|
Horse racing draw advantage bias GOODWOOD 5F
Stalls usually positioned LOW
Link
to course and distance menu Race
Of The Week
Goodwood 6F Goodwood 7F Goodwood
1m
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
|
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| No
of
R
U
N
E
R
S |
8 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9 |
|
1 |
11 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 14 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
111 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 15 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 18 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 20 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 22 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
<--Good or better --> |
2 |
3 |
8 |
2 |
6 |
9 |
|
|
23 |
32 |
|
During the 7 seasons 1997 - 2003, stalls 1-6 were favoured in races up to 13
runners, and as the number of runners increased to more than 15 runners, the Top 6 stalls then produced
most winners.
There appeared to be an advantage next to the Low running rail with small fields, but as
the numbers of runners increased, faster ground was to be found towards
the middle of the track
and towards the high side of the course, or at least away from the Low rail.
That's my theory based on those results.
The 2004 results did not follow that pattern, so this c/dist was relegated
from the Stalls To Follow list, but 2 of the 3 results on good or better going in 2005 followed that pattern.
On good or better going in 2006, the winners were mostly drawn High in
races up to 13 runners, and Low in larger fields - the complete opposite
of the earlier 7 year trend described above.
Analysis.
On good or better going, in races of 8 to 12 runners, stalls 1 to 6 won 8 of 11
races.
In 2006, 2 of 4 winners were drawn 8 of 11 and 9 of 9.
11 of 11 was a 2004 winner.
There are spreads of results in races of 13, 14, and 15 runners.
In races of 18 or more runners, the Top 4 stalls won 10 of 20 races 50%, but in
2006 under those conditions, only 1 winner in 3 races started from the Top half,
drawn 12 of 19 runners.
Splits start to appear in races of 15 runners or more, but not all of
those races split.
As a general rule, splits usually produce spreads of results, and spreads appear
to be building up throughout most of this chart.
There is no recommendation for this course and distance.
On good/good to
soft in places or softer going, in races of 8 to 12 runners,
stalls 1 to 6 won 6 of 7 races.
In races of 13 or more runners, the Top half of the draw won 4 of 5 races.
5 and 7 races are very small sample sizes.
2006 results :- 3-9, 3-9,
6-9, 9-9, 8-11, 11-12, 14-14, 2-18, 12-19, 4-20
2005 results :-
5-8, 4-11, 4-12, 9-13,
13-13, 5-17, 9-16,
20-20
2004 results (for interest) :- 11-11, 12-13, 1-16, 7-16, 1-18, 1-22, 10-22
Copyright © 2005 [H
Hutchinson]. All rights reserved.
|
|