I
apologise for describing my P & L here..
How long can bookies continue to
give away money ? Although I have quite a lot of accounts with bookies, some of
those same bookies occasionally give me additional free bets -
usually pretty small, £5 or £10. A couple of weeks ago I received an invitation by post from a
very well known bookie offering £100 in free bets. All I had to do was deposit £25 for the first free £25, and then
stake 5 x £25 to get the next free £25, and repeat that 5 x £25
a couple more times to complete the free £100 in free bets.
The total turnover requirement
was therefore £25 plus 3 x £125 = £400. I traded the £400 for a total loss of just
-£7.46 and made a net profit of £76.05 on the free bet
trades after commission
at 5%, and deduction of the £7.46 it cost me to trade the £400
in bets. That
-£7.46
loss would have been smaller if the Lay odds of one of my trades
hadn't gone against me and cost me -£3.96. When I started I had just £2.20 in my bookie account, but by
today my bookie account stood at £220.95. My total deposits were £100, so this offer has cost this bookie
almost £120, whilst I have made a risk free £76.. All my bets were on horses. I haven't looked for winners at all, as I only traded horses with
favourable odds compared to Betfair odds. I hit 4 winners (in 20 races), one of which dead heated. I know that bookies set aside a budget for these offers, but how
long can they stand losses such as this? Some of my spreadsheet customers ask me which strategy is the
best or most profitable. My answer is always the same :- Trade bookies free bet offers
for guaranteed winnings.. These trades are the only mathematical certainty that I know of
in the gambling world. It doesn't matter if you hit all winners, all losers, or
something in between, and it doesn't matter if your bookie bet odds are
smaller than your Betfair lay odds - you will win every time. If you are not familiar with this strategy
an explanation and a spreadsheet are available via this link. Follow the link down that web page "Trade A Mathematical Certainty". Just think of this strategy as a straight transfer of cash - bet
with the bookie and lay the same selection on Betfair. You will either transfer cash into your Betfair account from
your bookie account, or transfer cash into your bookie account
from your Betfair account. When you trade your free bet, the bet side of your trade is
free, so if you equalize your stakes for an equal win or lose
profit, . . . . Bingo ! . . . . . You have a
very good profit that more than covers any small loss you may
incur from trading your deposit, or meeting turnover
requirements. Don't worry that the free bet stake isn't returned with
winnings. The spreadsheet shows the stakes required for several different
bookie offers, all of which are very profitable.
If you haven't yet opened a
boatload of bookie accounts and taken advantage of these
wonderful free bets, a small fortune awaits you - This is FREE
MONEY.. . . . . Long may it continue. Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
July 20th 2009.
Open Golf 8
places payout. . . . . . Bet and Lay Each Way. Shortly after my July 13th post, Boylesprts upped their place
market offer to a payout on the first 8 places paying one
quarter the odds.. I haven't really concentrated on Golf markets before as golf
isn't a sport that interests me, but Betfair has a range of golf
markets that look interesting. In relation to the Boylesport offer of a payout on 8 places, I
looked at the Betfair Outright Winner market, plus the Top 5
Finish market. The Boylesport offer applied only to bets placed the day before
the competition started.For anyone with an opinion as to who might go close in the Open
Golf Championship, the Boylesports offer had some trading
possibilities. We would need to bet each way with the bookie
the day before the
championship started, but the
Betfair Win market and the Top 5 Finish markets continued until
the last day of the competition. Therefore after betting each way we could look to lay our golfer
or golfers at
lower odds in those 2 markets
as the game progressed,
for guaranteed
winnings. Since the bookie paid to 8 places but we would only be laying to
5 places on Betfair, there would be a bumper payout with extra
bet winnings if one of
our golfers finished 6th, 7th or 8th. We would only have lay liabilities up to 5 places, but the
bookie would pay to 8 places on our bet.
As expected, the bookie odds were
lower than the Betfair odds. If we were able to bet high with the bookie and lay low on
Betfair in both markets, we would have normal Hedge profits, plus additional
winnings from the bookie.if
one of our golfers finished 6th, 7th or 8th.
A problem with these golf markets
is that several players can tie for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc.
positions which would probably reduce all round profits. In this year's Open Golf Championship,
- 2 players had a play-off for
first place, giving us 1st and 2nd,
- 2 players tied for 3rd
place,
- 3 players tied for 5th
place,
- and 5 players tied for 8th
place.
Any payout on 6th, 7th and 8th
places would probably have been reduced from a quarter the odds
to something like a quarter odds ( divided by 8 and multiplied
by 3) but that's only my guess at how the bookies might
calculate their payout. Whatever the payout, it may be worth taking note of any bookie
that offers to pay more places than one of the Betfair Place
markets - - - for an extra payout on top of your normal Hedge
profit. Good luck with your
golf trading, Howard. |
July 18th 2009. Lay the Betfair Place markets
video. Follow the link above to view videos on UTube showing the Excel
spreadsheet for laying in the Betfair Place markets. Input the odds of your runners and the sheet shows the stakes
required for an eqaul profit or loss on all runners. The 2nd video shows how to bias your staking to favour one horse
using the Adjust feature. Good luck with that, Howard. |
July 13th 2009. Bet the Betfair
Place market in Horse Races, Open Golf 7 place payouts, and an
equivalent market certainty.
After laying a few races in the Betfair
Place markets, I decided to build a
spreadsheet for betting the Place market. The maths described below in my previous post for Laying also apply to Betting in the Place
Only markets.
I looked at Laying in a few handicap races on Saturday July 11th, with the
emphasis on the horses that were shortest in the betting. A race that stood out was the 3:30 race at Chester, a 5F sprint
for horses aged 3 yrs and older. We all know about the strong draw bias in these races that
favours horses drawn low, and sure enough, the first five in the
betting were drawn in stalls 1 to 5. So what would happen if we Layed these 5 runners in the Place
market on Betfair ? If we did that, we would be laying 5 well drawn, well fancied
runners - not a particularly good strategy.
The first 3 home were drawn in
stalls 2, 4 and 3. The table below shows our profit or loss if we had Layed stalls
1 to 5 at the lay odds on offer just before 2:00pm - - each
horse for a total payout of £20 including the returned stake.
Race plus No of horses
to lay |
1 Placed |
2 Placed |
3 Placed |
Chester 3:30 5 of
11 layed |
£22.06 |
£2.06 |
-£17.94 |
As you can see, if only one horse from stalls 1
to 5 had been placed, we would have made a profit of £22.06. However, all 3 placed horses started from the favoured stalls, for a loss of
-£17.94.
Now, if we had BET those 5 horses
instead of laying, the potential profit shown in black would be
potential losses, and the potential losses shown in red would be
potential profits. So, this race would have produced a very nice profit if we had
bet the horses drawn in stalls 1 to 5, which were also the first
5 horses in the betting.
If we had bet only 4 horses,
there would have been a potential profit if only 2 had been
placed. There have to be some possibilities here for betting well drawn
horses that are well fancied on form. Visit my web site
www.startingstalls.co.uk for the best draw advantage advice
ever produced. Combine that information with the Betfair Place market odds, and
with a bit of luck and good judgement, there could be some good
trades. The Place (Bet) Dutching spreadsheet will be available shortly. Apologies for the after-timing in the demonstration above, and
the 2 below.
The table below shows the results of
LAYING the 2 big handicaps at York on Saturday that paid on
4 places.
Race plus No of
horses to lay |
1 Placed |
2 Placed |
3 Placed |
4 Placed |
York 2:35 Lay 9 of 17 runners |
£32.44 |
£2.44 |
-£7.56 |
-£27.56 |
York 3:10 Lay 9 of 20 runners |
£31.87 |
£11.87 |
£-£8.13 |
-£28.13 |
If we had BET those 9 shortest priced runners instead of laying in the 2 races
above, our profit would be the figures shown in red, and our loss the figures in
black. We would have bet the 9 most strongly fancied runners, against almost an even
money chance that 2 of the outsiders would make the frame.
3 runners were placed in the 2:35 race from the first 9 horses in the betting,
and all 4 were from the first 9 in the betting in the 3:10 race. There is some potential for betting the well fancied runners to profit, or
laying the outsiders, with the possibility of losses being reduced to just one
or 2 placed horses rather than all 3 or 4 that we might expect. That's something that is not displayed on our Betfair screen,
but use a
spreadsheet to show the staking, and we can see exactly what our market position
would be.
You can see now why I built an Excel
spreadsheet to show our market position for Betting in Betfair's horse racing
Place markets, as well as a laying sheet. If you use either of these 2 spreadsheets, it would be best of course to lay
runners that you wouldn't expect to be placed, and bet those that you would
expect to be placed. Either way, profit and liabilities can be balanced to suit your comfort level. To adjust the returns, just lay more runners if laying to reduce potential
payout, or bet less runners if betting to increase potential winnings.
Open Golf 7 places payouts Today, I received notice by e-mail that Boylesports are paying
out on 7 places each way for the British Open Golf Championships
starting this week at Turnberry.
Having just looked at the Betfair
golf markets, I note that we can trade a Top 5 or Top 10 finish. There may be an opportunity to bet each way with a bookie, lay
the win part of the bet, and then lay the place against a top 5
finish. If we could do that, we could have 7 possible place bet winners
against only 5 possible Lay liabilities. I'll have to monitor a few bookie odds and compare them with the
Betfair lay odds, and take into consideration the different
markets. Bookies aren't fools, so don't expect me to come back with some
over generous bookie odds with smaller lay odds on Betfair, but
you never know until you take a look !
I seem to remember SkyBet paying
to 5 places in the John Smith's Handicap at York on Saturday,
which gave me the idea in the first place. Betfair only paid on the horses placed 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
In previous years, I have looked
at laying several players in the British Open Golf Championship
as they take the lead, or get well up the leader board. If a strong favourite such as Tiger Woods dominates, it is
impossible to lay a decent book, but if the lead changes a few
times, it is possible to lay over a 100% book well before the
end of the tournament.
Once you hit a 100% book with
your lays, you can lay as many other players as you like and all
you do is add to your profits, even if they are trading at huge
odds. Follow this link for a description of my Be A Bookie
spreadsheet, and other bookie spreadsheet options :-
betandlay.co.uk/bookie Be A Bookie, plus other
Laying strategies and spreadsheets for
Betfair trading.
An equivalent market certainty It's been a busy week this week on my research and development
front. Last week, I noticed an equivalent market where the Bet odds
were high in one market, but the Lay odds were low in an
equivalent market. Today, I started to investigate further, and tried something
that I hadn't done before - I opened 2 Internet windows using my
Betfair account and looked at trading the 2 markets side by
side. There are software packages available that can do this of
course, but I had never tried it before just using my ordinary
log in. The 2 markets I looked at today didn't produce a trade, but I'll
look again and trade the first opportunity I see with a
spreadsheet that I have built for the purpose. On a successful trade, there will be commission to pay, as I
will have either a winning bet or a successful lay. The formula for that is like a snowball. As I add commission to my bet winnings, my lay increases to
cover the extra 5%, which in turn means that I need a bigger bet
stake to cover the lay + 5% commission, which means I need to
increase my lay to cover that bigger bet, and so it goes around
and around. I have tried to tackle this "Commission in both markets" problem
before but I have so far failed to get my stakes to equalize my
profits exactly. I use a small adjustment at present which does the trick, but a
formula needing no adjustment would be better. If you have the formula answer, I'll gladly do you a swap for a
spreadsheet or 2. Just drop me an e-mail.
This has been quite a long post. Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
July 3rd 2009. Lay the Betfair
Place market in Horse Races. I paper traded 0-0 in a few football
matches, but of course found that I needed to reduce the
timescale between placing my initial bet and my lay to exit. Making an exit earlier reduced profits of course. I also looked at insuring against an early goal by betting in
the time of the First Goal market. Covering 0-10 minutes, 11-20, and 21-30 minutes, eliminated my
profit after commission, so that was a no-goer as well. This 0-0 strategy is therefore proving too risky time-wise, so I
won't be putting it up on my web pages.
I've since started to concentrate on
the Betfair Horse Racing Place market. As you know, Betfair displays your market position for all
runners in the Win market as you place bets and lays. However, in the Place market, it is impossible for Betfair to do
that due to all the different combinations of stakes that can
occur with 2, 3, and 4 placed horses. In the Place market, Betfair only displays your liabilities for
each individual horse, not all runners..
I have built a spreadsheet to get
around that problem, and I am testing it with my cash this week. If you would like a preview of how I tackled this problem
and how the maths of Place market work
follow this link for a write up. A PayPal button will be added to that write up after I have
tested the maths with my cash. So far, everything has been spot on.
The liabilities of the Place
market may not be as dangerous as you might imagine. If 1 or 2 (or 3 in handicaps with 16+ runners) of your layed horses get placed, you can still show a
profit, providing you balance your staking, and lay enough
horses. I will be laying some badly drawn horses this week. All I need is just 1 or 2 well drawn horses (that I have not
layed) to make the frame, and if I stake correctly, I could show
a profit. I will be using my web site
www.startingstalls.co.uk to identify the well drawn and
badly drawn horses. My testing may take a while as I will only lay in races in which
I expect a very strong draw advantage. There are plenty of very strong draw advantages besides just
Beverley 5F and Chester 5F.
I also started to build a 2nd
spreadsheet to target more than one loser in the Place market,
but things started to get rather complicated due to the
different combinations of stakes - which is why Betfair only
shows individual liabilities. My current spreadsheet can be used to target one horse if you
use the Adjust feature. That may be as good as it gets on the Place market combinations
front. We'll see.
Excel spreadsheets are
a quick and reliable way
of doing calculations. Purchase an excellent spreadsheet here for only £10..
Be A Bookie - Dutch The Place Market Excel spreadsheet.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view this
spreadsheet.
This Be A Bookie Place Market spreadsheet
calculates the lay stakes required to Lay up to 25 selections to an equal liability.
Input the amount of your Total
Payout, and as you input the odds of your selections, the spreadsheet shows :-
-
The Lay stake
required for each runner.
-
Equal liabilities
against each runner.
-
Liability on each
runner reducing as more runners are Layed.
-
Percentage of your
book at all stages.
-
Total of Lay stakes
at all stages - - - "Skinner" amount.
-
Guaranteed winnings
on one placed lay if your total book is over 100%
-
Guaranteed winnings on 2 placed lays if your total book is over
200%
-
Guaranteed winnings on 3 placed lays if your total book is over
300%.
The more runners
you Lay, the less your liabilities become. The more runners you Lay, the bigger the payout on a
"Skinner" - - - a horse you haven't layed. In big handicaps, lay to a book percentage of over 300% and you
will only have liabilities if you hit ALL 4 placed horses with
your lays - - - - - otherwise you will make a profit.
This spreadsheet has an Adjust facility. This Adjust feature allows you to bias your stakes in favour of one runner,
or all runners except one.
For example, you may feel that the winner
should come from the first few in the betting. In a race of say, 8 runners, you may decide to Lay 5 of the runners, to show a
profit on the first 4 of your lays, but break even on your 5th runner. Stake correctly and you could :-
Be A Bookie
- Dutch The Place Market Excel spreadsheet
price = £10. Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment
button below.
|
Good luck
with your trading, Howard. |
June 17th
2009. Trade 0-0 in Betfair Correct Score market with
reduced risk. I have done some fine tuning of my new strategy for Hedging
0-0 in Betfair's Correct Score Market described in my June 4th
post.
- Instead of waiting to place
a single lay to complete our Hedge, we now place a series of
lays which will get matched at timed intervals, once the
game goes "In Play".
The effect of that is to gradually reduce our bet liability
as these lays gradually get matched.
- We bet 0-0 before the Kick
Off, and then offer all our lays as soon as the game goes
"In Play", so there is no sitting about to do, watching our
Betfair screen for 45 minutes.
A big problem
before this fine tuning was that if a goal was scored before we
placed our lay to complete our Hedge, we would lose all our bet
stake. This updated Excel spreadsheet reduces that risk, by gradually
reducing our bet liability as time passes in the game. Once all our lays are matched, we have good profit if a goal is
scored, and break even if there is no goal by Half Time. Here is an example of the gain in profits over a normal hedge of
0-0 using an initial bet of £20 on 0-0. 0-0 bet odds before the kick off 12.0, Lay at odds of 7.0 (at
about 25 minutes). Normal Hedge profit £11.43 before commission. New strategy profit £22.63 after commission, providing a
goal is scored (after about 25
minutes), break even if no goal by Half Time. If a goal is scored before 25 minutes, the normal Hedge loses
£20, but this new strategy loses smaller amounts which gradually
reduce as 25 minutes approaches.
I'll report back after testing this on a few games. Good luck
with your trading, Howard. |
June 4th
2009. Trade 0-0 in Betfair Correct Score market. In between creating videos, I've been trying to get back into a
bit of research on football strategies. I was looking at trading the 0-0 score in Betfair's Correct
Score market, and had a bit of a brainwave yesterday. I built a new spreadsheet today for Hedging (betting and laying)
the odds of the 0-0 score. As with some other football strategies, ideally this strategy
needs a goal to be scored to make a profit, but stakes can be
adjusted on the spreadsheet to show a profit whether a goal is
scored or if the score remains 0-0. This is the basic strategy :-
- Before the Kick Off, bet the
0-0 score in the Correct Score market.
- After some time has passed
in the game, Lay 0-0.
Nothing unusual there you might say, but if a goal is scored
in the First Half after we have placed our bet and lay, this
Hedge trade shows a much bigger profit than a normal bet and
lay of the 0-0 odds . . . . providing we stake correctly.
- If the score is still 0-0 at
Half Time, place a 2nd lay to break even on the whole trade.
To sum up. We use a bet and
a lay if a goal is scored, and place a 2nd lay if the score
remains 0-0. If a goal is scored we make very good profits, but if the score
remains 0-0, we aim to break even. We can adjust our stakes to show a profit at 0-0 or any other
score if we choose, but those profits will be smaller than if we
aim to profit only if a goal is scored in the First Half of the
game.
I will be testing this new
strategy in the next week or two. Looking back on my records of the odds in past matches, this
strategy can easily produce 50% or 100% more profit than your
normal bet and lay Hedge of the 0-0 score line. The size of those profits depend on how long we are prepared to
wait before placing our In Play lay - but after all, that is
normal for any Hedge trade. Hedge profits are always related to time passing whilst the odds
change, or other factors such as goals being scored of course. The difference here is that profits reach very impressive levels
if we can wait 20 or 25 minutes or longer into the game before
placing our lay on 0-0.
Next, I'll be looking at Dutching
0-0 with other scores and involve a goal to see if bumper
profits can also be made from that. I've already done some work on Dutching other scores in a
similar way to this before, but I didn't involve 0-0 and I
didn't use a goal as a trigger for profits. Now that I have discovered how to combine Hedging 0-0 with a
goal, maybe I can sort out Dutching several scores by using a
goal as well this time around. Exciting stuff. . . . . . . . I'll keep you informed.
Good luck
with your trading, Howard |
May 22nd
2009. Videos on hold. I am now looking to transfer my videos to UTube, so I have
removed my video links for the time being. In order to move my videos, I need to use some different video
software. Once I get sorted out with this second software package, I'll
put some more links up, and maybe then I can get back to looking
at some new strategies again.
Good luck
with your trading, Howard |
May 15th
2009. Mission accomplished. After a couple of hard weeks, I've moved all my web sites onto a
new server. In line with that, I've sorted out some domain names which are
now shown on the links above. I should be able to get on with my life again now, and look at
developing something new. As usual, I'll post my progress on here. If you visit my web sites and find any links that don't work,
please e-mail me and I'll sort them out.
Good luck
with your trading, Howard |
May 4th
2009. New web site location and videos. I am now working on moving all my web sites, including this one,
onto a new server. This blog will then live on
www.strategy-blog.co.uk
a new domain name for my blog.
I will keep both this web site open
for a while until I get traffic transferred to the new site -
that's if I can get Google to find the new location.
Last week, I got hold of some
software for publishing videos to a web site. Once I get to grips with that, I will be able to show just what
my spreadsheets can do, and also explain strategies more
clearly. That should be miles better than trying to explain things in
writing.
So far, on playback, my videos
have some old bloke droning on doing the commentary. I was expecting a sexy young fella's voice. . . . . . . dream
on. Good luck
with your trading, Howard |
April 24th
2009. The end of an era. I found out today that the free web space that I use for my web
sites on Geocities will cease to exist sometime this summer. I will be looking for alternative free space for my web sites,
and once I get things transferred, I'll post the new links on
here and on my other web sites..
It will take time for traffic to
find my new location. I only hope my Google rankings get back up to where they are at
present. This is something of a disaster. It will take a lot of work to transfer my sites, which include a
few holiday cottage sites, but my main concern is my spreadsheet
web sites. I get a lot of entertainment out of the enquiries that they
generate.
If I disappear from the face of
the Internet planet, you'll know I've been cut off in my prime. Oh dear. Oh dear, Howard. |
April 22nd
2009. Lay the Draw testing ... short odds solution.
I don't like to see blogs that show results of trades and
discussions about actual trades and profits, but I feel the need
to show the result of my trade on the Liverpool - Arsenal match
from last night, Tuesday April 21st. The match finished as a draw with a score of 4-4. I layed the draw before the kick off for £20 at odds of 3.9 and
placed an insurance bet of £4.64 on 0-0 at odds of 13.5 to break
even if there were no goals. At 0-1 to Arsenal, the odds of the draw were shorter than before
the Kick Off, but using my new exit strategy, I was still able
to exit with a profit in the Match Odds market. My insurance bet in the Correct Scores put me slightly into the
red overall. This is a screenshot of my Betfair position once I had traded
out of the game.
You can see that my losing bet on
0-0 puts me into the red with Plus £1.91
for the Draw result in Match Odds, less £4.64 for the 0-0 bet in Correct Scores. My bank was still pretty much undamaged, but without this new
exit strategy, I could have taken a substantial hit.
After the first goal, there were
only a few minutes during this game when the odds of the Draw
were bigger than before the Kick Off - - -
- after the score of 2-1 at 56
minutes until 2-2 at 67 minutes,
- and again when the score
reached 3-4 at 90 minutes, until 4-4 at 93 minutes.
At all other times after the
first goal at 36 minutes, it was impossible to show a profit by
betting the draw at bigger odds than before the kick off.
I used my exit strategy to trade
to profit after the first goal at 36 minutes, and as you can
see, I had finished trading by 54 minutes into the game. I recovered that loss and more tonight, Wednesday, in the next
game I traded, without increasing my stakes in any way. This screenshot and description of how the odds performed in the
Liverpool - Arsenal game last night shows how my exit strategy
got me out of trouble in what was a very awkward game in which
to trade the Draw..
When the odds of the draw
lengthened at 56 minutes to be bigger than before the Kick Off,
I had already made my exit from the Match Odds market to
profit. Only my insurance bet on the 0-0 score line made this a losing
trade overall. This is becoming a very safe way to trade football matches.
My Hedge The Draw spreadsheet package now contains 2
very powerful spreadsheets - Hedge 3 Bets, and this new Dutching
spreadsheet - at present, yours for only a tenner.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
April 18th
Lay the Draw
strategy for Betfair Match Odds, short
Draw odds solution.... Testing. I have been testing this strategy by watching several games at a
time on Betfair in order to get a game or 2 in which the odds of
the draw didn't lengthen sufficiently after one goal. I haven't watched many games like that unfortunately, but I have
still been able to improve my trading of the draw.
Now that I have this new exit
strategy for games in which the outsider of the 2 teams scores
first, or the odds of the draw don't lengthen for some other
reason, these are the only 2 scenarios that I can come up with
at present that might cause some financial damage.
- 2 quick goals that take the
score to 1-1 and the game ends 1-1.
- An early goal
and an equalizer scored well into the 2nd half (roughly 60 to 80
minutes).
At present, I would expect to
profit or exit pretty much unscathed from all other games.
I have started to look at placing
an insurance bet on 0-0 to Hedge the 0-0 score with the draw for
a profit if the game ends 0-0. The insurance bet to profit is a little more expensive than
betting 0-0 to break even. However, if a game ends 0-0, the profit from a lay of the draw
and a bet of 0-0 for profit is quite big in comparison to any
other part of this trade. By placing a slightly bigger 0-0 insurance bet, profits from
games with goals are reduced, but at the moment, I feel these
0-0 profits might be worth pursuing.
Example. Tomorrow's Man.
Utd. - Everton game. Odds of the draw = 3.70. Odds for 0-0 = 10.0. Lay the draw for £20 at odds of 3.70 = liabilities of 20 x 2.7 =
£54.00. Divide £54 by the 0-0 odds minus 1 = £54 divided by 9 = £6.00. Bet £6.00 on the 0-0 score line, and we break even (before
commission) if the game ends 0-0. We have bet winnings of £54 from our bet of 0-0, and liabilities
of £54 from our lay of the draw.
Now, if we decide to Hedge to
profit if there is no score, we need to bet £7.40 on the 0-0
score line. If the game ends 0-0, that bet guarantees winnings of £12.60
before commission deductions. Here are the maths :- Winning bet on 0-0 = 9 x £7.40 = £66.60, less liabilities from
our lay of the draw 2.7 x £20 = £54.00. £66.60 - £56 = £12.60 profit if the game ends 0-0. If the game doesn't end in a draw, we have a successful lay of
£20 minus a losing bet stake of £7.40 = a profit of £12.60.
Of course in practice, we
wouldn't leave ourselves exposed in such a way. If a goal is scored, we must take some action. At 1-0 or 0-1, another goal could take the score to 1-1 and we
would have big liabilities from our lay of the draw, plus our
losing stake from our bet of 0-0.
After one goal is scored, the
odds of the draw to break even would need to be :- 5.30 for the £6.00 break even stake. 5.90 for the £7.40 hedge to profit stake. Any odds above those at one goal, and both show a profit.
If Everton score first tomorrow,
we wouldn't expect the odds of the draw to increase much since
Man. Utd. are a very strong favourite. If Everton score first, I would employ my new exit strategy.
Just to repeat what is on the
previous post below :- This exit strategy for games in which the odds of the draw don't
lengthen will definitely not be available anywhere
else, and I would guess that it would be very difficult to
duplicate using a calculator.
My Hedge The Draw spreadsheet package now contains 2
very powerful spreadsheets - Hedge 3 Bets, and this new Dutching
spreadsheet - at present, yours for only a tenner.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
April 3rd
2009. Lay the Draw strategy for Betfair Match Odds, short
Draw odds solution. I have abandoned Betfair's Under / Over 2.5 goals markets for a
while in favour of this old favourite :-
- Lay the Draw.
- After a goal, Bet the Draw
(as the Draw odds are now bigger) to exit the market with a
Hedge profit.
Quite a long time ago, I built 2
spreadsheets which enabled me to Dutch a boatload of bets or
lays, and equalize those stakes to exit to profit, providing I
traded to either an under round book if I was betting, or an
over round book if I was laying. As you probably know, Dutching means placing several Bets for an
equal profit whatever the outcome of your event, or placing
several Lays for an equal profit whatever the outcome of your event.
I didn't have a particular
strategy in mind when I built those 2 Dutching sheets, so I had
no use for them until just last week. A spreadsheet customer sent me a bet and lay solution that he
used to exit the market if he had Layed the draw, and a goal had
been scored by the outsider of the 2 teams. As you probably know, under those circumstances, quite often the
odds of the Draw don't lengthen significantly, so it can be
impossible to Bet the Draw to exit your trade to a Hedge profit. If the least fancied of the 2 teams scores first, the market
expects the favourite team to equalize and score more goals to
go on and win the game - therefore, the odds of the Draw don't
lengthen at a score of 1-0 or 0-1. Also, an early goal scored in a game with 2 evenly rated teams
can also cause the Draw odds to be quite static at a score of
1-0 or 0-1.
I took a look at my customer's
betting and laying solution, which worked a treat, but his exit
strategy left the trade with unbalanced profits. Here, I had found a use for my spreadsheets. My sheets use a different exit strategy from that sent to me by
my spreadsheet customer, but after using my new strategy, we
usually have profits balanced across all 3 outcomes, Home team
win, Away team win, and Draw.
Now if I Lay the Draw and the
odds don't lengthen at 1-0 or 0-1, I can immediately put my
trade into profit, and exit my trade in most games with a
profit. The best scenario for a profit if the Draw odds don't lengthen,
is if the favourite of the 2 teams
scores an equalizing goal to get the score to 1-1 well before
the end of the game.. At that point we can exit to profit. At present, the only scenarios I can see that would cause a
loss, are :-
- 2 quick goals that take the
game to 1-1 and the game ends 1-1.
- An early goal
and a very late equalizer with the game ending 1-1.
- The outsider of the 2 teams scores first
and a very late
equalizer with the game ending 1-1.
At present, I would expect a
profit from all other games. This strategy should work in any game, whether the 2 teams are
equally matched before the kick off or if one of the teams is a
very strong favourite. We are still looking to Hedge the Draw by Laying Low and Betting
High, but this new exit strategy makes the trade a lot safer by
providing a solution to the Draw odds not lengthening problem. If you use an insurance bet on 0-0, this strategy will usually
recover your lost stake if a goal or goals are scored and still
show a profit.
I will probably be putting my
price up for this Hedge The Draw spreadsheet package. I have several customers doing a bit of testing at present, so
if you are interested in trading the Draw very safely, now is
the time to step in and get a cheap spreadsheet package. Once I have feedback from the testing, and I have more
experience of the best way to use this exit strategy (as there
are several options), the price of this Hedge The Draw
spreadsheet package will be going up. This exit strategy will definitely not be available anywhere
else, and I would guess that it would be very difficult to
duplicate using a calculator.
My Hedge The Draw spreadsheet package now contains 2
very powerful spreadsheets - Hedge 3 Bets, and this new Dutching
spreadsheet - at present, yours for only a tenner.
Good luck with your trading, Howard. |
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